Stop Worrying About All Those Tech Layoffs…
The Big Picture
JANUARY 23, 2023
I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them.
The Great Resignation Is Long Over
The Big Picture
JULY 27, 2022
Consider these columns going back to 2013 pointing out the foolishness of tax-payer subsidized corporate welfare queens (2013), and why median wages were rising ( 2016 , 2017 , 2018 , 2018 , 2019 ). By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Then came the pandemic, and a huge federal worker subsidy.
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Wealth Inequality Starts at the Top
The Big Picture
JUNE 22, 2023
I suspect most people don’t have any idea about these numbers, and imagine the various starts to be closer together in dollar amounts than they actually are. The top 0.01% of US households had at least $111 million in net worth in 2012, compared to $4 million for the 1 %.
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Those Age 65+ Constitute 81% of the Working Age Population Increase In the last 3 Years
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
I used seasonally-adjusted (SA) numbers where available, otherwise non-adjusted numbers (NSA). Labor Force Participation Rates 2019-2022. Participation Rates 2019 through 2022, October all years, BLS data, chart by Mish. Change in Participation Rate October 2022 Minus October 2019 16-19: +1.3 20-24: -1.6
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At the Money: How To Know When The Fed Will Cut
The Big Picture
MARCH 13, 2024
Well, in 2019, when your average money market fund was yielding zero and your average bond fund was yielding 2%, we used to scream, TINA — there is no alternative. And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that.
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Americonned
The Big Picture
JUNE 16, 2023
To put it in numbers: Their share has gone from about 23% to about 32%. Previously : America’s Corporate Welfare Queens (November 13, 2013) Minimum Wage Increases Do Not Destroy Jobs (January 24, 2019) Generational Reset of Minimum Wage (November 30, 2021) Wages in America The post Americonned appeared first on The Big Picture.
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US Equities: 9% Forever?
The Big Picture
MAY 6, 2024
Much of it reflects the bad ideas and numbers, and worse advice, that float around Wall Street. Calculating returns back to May 1974 gives us numbers that look like this: S&P 500 Index annualized generated gains of 8.44%; if you reinvested the dividends, the annualized gains were 11.43%.2 A lot of it has not aged well.
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TSA: Airline Travel Above 2019 Levels
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. The 7-day average is above the level for the same week in 2019 (104% of 2019). red line) The 7-day average has been above 2019 Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking above pre-pandemic levels. (red
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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). price growth that characterized the pre-pandemic business cycle of 2007–2019. Perhaps this explains in part why corporate profits have held up as well as they have despite higher interest rates and increased wages.
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Sunday links: too many theories
Abnormal Returns
FEBRUARY 26, 2023
institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. (businessinsider.com) Airbnb ($ABNB) has a rating inflation problem.
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Indexing is Well Understood
The Big Picture
JUNE 21, 2023
Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. Previously : Winner Takes All Applies to Stocks, Too (August 1, 2019) Wasn’t Passive Supposed to Blow Up During the Next Crash?
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10 Sunday Reads
The Big Picture
MAY 28, 2023
In 2019 you would have been considered a quack if you suggested that the best way to get rid of a virus is to spread the virus. A painstakingly documented new book by Jonathan Howard, a neurologist at New York University and a veteran debunker of the pseudoscience contaminating our efforts to fight the pandemic. regulators said.
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TSA: Airline Travel about 12% Above 2019 Levels to New Record High
Calculated Risk
MAY 26, 2024
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking at about 112% of pre-pandemic levels. This data is as of May 24th. Click on graph for larger image.
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How Amazon Become Ordinary
The Big Picture
AUGUST 1, 2022
I searched for the exact product number “CR2450 Lithium” and bought the first result, a Duracell. Amazon.Bomb, May 31, 1999 (June 3, 2019). HQ2: Understanding What Happened & Why (February 19, 2019). That was where signs of a shift began to show. But it wasn’t the 2450, it was a paid placement. January 12, 2022).
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Using A Testamentary Charitable Remainder Unitrust (T-CRUT) To Give Twice To Both Loved Ones And Charitable Organizations
Nerd's Eye View
JANUARY 31, 2024
In late 2019, Congress passed the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, introducing several significant changes to retirement planning. Of the many provisions in the bill, the so-called "Death of the Stretch" arguably received the lion's share of consternation from the financial advisor community.
The Blockchain Promise is Always Around the Corner, IBM and Maersk Scrap Efforts
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 30, 2022
As well as IBM and Maersk, the project had support from a number of carriers, customs organisations, banks and transport providers to create an information ecosystem. blockchain) helps to address agency and coordination problems by offering flexibility when sharing information (Perera and Czachorowski 2019 ).
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (October 28-29)
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 27, 2023
Also in industry news this week: A survey indicates that while financial advisors remain the most trusted source of financial advice, they might increasingly encounter client questions and ideas that originated from social media Following the transition of advisors and clients from TD Ameritrade and amid competition from competing RIA custodians, Charles (..)
Market Commentary: Dow Hits 40,000 As Inflation Numbers Improve
Carson Wealth
MAY 20, 2024
April inflation data confirmed there is no need to panic about the first-quarter numbers. That’s the slowest pace since August 2021 and not far above the 2018-2019 average of 3.6%. but well above the 2018-2019 average of 3.2%. That’s similar to the pace of 2019. Forward-looking data suggest continued disinflation ahead.
