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Changes in Global Wealth 2021

The Big Picture

The data always has some interesting findings about how the very wealthy are investing, consuming, and otherwise spending their time and money. The actual data had some very interesting highlights, including some ginormous numbers: -Global Wealth: $463.6 Wealth Distribution in America (April 11, 2019). trillion (end of 2021).

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Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…

The Big Picture

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them.

Numbers 325
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US Equities: 9% Forever?

The Big Picture

Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. Calculating returns back to May 1974 gives us numbers that look like this: S&P 500 Index annualized generated gains of 8.44%; if you reinvested the dividends, the annualized gains were 11.43%.2 A lot of it has not aged well.

Numbers 290
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Indexing is Well Understood

The Big Picture

Sinclair had a clear bead on the financial industry, especially the high-cost, active-investing side of it, even though he was writing about the meatpacking industry. Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. Alas, the war against misinformation is never-ending series of skirmishes.

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Predicting the Next Recession

Calculated Risk

One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. (See Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 363
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 28-29)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the shift in financial advice from pure investment management to comprehensive financial planning continues, with more individuals becoming CFP professionals than CFAs in the past few years as consumers increasing the diversity (..)

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Recession Watch

Calculated Risk

One of my favorite models for business cycle forecasting uses new home sales (also housing starts and residential investment). See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. (See Residential investment has also peaked.

Sales 361