The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 16, 2023

She was named to CIO Magazone’s “40-Under-40” (2017) and received the Industry Innovation Award/Power 100 in 2019. Previously, she was CIO at the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii, and managing director in the quantitative strategies group at the Maryland State Retirement Agency.

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Assets Management Asset Allocation Risk Management 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 19, 2024

million SAAR in December; Months-of-Supply above December 2019 Excerpt: Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2022 and 2023. Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78 Sales declined 6.2%

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Sales 115

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

December 5, 2022) The Super Wealthy versus the Merely Rich (February 7, 2022) Wealth Distribution in America (April 11, 2019) Composition of Wealth Differs: Middle Class to the Top 1% (June 5, 2019) Wages in America (2013-2021) The post Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 306

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure. A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. Almost nobody does this well consistently over time.

Economy 312

Economy Management Investing Investments 312

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ). Decision-making is being increasingly supported by artificial intelligence and autonomous systems (Calvaresi et al. A decentralized system (e.g.,

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy. Workers upskilled and launched new businesses. The balance of power had shifted.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

(aka The Hidden World of Failure ) (October 23, 2020) Stock Ownership : Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S.

Distribution 325

Distribution Retirement Retirement Planning Taxes 325

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6 25-54: -0.3 55-59: -0.5 60-64: -0.2

Numbers 227

Numbers Retirement Economics 227

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%. a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8%

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

NDR Recession Probability Model: 1% chance of a recession currently NDR via Ryan Detrick Side note : The yield curve has been inverted for what feels like forever; note the 10 Year minus the 3-month (created by Duke Fuqua professor Harvey Campbell ) inverted in 2019, briefly in 2020, then went deep once the FOPMC began raising rates in 2022: Despite (..)

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

JUNE 16, 2023

Previously : America’s Corporate Welfare Queens (November 13, 2013) Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Destroy Jobs (January 24, 2019) Generational Reset of Minimum Wage (November 30, 2021) Wages in America The post Americonned appeared first on The Big Picture. I hope you’ll check us out: Americonned.

Numbers 334

Numbers 334

The Big Picture

JULY 22, 2022

The lovely maroon over black version you see below was sold in July 2019 for $77,312, prior to its most recent renovation. Total production of 4.2 coupes was 9,548 cars with just 1,182 made in right-hand drive. Clean versions of these go for $75-100 and those rated “excellent’ can be twice that. Source: Bring A Trailer.

Engineering 279

Engineering 279

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. The first is a group of charts covering two decades through 2019, titled “ Prevalence of Emotional Payload in Headlines.” The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2022

Amazon.Bomb, May 31, 1999 (June 3, 2019). HQ2: Understanding What Happened & Why (February 19, 2019). (January 12, 2022). 2021’s Surprising Laggard: Amazon (January 5, 2022). Unprecedented Access to Bezos +Amazon Execs (June 15, 2021). The post How Amazon Become Ordinary appeared first on The Big Picture.

Advertising 361

Advertising Retail Electronics Insurance 361

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 9, 2023

She was named to Chief Investment Officer Magazines’ 40-Under-40, as well as winning the 2017 Industry Innovation Award, and a Power 100 member in 2019. Previously, she was Chief Investment Officer of Hawaii’s Employees’ Retirement System (“HIERS”).

Engineering 325

Engineering Management Portfolio Assets 325

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Previously : Cancelling Michael Lewis (October 5, 2023) Revisiting Liar’s Poker, 30 Years Later (April 22, 2022) MiB: Michael Lewis on Pandemic Planning (May 8, 2021) MiB: Michael Lewis on Coaches and Risk (May 25, 2020) MIB: Michael Lewis, Podcaster (April 6, 2019) MIB: Michael Lewis on a Writer’s Life (December 13, 2016) Michael Lewis’ Portrait (..)

