The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2025

The correlation between January 2013 and pre-Covid peak of March 2020 is 0.994. As mentioned above, for seven years – from January 2013 to March 2020 – CA and TX QSR employment moved almost identically, the correlation between them 0.994. During that seven year period, however, TX had a flat $7.25/hr

Food 306

Food Economics 306

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

232

232

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 7.5% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 15, 2024

It also covers many types of investments, including annuities, fixed-indexed annuities, CDs and other banking products, digital assets, commodities, and real estate, whereas previous rules like Reg BI and PTE 2020-02 applied only to securities like stocks, bonds, and funds.

Retirement 246

Retirement Commission Banking Financial Advising 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2024

The sharp increase in 2020 in the 90-day bucket was due to loans in forbearance (included as delinquent, but not reported to the credit bureaus). percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2024 compared to one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

277

277

The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2025

The correlation between January 2013 and pre-Covid peak of March 2020 is 0.994. As mentioned above, for seven years – from January 2013 to March 2020 – CA and TX QSR employment moved almost identically, the correlation between them 0.994. During that seven year period, however, TX had a flat $7.25/hr

Food 245

Food Economics 245

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

economy will likely perform in 2025, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. in February 2020. These are just questions; I'll follow up with some thoughts on each of these questions. The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. by 2033 due to demographics.

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

MARCH 12, 2025

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in February, down from 3.9% YoY in January. Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% YoY in January.

Food 251

Food 251

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings decreased in December to 7.60 million from 8.12 million in November.

Numbers 269

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 269

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization stepped up to 77.8 percent , a rate that is 1.8 percentage points below its long-run (19722024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization.

Manufacturing 179

Manufacturing 179

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

months in August 2020. The months of supply increased in January to 9.0 months from 8.0 months in December. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 221

Sales 221

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was unchanged at 7.5% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Note: In 2020, prices increased late into the year and peaked in October, but prices peaked in June for all the other years. Change in Median House Price from January to June 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 January to June 13.7% The NAR reported the median price was $396,900 in January 2025, down 7.0% from $426,900 in June 2024.

Sales 162

Sales 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that increased to 8.0% in the previous month. and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%).

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

months in August 2020. The months of supply decreased in November to 8.9 months from 9.2 months in October. The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

Sales 264

Sales 264

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

from 428 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down only 0.3% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year. Active inventory increased for the 3rd consecutive week, increasing 0.8% year-over-year.

360

360

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

from 433 thousand, however compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is down 1.9% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). Two years ago (in 2020) inventory was declining all year, so the two-year comparison will get easier all year. More than double! year-over-year.

362

362

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

from 424 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 2.1% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ? Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year.

363

363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

from 385 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 10.6% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ? Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5%

363

363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

from 339 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 14.3% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅ 4. Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. from 468 thousand.

361

361

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

from 375 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 12.9% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ? Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Altos reports inventory is down 0.8% week-over-week and down 2.3%

360

360

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

million SAAR in the January 2017-2020 period. However, sales in January, at 4.08 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were down from December and still historically low. Sales averaged almost 5.5 So, sales were still about 25% below pre-pandemic levels. Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.

Sales 162

Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 363

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

from 326 thousand, and compared to the same week in 2020 inventory is up 15.0% Inventory up compared to 2020 (happened on October 7, 2022, for Altos) ✅ 4. Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. from 454 thousand.

346

346

Calculated Risk

JUNE 10, 2024

from the February bottom, and at the highest level since August 2020. Inventory should be above 2020 levels for the same week in the next couple of months. Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 23.8% Click on graph for larger image. Inventory was up 37.8%

344

344

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2023, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red).

Sales 357

Sales 357

Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2025

Housing equity growth slowed in 2024 versus 2020-2023 due to moderating price appreciation, but homeowners maintain substantial equity gains from prior years, preserving their strong financial position, said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. million homes or 2% of all mortgaged properties. of all mortgage properties.

Numbers 191

Numbers Government Accounting Marketing 191

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2025

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization stepped up to 78.2 percent , a rate that is 1.4 percentage points below its long-run (19722024) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic). Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and BEA's estimate for May (red).

Sales 360

Sales Marketing Marketing 360

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

million borrowers since March 2020. While forbearances are still low compared to the height of the pandemic, the monthly increase in forbearances is the largest since May 2020 and likely driven by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.” According to MBA’s estimate, 235,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2023

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Month June June Oct June June December -7.0% -3.8% -0.7% -2.2% -11.3% N/A In 2020, prices increased late into the year and only decline slightly seasonally (the start of the pandemic buying boom), and in 2021, median prices only declined about 3% from peak to bottom. January -8.9% -6.7% -1.2% -3.4%

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2022

This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and above the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). Capacity utilization moved up 0.2 percentage point in September to 80.3 percent , a rate that is 0.7 percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Manufacturing 362

Manufacturing 362

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. Jobs openings increased in January to 7.74 million from 7.51 million in December.

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 2, 2023

Inventory was up compared to the same week in 2020 as of October 7, 2022, however, inventory will start well below 2020 levels in early 2023. Inventory was at a record low in early 2022 and was up compared to the same week in 2021 as of May 20, 2022. Currently inventory is up 67.3% year-over-year, and down 35.7% compared to 2019.

351

351

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 29, 2024

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. The Red dots are the decennial Census homeownership rates for April 1st, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored. The homeownership rate of 65.6 in Q3, from 65.6%

Numbers 162

Numbers Media Sales 162