Carson Wealth

MARCH 4, 2024

.” — Winston Churchill The S&P 500 was up in both January and February for the first time since 2019. The economy continues to appear in good shape. s consumer-driven economy. It’s only slightly elevated relative to the 2017-2019 average of 2.9%. across 2018-2019. For perspective, it was running at 2.6%

Marketing 90

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 90

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

As Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friends.” From the end of 2019 through March 15, 2024, the S&P 500 has gained 71%. Keep in mind that even two cuts for an economy that’s running strong is a welcome tailwind for growth. That’s a big jump and acknowledgement that the economy is strong. to 2.1% (real GDP growth).

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 97

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

But now we have a healthy economy, well-contained inflation, a Federal Reserve set to cut rates, improving productivity, record earnings, and stocks at all-time highs. As we wrote in our 2024 Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye” ( download here ), productivity growth is a game-changer for the economy. at the end of 2022 to 2.6%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. From the end of 2019 through 2024 Q2, real GDP growth was revised up from 9.4% annualized pace from 2005-2019).

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economics 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point. Right now, it says the economy grew 2.4% Recent data suggest a major slowdown is not in the cards.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 98

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). in 2019, 5.9% Since the end of 2019, the S&P 500 is up 92%. in April 2023 to 4.3%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

The bottom line is the economy is strong because the labor market is strong. The global economy was in shambles, and people were losing their jobs all around. The economy created 275,000 jobs in February, well above expectations for an increase of 200,000. For perspective, monthly job growth in 2019 averaged 166,000.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 97

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The current number remains consistent with the 2018-2019 average, despite a larger labor force now. The insured unemployment rate also hasn’t deviated meaningfully from what we’ve seen the past couple of years or the 2018-2019 average. A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Carson Wealth

APRIL 29, 2024

The Headline GDP Number Masks a Strong Economy The economy grew 1.6% Excluding these categories provides a much clearer picture of actual spending and production in the economy, i.e., final demand after adjusting for inflation. in the first quarter, well above the 2010-2019 average pace of 2.4%. Think of it like core GDP.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

But we think now is more like the normalization cuts we saw in 1984, 1995, and 2019, all of which saw continued gains a year later. It turns out they are and the last time we saw this was in 2019. All this is very positive for the economy. Are rate cuts near all-time highs normal? Matching the 13.9%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.) on average, well above the 7.1%

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down. Despite the U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 9, 2024

Optimism over lower taxes, a stronger economy, animal spirits, and strong earnings all were likely reasons for the surge. The economy created 227,000 jobs in November, close to expectations, which somewhat made up for the low 36,000 number in October (revised up from 12,000). For reference, the 2019 average was 166,000.

Marketing 69

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 69

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

Although many were worried, the economy remained quite strong and odds were high the Fed was done hiking rates. The economy is normalizing, which could loosen tight financial conditions and boost cyclical activity. million in 2019. The October payroll report indicates the economy is slowing from its red-hot pace.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Transportation 97

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

ECONOMY The economy saw blockbuster productivity growth in the third quarter. ECONOMY: PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH COULD BE A GAME CHANGER Lost in all the consternation over a weak payroll report this month was robust productivity data, which was released earlier. annual pace, which is faster than the 2010-2019 pace of 1.2%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Our Leading Economic Indicators Still Point to a Strong Economy A couple of softer-than-expected economic report cards recently came in — first quarter GDP growth and the April payroll report — and suddenly, calls for an impending recession have resumed.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 11, 2023

Strong wage growth and lower inflation have helped the economy stay resilient. Why Has the Economy Stayed Resilient? A large part of the economy’s resilience has to do with a strong labor market that has surprised many economists and market-watchers. September can be a rough month for stocks, but it doesn’t have to be bad.

Marketing 93

Marketing Marketing Government Economy 93

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 16, 2024

Interestingly, August also had a perfect week, making this the first time since September and October 2019 we saw back-to-back months with a perfect week. The bottom line is if the economy was truly about to fall apart like so many economists keep telling us, we’d expect to see more weakness in high-yield bonds right here.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 96

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

That is particularly meaningful because households have more income to spend elsewhere — keeping consumption and the economy humming. The positive news from the October CPI report is the economy is experiencing broad disinflation, and there’s more to come. The October “surprise” came on the back of lower gasoline prices, which fell 5%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Distribution 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 20, 2024

Despite the path of the economy, inflation, the election, geopolitics, or the Fed’s actions, what matters at the end of the day is what markets do. That’s the slowest pace since August 2021 and not far above the 2018-2019 average of 3.6%. but well above the 2018-2019 average of 3.2%. That’s similar to the pace of 2019.

