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The Great Resignation Is Long Over

The Big Picture

Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.

Medicine 331
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At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut

The Big Picture

Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that.

Numbers 288
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 145
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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. That was June; we now have a lot more data.

Economics 336
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Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 144
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 140
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 140