Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $185 billion, a slight reduction from the previous quarter but still elevated compared to the average volumes seen through the 2018-2019 period. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

Banking 324

Banking Accounting Economics 324

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). The red line is for 2023. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019. rise from 2023Q4. Balances now stand at $17.69

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. inflation over the 2019-21 period was due to the jump in demand for goods while 40 percent owed to supply-side issues that magnified the impact of this higher demand.”. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

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APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

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AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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AUGUST 11, 2022

percent in the fourth quarter of 2019,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. According to Walsh, of all the economic indicators that can lead to mortgage delinquencies, the U.S. According to Walsh, of all the economic indicators that can lead to mortgage delinquencies, the U.S.

Economics 363

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Note: I will look at comparing to 2019 to remove the pandemic distortions.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. Short answer: Maybe a quarter ahead (but not always). Beyond that short time frame, it’s simply too variable: “These questions have taken on particular importance recently. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 19, 2024

The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Wages are cumulative too.

Economics 137

Economics Budgeting Distribution Economy 137

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.” Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. “More momentum in planning, while not as strong as data centers, was seen across most segments and indicates confidence in 2025 market conditions.

Healthcare 278

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 278

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.

Retail 314

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 314

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? Inventory is always something to watch!

Economics 290

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. Mortgage originations, which include refinances, fell to $498 billion in the fourth quarter, representing a return to lower levels last seen in 2019. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. Balances now stand $2.75

Banking 246

Banking Accounting Economics 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in October to 4.28 million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

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DECEMBER 30, 2022

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. However, with the dearth of new listings, it still seems unlikely - but not impossible - that inventory will be back up to the 2017 - 2019 levels. The bottom line is inventory will probably increase year-over-year in 2023.

Economics 264

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in December.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 6, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining growing balances of home equity lines of credit (HELOC). “ trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. rise from 2024Q1.

Retail 325

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 325

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2019 63.3% 2019 63.3% 3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 3.5%

Economics 242

Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ). Decision-making is being increasingly supported by artificial intelligence and autonomous systems (Calvaresi et al. A decentralized system (e.g.,

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Occupational licensing is out of control. wsj.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Top clicks last week on the site.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6 25-54: -0.3 55-59: -0.5 60-64: -0.2

Numbers 227

Numbers Retirement Economics 227

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in June to 4.22 YoY in June.

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the composition of auto loan balances and performance by age and income. Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels ,” said Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research advisor at the New York Fed.

Accounting 208

Accounting Economics Banking 208