Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (92.2% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 137

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 137

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Jerome Powell and the FOMC should ask themselves three questions: 1.

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. The first is a group of charts covering two decades through 2019, titled “ Prevalence of Emotional Payload in Headlines.”

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. Alas, today’s inflation is 1) not like that of the 1970s; 2) the economy is nothing like the 1980s double-dip recession; and 3) Jerome Powell is no Paul Volcker. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”

Economy 298

Economy Banking Economics 298

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%. a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8%

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 119

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 119

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2022

fortune.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are trending higher, albeit slowly. youngmoney.co) Why we can never go back to 2019. (frontofficesports.com) How NBA shoe deals actually work. huddleup.substack.com) China How goes China's 'Belt and Road Initiative'? npr.org) What happens if Covid rips through China's population?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Media Assets Taxes 245

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (96.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 106

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 106

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is about at the same level as in 2019 (100.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.5% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (89.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 97

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 97

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (87.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (92.8% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 94

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 94

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. theatlantic.com) Economy Menzie Chinn, "Strong labor market, spending and income numbers all suggest no recession in place yet." (bloomberg.com) Data from the U.S.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (91.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 92

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 92

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 26, 2023

In late-2019, The Economist put out a 150 page report called The World in 2020 that offered some predictions for the coming year in geopolitics and the economy. The issue was full of thoughts and ideas from CEOs, economists, scientists, politicians and business leaders about what was coming in the year ahead. presidential election,

Economy 145

Economy Marketing Marketing 145

A Wealth of Common Sense

MAY 19, 2024

Four charts about the economy you might find surprising: 1. The Congressional Budget Office released new research comparing inflation on a basket of goods and services households at different income levels consume between now and 2019 along with changes in wages. Wages are cumulative too.

Economics 144

Economics Budgeting Distribution Economy 144

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.7% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 90

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 90

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 3, 2024

At the end of 2019, for example, many pundits were forecasting a recession simply because the boom had gone on for so long. Recessions are notoriously difficult to predict.

Economy 98

Economy 98

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (97.4% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 86

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 86

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Perhaps we should consider another issue that tends to get too little ink: Workers exiting sectors of the service industry permanently. Perhaps a few anecdotes 1 might illuminate this: We tend to cook during the week and go out to eat on weekends.

Retail 320

Retail Food Manufacturing Economy 320

The Big Picture

MARCH 9, 2023

In this space, Hedge funds lag finance, which in turn lags the broader economy. Women are under-represented in the finance industry in general, but it has been improving (albeit slowly).

Wealth Management 162

Wealth Management Management Engineering Investing 162

Brown Advisory

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

The Equity Beat: Can the Swift Economy Remain on Stage? No less an authority on the economy than the Federal Reserve stated, “May was the strongest month for hotel revenue in Philadelphia since the onset of the pandemic, in large part due to an influx of guests for the Taylor Swift concerts in the city.” economy afloat this summer!

Economy 98

Economy Clients Economics Investing 98

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 3, 2022

This is how the cardboard economy works. ( But this past week, one of those events arrived — a tide nearly as large as 2019’s — and residents barely noticed. . • Where Does All the Cardboard Come From? I Had to Know : I Had to Know. Entire forests and enormous factories running 24/7 can barely keep up with demand. It’s mostly bunk.

Engineering 264

Engineering Food Economy Management 264

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (89.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 75

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 75

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 23, 2023

The economy has strong momentum, with growth accelerating since the first half of the year. Let’s Call It Like It Is: The Economy Is Strong, and There’s No Recession on the Horizon A year ago, a Bloomberg Economics model projected a recession within the next 12 months with 100% probability. Through June 2023, the economy grew 2.4%

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 143

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

May job growth surprised to the upside with the economy adding a robust 272,000 jobs. How the consumer is tapped out, the economy is headed for a recession, only a few stocks are going up, and so on endlessly. In 2019, average monthly job growth was 166,000. Strong May gains historically suggest more gains to come.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 143