The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ). Decision-making is being increasingly supported by artificial intelligence and autonomous systems (Calvaresi et al. A decentralized system (e.g.,

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. npr.org) Occupational licensing is out of control. wsj.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Top clicks last week on the site.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2017 - 2019 levels. As expected, inventory hit new record lows early in 2022, and is finishing the year up significantly year-over-year - but not close to the 2017 - 2019 levels.

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6 25-54: -0.3 55-59: -0.5 60-64: -0.2

Numbers 227

Numbers Retirement Economics 227

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Like they did in 1995 or like they did in 2019, it’s kind of a victory lap. “ Well, in 1995 and 2019, risk markets took off. If the Fed is cutting rates.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

The Big Picture

APRIL 26, 2024

” We discuss how his unusual career developed, with his covering both Investment strategy AND economic analysis. She served as the Chief Revenue Officer at Microsoft, COO, and Chief Marketing Officer at SoFi (2015-2019), Most recently, she was President of Honey, where she orchestrated the sale of to Paypal for $4 billion.

Asset Allocation 173

Asset Allocation Advertising Engineering Media 173

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 10, 2024

So, although the entire 227-year span of McQuarrie's analysis from 1793 to 2019 was weakly supportive of Siegel's conclusions, there were subperiods where bonds actually outperformed stocks, leading McQuarrie to conclude that there was no consistent relationship between asset outperformance and length of holding period to which values must revert.

Asset Allocation 246

Asset Allocation Wealth Accumulation Assets Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 21, 2023

In the United States alone, individuals donated close to $300 billion to charity in 2019. Even in the market of good intentions, however, it’s important to provide some economic incentives to drive organizations. Many of us believe in the power of giving to create meaningful change.

Banking 289

Banking Investing Investments Management 289

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2024

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. I don’t expect inventory to reach 2019 levels but based on the recent increase in inventory maybe more than half the gap between 2019 and 2023 levels will close in 2024. In October, the months-of-supply was at 3.6

Sales 118

Sales Economics 118

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. in the third quarter.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The volume of newly originated auto loans was $185 billion, a slight reduction from the previous quarter but still elevated compared to the average volumes seen through the 2018-2019 period. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

Banking 129

Banking Accounting Economics 129

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough). The red line is for 2023. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 75

Economics Sales Economy Food 75

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019. rise from 2023Q4. Balances now stand at $17.69

Economics 122

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 122

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2024 and a few predictions: • Question #2 for 2024: How much will job growth slow in 2024? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2023. million to 1.5

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 127

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 127

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 11, 2022

percent in the fourth quarter of 2019,” said Marina Walsh, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. According to Walsh, of all the economic indicators that can lead to mortgage delinquencies, the U.S. According to Walsh, of all the economic indicators that can lead to mortgage delinquencies, the U.S.

Economics 145

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 145

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Note: I will look at comparing to 2019 to remove the pandemic distortions.

Sales 145

Sales Economy Economics Investing 145

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Brief excerpt: Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2019 levels. Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Question #10 for 2024: Will inventory increase further in 2024? Inventory is always something to watch!

Economics 116

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 116

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 122

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 122

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. rise from 2024Q2. Balances now stand at $17.94

Economics 123

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 123

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The Bearish Narratives Look Even Worse Now We just got a slew of economic data revisions from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and our first response was, Wow! From the end of 2019 through 2024 Q2, real GDP growth was revised up from 9.4% Guess What? Let’s start here: GDP growth over the last 5 years was revised up.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Economics 96

Calculated Risk

JULY 10, 2024

The DMI is up 43% from June 2019 levels, signaling strong construction spending in 2025.” Commercial construction is typically a lagging economic indicator. “More momentum in planning, while not as strong as data centers, was seen across most segments and indicates confidence in 2025 market conditions.

Healthcare 111

Healthcare Planning Education Retail 111

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Credit card balances experienced a large jump in the third quarter, consistent with strong consumer spending and real GDP growth,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.

Retail 125

Retail Banking Accounting Economics 125

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

percent set on September 18, 2019. “This isn’t only a prediction, this is a commitment,” he said. Second Half Commitment On July 27, 2022, the ECB hiked rates to 0.00 percent from -0.50 Talk of hiking interest rates to zero is seemingly ridiculous, but that's what happened. The ECB is at 1.50 percent as of November 2. percent.

Banking 185

Banking Economics 185

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.07 in September.

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 110

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 110

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 4.21 YoY in December.

Retail 120

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 120

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. Mortgage originations, which include refinances, fell to $498 billion in the fourth quarter, representing a return to lower levels last seen in 2019. trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession. Balances now stand $2.75

Banking 98

Banking Accounting Economics 98

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Ellison, from 2019 to 2022, manipulated the price of FTT, a digital asset that FTX issued. Both agreed to settle the SEC’s and CFTC’s claims and to accept liability, with monetary penalties to be decided in the future, according to the regulators. The SEC said Ms. Ellison did so at the direction of Mr. Bankman-Fried, according to the SEC.

Commission 203

Commission Assets Economics 203

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

In fact, the average annual number of jobs gained from 2010-2019 was 2.2 In fact, monthly job creation averaged 163,000 in 2019, which was a year of solid economic growth. It indicates layoffs remain low, which is why initial claims for unemployment benefits match the low levels seen in 2022 and even 2018-2019.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. That’s only slightly below the high from last summer, and above anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.”

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143