Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…
The Big Picture
JANUARY 23, 2023
I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them.
2019 Economics Numbers 
Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022).
Economics 
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Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top
The Big Picture
JUNE 22, 2023
Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.
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The Great Resignation Is Long Over
The Big Picture
JULY 27, 2022
I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.
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Sunday links: too many theories
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 26, 2023
institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. econbrowser.com) The economic schedule for the coming week.
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At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut
The Big Picture
MARCH 13, 2024
Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that.
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Those Age 65+ Constitute 81% of the Working Age Population Increase In the last 3 Years
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
I used seasonally-adjusted (SA) numbers where available, otherwise non-adjusted numbers (NSA). Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6
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The Blockchain Promise is Always Around the Corner, IBM and Maersk Scrap Efforts
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
As well as IBM and Maersk, the project had support from a number of carriers, customs organisations, banks and transport providers to create an information ecosystem. blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ).
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Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2022
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 26, 2022
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). However, it seems unlikely that inventory will be back up to the 2017 - 2019 levels. As expected, inventory hit new record lows early in 2022, and is finishing the year up significantly year-over-year - but not close to the 2017 - 2019 levels.
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Comments on April Employment Report
Calculated Risk
MAY 3, 2024
The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31
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Comments on May Employment Report
Calculated Risk
JUNE 7, 2024
The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May.
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Comments on March Employment Report
Calculated Risk
APRIL 5, 2024
The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36
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Comments on July Employment Report
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 2, 2024
The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22
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Comments on September Employment Report
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 4, 2024
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.
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Market Commentary: Another October Low Forming?
Carson Wealth
OCTOBER 23, 2023
Economic indicators across consumption, income, industry and the labor market don’t point to a recession. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. in the third quarter.
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Comments on September Employment Report
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 6, 2023
The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 million from 4.22
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Comments on December Employment Report
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 5, 2024
The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 YoY in December.
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Comments on August Employment Report
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%
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Comments on October Employment Report
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 3, 2023
The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million from 4.07 million from 4.07
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Comments on November Employment Report
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 8, 2023
The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons decreased by 295,000 to 4.0
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NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt and Delinquency Rates Increased
Calculated Risk
MAY 14, 2024
The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.” percentage points lower than the fourth quarter of 2019.
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Comments on October Employment Report
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2024
The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October.
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Market Commentary: The Summer Rally Continues Amid Strong Job Gains
Carson Wealth
JUNE 10, 2024
We didn’t even see significant revisions to March and April payroll numbers, and the 3-month average now sits at 249,000. In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. The payroll number comes from the “establishment survey,” which is a survey of about 119,000 businesses and government agencies (about 629,000 worksites).
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Market Commentary: Slow Start For Stocks Despite Solid Job Gains
Carson Wealth
JANUARY 8, 2024
Goldilocks Job Numbers as Economy Powers Ahead The December payroll report was strong on the surface, with 216,000 jobs created last month and the unemployment rate firm at 3.7%. In fact, the average annual number of jobs gained from 2010-2019 was 2.2 Another 20% gain is possible, however, as it has happened before four times.
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Review: Ten Economic Questions for 2023
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 20, 2023
At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). The black line is for 2019. compared to the same week in 2019. My guess is multi-family starts will decline in 2023 as rents soften and as the record number of housing units under construction are completed. The red line is for 2023.
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Predicting the Next Recession
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 16, 2022
Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. Note: I will look at comparing to 2019 to remove the pandemic distortions.
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2019 Year-End Planning Letter
Brown Advisory
NOVEMBER 1, 2019
2019 Year-End Planning Letter. Fri, 11/01/2019 - 13:44. These conditions present a variety of challenges for investors; more germane to our discussion in this letter, they also present a number of planning opportunities that may require near-term action. Treasuries). Opportunity Zone Investments.
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Comments on June Employment Report
Calculated Risk
JULY 5, 2024
The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June. million from 4.42
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Comments on January Employment Report
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 2, 2024
The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " In January, the number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 Including revisions: The 3.06
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Market Commentary: Up and Down Week Leaves the S&P 500 Near Flat
Carson Wealth
AUGUST 12, 2024
The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. The current number remains consistent with the 2018-2019 average, despite a larger labor force now.