Education 333

Education Management Planning Marketing 333

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

Random Shocks and Business Cycles by Thorsten Drautzburg Economic Insights, Q1 2019 Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia An astonishing record – of complete failure Tim Harford FT, May 30, 2014 The post Can Economists Predict Recessions? By Jeremy Majerovitz St. Louis Fed, September 26, 2023 Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict?

Economy 298

Economy Banking Economics 298

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

inflation over the 2019-21 period was due to the jump in demand for goods while 40 percent owed to supply-side issues that magnified the impact of this higher demand.”. This raises the obvious question as to what increasing FOMC rates are going to do to fix the 40% that is supply-chain-related problems.

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Like they did in 1995 or like they did in 2019, it’s kind of a victory lap. “ Well, in 1995 and 2019, risk markets took off.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2022

youngmoney.co) Why we can never go back to 2019. (newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Kyla Scanlon, "The laziest way to create meaning in your life is to find an enemy." kyla.substack.com) Americans are getting lonelier. theatlantic.com).

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Media Assets Taxes 245

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Previously : Winner Takes All Applies to Stocks, Too (August 1, 2019) Wasn’t Passive Supposed to Blow Up During the Next Crash?

Management 312

Management Investing Investments Numbers 312

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

MiB: Women in Finance Dominique Mielle, Canyon Capital ( coming March 24, 2023) Maria Vassalou, Goldman Sachs Asset Management March 4, 2023 Jennifer Grancio, Engine No. economist at Morgan Stanley August 19, 2017 Dana Telsey of TAG Retail Group January 7, 2017 Bethany McLean on Enron and Wall Street’s PR Machine March 22, 2016 J.P.

Wealth Management 162

Wealth Management Management Engineering Investing 162

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is at the same level as the same week in 2019 (100.5% Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 140

Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 19, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 27.5%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2024

It is not unusually to get a small increase after the holidays; however, inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 38.0%). Click on graph for larger image.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

Despite what you may have heard, the Fed isn’t the only factor driving equity markets. However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 35.7%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 29, 2024

Inventory will likely decrease a little seasonally until the Spring (it could remain mostly flat for a few months like in 2019). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 38.6%). Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.6% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image.

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Calculated Risk

APRIL 29, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 37.2%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The red line is for 2024. Inventory was up 31.8% Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

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Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 36.8%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 22.6%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2024. Inventory was up 33.4%

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Coming out of the pandemic lockdown and looking to build on the “ Wealth|Stack ” concept they pioneered in 2019, the partnership between RWM and Advisor Circle threw the gauntlet down to anyone thinking about hosting a conference: Stop boring us. Stop throwing us into giant windowless locations.

Financial Planning 340

Financial Planning Financial Advice Food Financial Advisor 340

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 36.6%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 10, 2023

The list appears to be mostly (but not exclusively) behavioral finance types; here is the short-list of laurates, plus a few related columns of Nobel Winners: Danny Kahneman on Noise (May 15, 2021) Paul Krugman on Zombie Ideas (February 15, 2020) Gene Fama (with David Booth) on Efficient Markets (November 9, 2019) Michael Spence, on the Dynamics of (..)

Investing 147

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 147

The Big Picture

MAY 6, 2024

Previously : MIB: Roger Ibbotson of Yale, Ibbotson Associates, and Zebra Capital (March 23, 2019) Source : 9% Forever? Kudos to Ibbotson and Sinquefield for their work, and to Justin Fox for reminding us of their contributions (in 2005!). By Justin Fox Fortune Magazine, December 26, 2005 _ 1. ” 2.

Numbers 290

Numbers Investing Investments Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2024

The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 29.4%). Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is slowly closing. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Also in industry news this week: A survey indicates that while financial advisors remain the most trusted source of financial advice, they might increasingly encounter client questions and ideas that originated from social media Following the transition of advisors and clients from TD Ameritrade and amid competition from competing RIA custodians, Charles (..)

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Financial Advice Financial Advisor Tax Planning 246