Numbers 97

Numbers Marketing Marketing Insurance 97

Carson Wealth

JUNE 17, 2024

And companies can grow earnings as long as the global economy grows, which is something it has been doing much more often than not for several millennia. There have been short-term fluctuations when the economy has slowed, but the overall trend has been strong. economy can continue to grow, and the rest follows.

Marketing 86

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 86

Carson Wealth

APRIL 17, 2023

The first signal is the S&P 500 had its best first quarter since 2019, up 7.0%, which came on the heels of a 7.1% The chart below shows annualized growth rates of disposable income, employee compensation (across all workers in the economy), and inflation. That’s positive for consumer spending, which makes up 70% of the economy.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Food Economy 98

Carson Wealth

JULY 17, 2023

Take note the other years they expected lower prices during the final six months of the year were 1999, 2019, 2020, and 2021. That’s still higher than the 2018-2019 average of about 3-3.5%. The NASDAQ 100 Index includes publicly-traded companies from most sectors in the global economy, the major exception being financial services.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Food Compliance 98

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

economy continues to look solid, with markets rallying Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report. Of course, markets will ultimately respond to movement in the economy and corporate America, which we discuss below. economy, and the job market is leading the way. For perspective, payroll growth averaged 166,000 in 2019.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 96

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

He once again emphasized that the risk of not doing enough to curb inflation was now balanced with the risk of holding rates too high for too long (and potentially breaking the economy in the process). Lower interest rates can have significant positive effects on the economy, including on mortgage rates.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 96

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 16, 2024

Still, lets focus on where excess inflation is coming from for CPI and compare the November data to December 2019 (when headline and core CPI were up 2.3% in December 2019. Thats adding 0.52%-points to excess headline CPI relative to December 2019, and 0.65%-points to excess core CPI. y/y versus the 2018-2019 average of 3.7%.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Insurance Food 52

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 14, 2024

As long-time readers know, Carson Investment Research has been on record since November of 2022 that the lows were indeed in and prices were going higher, and that the economy would surprise to the upside and avoid a recession. over the past year (bottom panel of the chart), which is in line with what we saw before the pandemic in 2019.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Numbers Food 96

David Nelson

JULY 25, 2022

Most have a compliance division to monitor employee trading. Term Limits In an appearance before a Senate sub-committee in 2019 Nick Tomboulides, Executive Director of U.S.Term Limits said the following The first three words in our Constitution are “We the People.” You don’t have to be a corporate insider to meet the test.

Compliance 98

Compliance Portfolio Management Management Manufacturing 98

Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

NSE also oversees compliance by its members and listed companies with relevant rules and regulations. Growth potential: With a solid growth history, NSE is well-positioned to capitalize on India’s expanding economy, which promises significant opportunities for further financial market expansion.

Compliance 90

Compliance Banking Management Risk Management 90

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

or more percentage points above the lowest point of that average over the last 12 months, the economy is likely in the early months of a recession. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). from 2017-2019, and around 1.3-1.6% It’s correctly indicated every recession since 1970.

Marketing 72

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 72

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 21, 2023

Vehicle production is now higher than it was at any point in 2019. The economy has surprised to the upside and stocks had one of their best starts to a year. Resilient Economy May Be Accelerating Another month, another slew of economic data that not only shows the economy is resilient, but also that it may be accelerating.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 10, 2023

The big picture is the economy is normalizing. As we noted last week, June 2023 marked the second-best six-month start for the S&P 500 this century, beaten only by 2019. Big Picture: The Economy Is Normalizing We started this year discussing how the economy has been at the “edge of normal” in our 2023 outlook.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 5, 2023

Instead, the economy is showing resilience. The economy created 339,000 jobs in May, beating expectations for the 14th consecutive month. However, in the second half of the year, we expect investors to realize the economy is not headed for a recession (more on that below), which should help broaden the bull market. million jobs.

Economy 52

Economy Numbers Compliance Banking 52

Carson Wealth

JULY 5, 2023

But instead, stocks had one of their best six-month starts and the economy shows no signs of slowing. Business investment is rising once again, and that’s a big deal for the economy. since last year, and this pace is higher than at any point in 2019. The first half of the year is in the books, and it was great for investors.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Electronics 52

Carson Wealth

MAY 15, 2023

Stocks tend to lead the economy, so just because the economic headlines are poor now doesn’t mean they will be in the future. Stocks tend to sniff out better times, and we continue to believe the economy will surprise to the upside the second half of this year. In the face of banking and economic concerns, stocks are holding the line.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Food Economy 52

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 28, 2023

Recent economic data from China show that the world’s second largest economy is in trouble. economy is likely to be minimal. In short, China’s economy is in trouble. Usually, the industrial side of the economy makes up for slow consumer spending, but not this time. per year between 2010 and 2019. In the U.S.,

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52