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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (April 22-23)
Nerd's Eye View
APRIL 21, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that in a settlement with the SEC, robo-advisor platform Betterment agreed to pay a $9 million penalty for allegedly misstating the frequency that its automated tax-loss harvesting system was scanning some client accounts between (..)
Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 11, 2023
There are many sources of “Shrinkage” of inventory, and while there is some debate as to the largest sources, they look something like this: Employee theft : It’s the number one source of shrinkage. (My billion in 2019, according to the state agency that tracks sales tax. My experience: it is often uinderreported by companies).
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America’s Piggie Banks Are Full
A Wealth of Common Sense
JUNE 2, 2024
Households have added roughly $12 trillion in home equity since the end of 2019: To put this number in context, there was only ~$6 trillion in home equity following the bursting of the housing bubble following the Great Financial Crisis. The pandemic housing boom means Americans have more home equity than ever.
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2023 Highlights – The Top 22 Nerd’s Eye View Blog Posts You Might Have Missed
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 18, 2023
As 2023 comes to a close, I am once again so thankful to all of you, the ever-growing number of readers who continue to regularly visit this Nerd's Eye View Blog (and share the content with your friends and colleagues, which we greatly appreciate!). We recognize (and appreciate!)
Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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50th Anniversary Of The CFP Marks: The Journey, Current State Of CFP Board, And Growing The Financial Planning Profession
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
As a result, in 1973, a group of 35 planners became the inaugural recipients of the CFP marks.
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 8, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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TSA: Airline Travel about 5% Above 2019 Levels
Calculated Risk
APRIL 22, 2024
The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. The red line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Air travel - as a percent of 2019 - is tracking at about 105% of pre-pandemic levels. This data is as of April 21st. Click on graph for larger image.
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 5, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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Five High Frequency Indicators for the Economy
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 1, 2022
. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). The dashed line is the percent of 2019 for the seven-day average. Blue is for 2020.
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ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
Calculated Risk
FEBRUARY 23, 2024
month over month jump, driven in part by seasonal pressures • The number of loans in active foreclosure rose 7K to 219K, but remained 23% below (-64K) pre-pandemic levels • 6.6K of serious delinquencies, January’s 34K foreclosure starts – the most since April 2022 – marked a +43.3%
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Update on Four High Frequency Indicators
Calculated Risk
JUNE 26, 2023
Here is a mid-year look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). This data is as of June 25th.
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Help Wanted!
The Big Picture
APRIL 10, 2023
Immigrants used to fill the gap but we seem to have reduced the total number of legal immigrants over the past decade (some recent data suggests that’s improving). Meaning, don’t ignore the anecdotes but see if they point to a broader underlying data set. The post Help Wanted! appeared first on The Big Picture.
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Black Knight: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increased in September
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 23, 2023
below September 2019 levels • While overall delinquencies have risen, the number of loans in active foreclosure fell to 214K in September, its lowest point since March 2022 and some 25% below 2019 pre-pandemic levels • Foreclosure starts also declined, falling by -20.4% in September compared to August and increased 4.3%
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2022 Highlights — The Top 22 Nerd’s Eye View Blog Posts You Might Have Missed
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 26, 2022
As 2022 comes to a close, I am once again so thankful to all of you, the ever-growing number of readers who continue to regularly visit this Nerd’s Eye View Blog (and share the content with your friends and colleagues, which we greatly appreciate!).
Update on Four High Frequency Indicators
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2023
Here is a late September look at four indicators: -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Blue is for 2020.
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TD Ameritrade To Schwab Conversion Tips For Financial Advisors
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 28, 2023
The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab.
SECURE Act 2.0: Later RMDs, 529-to-Roth Rollovers, And Other Tax Planning Opportunities
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 28, 2022
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. In addition, SECURE 2.0 backdoor Roth conversions).
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SECURE Act 2.0: Later RMDs, 529-to-Roth-Rollovers, And Other Tax Planning Opportunities
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 28, 2022
The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. In addition, SECURE 2.0 backdoor Roth conversions).
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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing Home Months-of-Supply above December 2019
Calculated Risk
JANUARY 20, 2024
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Single Family Starts Up Year-over-year in December; Near Record Number of Multi-Family Housing Units Under Construction • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.78
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 57% YoY; New Listings Down 20% YoY
Calculated Risk
MARCH 30, 2023
Inventories of for-sale homes rose, but at a slightly slower pace than the previous week for a second time as the smaller number of hopeful homebuyers still outnumber new sellers on the market. Growth in the number of homes for sale is primarily being driven by longer time on market and needs to be put into context.
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Black Knight: "Past-Due Mortgages Approach Recent Record Lows" in May
Calculated Risk
JUNE 23, 2023
for the month (+2.2%), they remain near April’s 6-month low and 41% below the same period in 2019, the last comparable May before the pandemic • Foreclosure actions were started on 5.1% The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in May to 0.43%, from 0.44% the previous month.
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My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside
The Big Picture
JULY 20, 2023
Since inception (March 2019), they are up 27.8% The performance numbers reveal this is a terrible trade-off for the average retail investor. Those funds have a starting upside cap of 14.28% versus TJUL’s 16.62%; the chart above shows how they have done year to date: Up 11.5% respectively this year, versus 19.9% Chart after the jump ).
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 17.8% YoY; New Listings up 11.9% YoY
Calculated Risk
MARCH 3, 2024
YoY, and down 40% compared to January 2019. YoY, and that would still put inventory down about 38% compared to February 2019. Nevertheless, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared to what was typical in 2017 to 2019. • On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. above year ago levels.
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