The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

In the past four quarters, economic forecasters have, on average, predicted a 42% probability of a contraction in the U.S. economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. .” 40%) probability of happening. By Jeremy Majerovitz St.

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Banking Economy Economics 298

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

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Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 19, 2024

Four charts about the economy you might find surprising: 1. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Wages are cumulative too.

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The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

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Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.

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Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.) on average, well above the 7.1%

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2023

But when the calendar changed from October to November in 2019, so too did the entire streaming industry. The Guardian ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Neil Dutta , head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. Washington Post ) see also Politicians Want to Keep Money Out of E.S.G.

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Startup Economics Banking Accounting 279

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

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Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

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Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 8, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in November 2019. This depends on the Fed (next question) and if the economy slides into a recession. Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 and a few predictions: • Question #7 for 2023: How much will wages increase in 2023?

Economics 225

Economics Sales Retirement Economy 225

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4% after adjusting for inflation, matching the average annual pace between 2010 and 2019.

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Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? economic impact of the Eras tour at close to $5 billion. economy afloat this summer! Gilmore published an article in the Harvard Business Review titled, “Welcome to the Experience Economy”. cities over the past few months. In 1998, co-authors and economists B.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 3, 2025

Good Riddance, February The second half of February was rough, as worries over the economy, tariffs, and large cap tech weakness dominated the conversation. We continue to think the bull market is alive and well and the economy is on solid footing, but that doesnt mean we wont have scary headlines or worries. Heres the thing.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

September 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in September, with the overall economy achieving a 28th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. percent in December 2019). Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

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Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. Strong May gains historically suggest more gains to come.

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Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 11, 2023

It is important to remember that stocks lead the economy, both on the way up and the way down. To us, this is the market’s way of saying the economy will continue to see solid growth next year. Stocks tend to lead the economy, and several major indexes are near new highs, which is a good signal for the economy.

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Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

The economy continues to surprise to the upside, as we will discuss more below. With earnings hitting new highs and the economy continuing to expand, it’s no wonder stocks have hit 42 new all-time highs in 2024. From the end of 2019 through 2024 Q2, real GDP growth was revised up from 9.4% The reason for the rally? Guess What?

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Carson Wealth

JANUARY 8, 2024

A “Goldilocks” December jobs report highlights sustained momentum for the economy as it continues its path to normalization. Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. History says to expect it.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. The economy ran above trend last year, despite high interest rates.

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Bell Investment Advisors

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The economic backdrop to these losses, however, stands out. Comparing present day data with data from 2000 through 2019, we clearly see strength in the present. The broader economy surprises, too. A report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that gross domestic product grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.9%

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Trade Brains

OCTOBER 3, 2023

While we wait and see what happens, one thing we can be sure of is that our economy is going to receive a significant boost. India expects this World Cup to boost its economy by Rs. That’s more than three times the economic impact seen during the 2015 Australia-New Zealand edition and the 2019 UK World Cup, which were $347.2

Economy 59

Economy Sales Electronics Economics 59

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 7, 2024

Strong Job Numbers Are Good News for the Economy and Markets There’s been valid concern that employment conditions are deteriorating, ever so slowly. That’s higher than anything we saw between 2001 and 2019 (when it peaked at 80.4%). in 2019, 5.9% The unemployment rate has increased from a low of 3.4% in April 2023 to 4.3%

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Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 95

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

economy has accelerated over the past year, defying calls of recession amid the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes. We just received a tremendous amount of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). In sum: Not only is there no recession, but the economy does not even appear to be headed for a “landing” at this point.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Apricitas Economics ) see also America’s Biggest Landlords Can’t Find Houses to Buy Either : Higher rates and few properties for sale have slowed Wall Street’s home buying. Wall Street Journal ) • AI is a turbo-charger for the $1.4tn side hustle economy, apparently : The future contains multitudes.

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Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down.

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Carson Wealth

MAY 13, 2024

Economic data remains supportive, according to the Carson Leading Economic Indicator, which is pointing to above-trend growth. While some cracks may be forming, the economy remains on firm footing. Admittedly, it can be hard to get a full picture of the economy as the data rolls in week after week. and 28 other countries.

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 1, 2019

2019 Year-End Planning Letter. Fri, 11/01/2019 - 13:44. Each year’s gift tax annual exclusion expires at the end of that year; therefore clients who wish to use their 2019 exclusion amount should make annual exclusion gifts to all desired beneficiaries before December 31. Opportunity Zone Investments.

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Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

The economy added 206,000 jobs in June, ahead of expectations of 190,000. That is the best ‘worst day of the month’ since November 2019 and second best since February 2017! Fortunately, the doers drive the economy; the thinkers only report on it. million, which matches the 2019 average. Doers are optimists.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

This Bull Market Is Still Young As we’ve been saying for close to 18 months, we think we are in a new bull market and the economy will avoid a recession over the coming year. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. Not much has changed, and we still feel this way.

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Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

But we think now is more like the normalization cuts we saw in 1984, 1995, and 2019, all of which saw continued gains a year later. It turns out they are and the last time we saw this was in 2019. All this is very positive for the economy. And if economic growth remains resilient, bond yields should not be moving lower.

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Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

But now we have a healthy economy, well-contained inflation, a Federal Reserve set to cut rates, improving productivity, record earnings, and stocks at all-time highs. As we wrote in our 2024 Outlook, “Seeing Eye to Eye” ( download here ), productivity growth is a game-changer for the economy. at the end of 2022 to 2.6%

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Carson Wealth

JULY 29, 2024

Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.

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Investing Caffeine

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The buffet of issues includes the Federal Reserve’s fastest rate hike cycle in decades ( see chart below ), spiking inflation, a slowing economy, an unresolved war between Russia and Ukraine, declining home prices, and a volatile stock market to boot. Bets are changing daily, but after starting the year at a 0.0% But wait, there’s more!

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