Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (96.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is about at the same level as in 2019 (100.3% compared to the same week in 2019.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.5% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (89.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (93.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (90.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (87.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (92.8% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (91.9% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (94.7% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. below the same week in 2019 (97.4% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

We discuss US fiscal policy, recession risks, and her New York Times bestseller “ The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the Peoples Economy.” She was also named to Barron’s 100 Most Influential Women in Finance.

Economics 182

Economics Budgeting Economy 182

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs? 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. from the same day in 2019 (89.1% Dashed purple is 2019 (STR is comparing to a strong year for hotels).

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

Here is QAD from 2019: In business, change is inevitable , and those that fail to adapt and innovate are often doomed to failure. The S&P acts as a snapshot that illuminates which companies and industries are the largest in the economy at any given time.

Economy 312

Economy Management Investing Investments 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. This is now happening , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2024

Bankruptcies fell especially sharply after the pandemic began in early 2020, despite some COVID-related disruptions to the economy. 2023 was the 3rd lowest year for bankruptcy filings, and 42% below the pre-pandemic level in 2019. Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 331

Economy 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Jerome Powell and the FOMC should ask themselves three questions: 1.

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. Since 2019, Households invested more, home values jumped, and savings levels have risen. The first is a group of charts covering two decades through 2019, titled “ Prevalence of Emotional Payload in Headlines.”

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. Alas, today’s inflation is 1) not like that of the 1970s; 2) the economy is nothing like the 1980s double-dip recession; and 3) Jerome Powell is no Paul Volcker. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

Economy 312

Economy Taxes Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2023

economy in the next quarter, according to the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Kidding aside, Tim Harford reminds us that “In 2008, the consensus from forecasters was that not a single economy would fall into recession in 2009.” ” Why? .”

Banking 298

Banking Economy Economics 298

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%. a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8%

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

Sales in 2022 were impacted significantly by supply chain disruptions, and sales were still down 19% from the 2019 level. This suggests vehicle sales might increase in 2023 even with higher rates and a soft economy. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new all-time high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019. million, down 8.1%

Sales 237

Sales Economy 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2022

fortune.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are trending higher, albeit slowly. youngmoney.co) Why we can never go back to 2019. (frontofficesports.com) How NBA shoe deals actually work. huddleup.substack.com) China How goes China's 'Belt and Road Initiative'? npr.org) What happens if Covid rips through China's population?

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Media Assets Taxes 245

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2022

If you were expecting August rail traffic to provide a definitive statement regarding the state of the economy, well, get used to disappointment. from 2019. From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Economy 237

Economy 237

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

Good news can be bad news in the short run, but a solid economy usually becomes good news again once we get past the initial market reaction. If the underlying economy is sound, pullbacks like this can actually be a positive for the longer-term health of the market. The economy created over 2 million jobs in 2024, down from 2.4

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. The 2017-2019 pace was 3.1%.) on average, well above the 7.1%

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 95

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288