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Market Commentary: Best Calendar Month Over the Last 20 Years Holding True
Carson Wealth
JULY 8, 2024
That is the best ‘worst day of the month’ since November 2019 and second best since February 2017! These numbers can and will be revised, and so it helps to look at the 3-month average. That number has been trending down since earlier this year, but it’s at a healthy 177,000 right now, above the 166,000 average pace in 2019.
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Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank – Financials, Future Plans & More
Trade Brains
FEBRUARY 22, 2024
Yes Bank vs IDFC Bank : Banks are the economic engine. According to the FY23 report, the total number of employees was 27,517. The Indian banking industry has been on a roll, thanks to strong economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increased consumerism, and easier credit access. 2019-20 ₹ 6,793.96 ₹ 6,012.05
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Market Commentary: Fed, Earnings, Job Gains Support a Young Bull Market
Carson Wealth
MAY 6, 2024
Stocks gained for the second week in a row, as strong earnings, a dovish Fed, and a “Goldilocks” job number sparked buying. The April jobs number showed a healthy job market while easing concerns that the economy is overheating. The overall inflation numbers, including for core inflation, can hide what’s happening beneath the surface.
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Market Commentary: More Reasons We Think This Bull Market Has Plenty of Life Left
Carson Wealth
JULY 29, 2024
Q2 GDP Growth Confirms Economic Resilience The economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.8% It’s a very solid, but not spectacular, number, just in the top half of all quarters since 2010, but looking at it in the context of the rate environment shows just how resilient the economy has been. almost broke the economy in 2019.
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Market Commentary: Good News Is Good News
Carson Wealth
JANUARY 29, 2024
In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. and 2017-2019 pace of 2.8%. That’s well above the 2010-2019 average of 2.4%
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Market Drama
Zoe Financial
MAY 8, 2023
Economic Data: April’s growth came in at 253,000, above expectations. First quarter 2023 earnings are now tracking toward negative 4.5% (the market was expecting even worse numbers). The S&P 500 was up 1.9 for the week%, meaning it’s up 8% year-to-date. Nasdaq was up 2.3% for the week and is now up 18% year-to-date.
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Market Commentary: Seasonal Tailwinds Ahead, but First an Election
Carson Wealth
NOVEMBER 4, 2024
However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise because we knew Hurricanes Milton and Helene would weigh on the numbers. September payrolls were revised down by 31,000 to +223,000 jobs, and August was revised down by 81,000 to +78,000 (the first sub-100,000 monthly payroll number since December 2020). The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.)
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2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting
Brown Advisory
JULY 23, 2019
2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting ajackson Tue, 07/23/2019 - 09:50 The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is an opportunity for shareholders and analysts to pose questions to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. Buffett places a very high value on this float but won’t give a number. versus 9.7%
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2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting
Brown Advisory
JULY 23, 2019
2019 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting. Tue, 07/23/2019 - 09:50. companies, with nearly 400,000 employees and an equity market capitalization of over $500 billion as of June 30, 2019. Buffett places a very high value on this float but won’t give a number. after Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook.
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Market Commentary: Is “Sell in May” Still Relevant?
Carson Wealth
APRIL 29, 2024
While the GDP number for the first quarter disappointed, strength was evident beneath the surface. The weakest numbers were in areas that are volatile and tend to reverse, such as inventories and net exports. The core numbers were solid again and didn’t change our basic outlook for the rest of the year. in the first quarter.
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Comments on February Employment Report
Calculated Risk
MARCH 8, 2024
The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in February.
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Feasting on a Full Plate of Concerns
Investing Caffeine
DECEMBER 1, 2022
This reasonable drawdown in stock prices is not too shabby, considering the meteoric gains of 2019-2020-2021 (+90% cumulatively), as I have highlighted on numerous occasions (see my July Newsletter, Winning Teams Occasionally Lose ). Bets are changing daily, but after starting the year at a 0.0% For starters, the broadest measure of U.S.
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Secular Growth In The Pet Industry
Fortune Financial
SEPTEMBER 19, 2023
While these exciting new developments garner a lot of attention, there are a number of other secular growth stories that, for investors, are equally worthy of attention. per annum with growth every single year regardless of economic circumstances. They’re more likely to get a puffer vest at our Reddy shop.”
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Recession Watch
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 7, 2022
See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. 2) Significant policy error. (See
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