Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2024

The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking at about 105% of pre-pandemic levels. This data is as of April 21st. Click on graph for larger image.

Numbers 147

Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 343

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 343

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 360

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 360

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

Here is a mid-year look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). This data is as of June 25th.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 23, 2023

below September 2019 levels • While overall delinquencies have risen, the number of loans in active foreclosure fell to 214K in September, its lowest point since March 2022 and some 25% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels • Foreclosure starts also declined, falling by -20.4% in September compared to August and increased 4.3%

Numbers 316

Numbers Sales 316

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2025

compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. For the 63rd consecutive week, the number of homes for sale has increased compared to the same time last year. This week brought the highest number of new listings to the market since October suggesting that sellers are ready to get into the market this year. above year-ago levels.

Numbers 147

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

Here is a late September look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 321

Transportation Numbers Sales 321

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2024

month over month jump, driven in part by seasonal pressures • The number of loans in active foreclosure rose 7K to 219K, but remained 23% below (-64K) pre-pandemic levels • 6.6K of serious delinquencies, January’s 34K foreclosure starts – the most since April 2022 – marked a +43.3%

Numbers 316

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 316

Calculated Risk

MARCH 30, 2023

Inventories of for-sale homes rose, but at a slightly slower pace than the previous week for a second time as the smaller number of hopeful homebuyers still outnumber new sellers on the market. Growth in the number of homes for sale is primarily being driven by longer time on market and needs to be put into context.

Numbers 334

Numbers Sales Marketing Marketing 334

Calculated Risk

JUNE 23, 2023

for the month (+2.2%), they remain near April’s 6-month low and 41% below the same period in 2019, the last comparable May before the pandemic • Foreclosure actions were started on 5.1% The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in May to 0.43%, from 0.44% the previous month.

Numbers 363

Numbers Sales 363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investments 325

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels. However, the number of homes on the market is still down 37.9% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • Taking a broader look, the number of new homes for sale remains historically small, even with recent improvements. above year ago levels.

Sales 290

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2024

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78

Sales 162

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2024

YoY, and down 40% compared to January 2019. YoY, and that would still put inventory down about 38% compared to February 2019. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. above year ago levels.

Sales 304

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 304

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

APRIL 11, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 38% compared to March 2017 to 2019 levels. However, the number of homes on the market is still down 37.9% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. above year ago levels.

Sales 259

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 259

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 28, 2022

week over week to $151, which is 17% higher than in 2019 and 10% greater than a year ago. week over week to $102, but remained ahead of 2019 by 12% and was up 17% from a year ago. Inflation-adjusted, or real, ADR was ahead of 2019 levels by 1%, whereas real RevPAR was below that benchmark by 3%. Occupancy is 2.8

Numbers 130

Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average.

Transportation 243

Transportation Numbers Sales 243

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 million, changed little in April. million from 4.31

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 million, changed little in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2023

In March 2023, investors accounted for 27% of all single-family home purchases; by June, that number was almost unchanged at 26%. Of course, the total number home bought by investors has declined somewhat. Figure 2 illustrates the number of U.S. home purchases made by both investors and non-investors through March 2023.

Numbers 241

Numbers Accounting Marketing Marketing 241

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 million, changed little in March. million from 4.36

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 million in July. million from 4.22 million in June.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2024

YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Since February, the number of homes newly listed for sale has surpassed year ago pace by double-digit with the exception of a few weeks around this year’s spring holidays. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. above year-ago levels. from one year ago.

Sales 312

Sales Planning Numbers Marketing 312

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246