The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

At the end of March 2020, I suggested that the hand-wringing surrounding the pandemic’s impact on equities was excessive; I reminded readers that externalities tend to make markets briefly wobble, then resume their prior trends. That was the case with my warnings about housing, subprime mortgages, and derivatives in the mid-2000s.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. – Covid Pandemic Crash, March 2020 : Fast and furious, it took a mere 22 trading days from February 19 to March 20 to see a fall of 33.9% The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5%

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

The Reformed Broker

AUGUST 26, 2022

This week, Michael Batnick, Devon Drew, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Jackson Hole, Adam Neumann’s new venture, crypto regulation, the best performing stocks since March 2020, using AI in asset management, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Assets 284

Assets Management Marketing Marketing 284

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2023

No two inflationary cycles are ever exactly alike, but the 2020-2023 version seems to be especially unusual. We had very low interest rates for more than a decade – 2010 to 2020 – and inflation remained subdued. How does the present inflationary cycle compare to previous eras of price instability in the United States?

Financial Services 306

Financial Services Banking Sales Marketing 306

The Big Picture

APRIL 12, 2023

over <arch — this was the first decline since September 2020. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 5.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. April 2023 ) As much as I want to jump up and down about 0.1% seasonally adjusted (after a 0.4% prior month), the big number is not so big: 5.0% Gasoline plummeted 17.4%

Food 351

Food Numbers 351

The Reformed Broker

JANUARY 28, 2023

It’s also the story of some very interesting characters who were involved, including the hedge fund manager Joe Edelman, who is the best performing hedge fund manager from 1999 to 2020. You’ve never heard of him, and. The post The Stock That Went From 50 Cents to $260 appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

Management 258

Management Marketing Marketing 258

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. Consider what you would have had to do over the past 2 decades to be a successful timer.

Marketing 304

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

Nerd's Eye View

MAY 22, 2023

But when the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in 2020, many firms shut their offices and went fully remote, which forced them to either rapidly reconfigure their internship programs or – as was more commonly the case – to suspend their internships or end them entirely.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Planning Financial Planner Certification 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Cars are for Driving, Sneakers are for Wearing (November 11, 2020). The Hidden World of Failure (October 23, 2020). September 18, 2020). _. Previously : Bought or Sold? April 28, 2022). Debate: Does Private Equity Warrant a Spot in Retirement Accounts?

Accounting 299

Accounting Commission Investing Investments 299

The Big Picture

MARCH 29, 2023

At my shop, WFH has allowed us to do things versus the Bigs in ways we probably couldn’t pre-2020. December 9, 2022) Back in the Saddle (May 4, 2021) Sorry, We’re Closed (March 13, 2020) Random Lockdown Observations (May 8, 2020) Sources : Is Working From Home Really Working?

Compliance 336

Compliance Banking Numbers Assets 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 17, 2023

December 9, 2022) Sorry, We’re Closed (March 13, 2020) _ 1. It just might be… Previously : Of Course WFH is “Really Working” (March 29, 2023) WFH vs RTO (February 16, 2023) Why Aren’t There Enough Workers? ” I really love that line… The post Is 50% the New (Metro) RTO?

Numbers 321

Numbers Clients 321

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

In 2020, we conducted a second survey to further explore the changing trends in financial planning brought about by improvements in advisor technology, shifts to the advisor business model, and changes in the regulatory environment. A lot has changed since 2020, though.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Certified Financial Planner Financial Planning CFP 245

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. She has been CEO February 2020. Stay invested. Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2024

At least one person1 has noticed the risks to young consumers of social media: Since August 2020, @TikTokInvestors has been curating the most outrageous money-losing and dangerous videos culled from the “financial experts” at TikTok. Nestled in between lip-sync dancers and fashion influencers, financial fraud lurks on TikTok.

Media 336

Media Taxes Math Investing 336

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

That was evident in 2021 (perhaps even late 2020). Jerome Powell should know better… 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates, 2020-Present. ZIRP and QE made the wealthy wealthier. As I have said before, once the emergency ends , so too should rates at emergency levels. This is needlessly damaging at best, and ineffective at worst.

Economy 312

Economy Banking Assets Management 312

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

aka The Hidden World of Failure ) (October 23, 2020) Stock Ownership : Distribution of Household Wealth in the U.S. (June 21, 2021) What If Everything is Survivorship Bias?

Distribution 325

Distribution Retirement Retirement Planning Taxes 325

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 4, 2024

bonddad.blogspot.com) Job openings are at their lowest level since December 2020. (news.harvard.edu) People on semaglitude fared better with Covid. jacc.org) Economy The July JOLTS report was not great. axios.com) The jobs market is vulnerable. sherwood.news) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Personal finance links: an essential skill.

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Economy 263

The Big Picture

MARCH 2, 2023

Fascinating dive into rent increases on a county by county basis via USAFacts: Rents rose in 58% of all counties nationwide between 2020 and 2023. Data shows that rents rose and dipped between neighboring zip codes. Housing prices jumped during the COVID-19 pandemic as remote work caused many Americans to reconsider their living situations.

Marketing 316

Marketing Marketing 316

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 11, 2022

As I observed yesterday: We’ve been in a secular bull market since Summer 2020; sell-off this year = cyclical bear within the broader secular bull than a full-on secular bear market. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). 25% (actually, 6 out of 20) is not enough to rely upon as a trading rule, but it is enough to capture my attention.

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Economy Investing 278

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 13, 2024

econbrowser.com) The Misery Index is down from its peak in 2020. (ft.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are clearly headed higher. bonddad.blogspot.com) Food is no longer a big part of inflation. econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Longform links: the chip war.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Food Media Economy 265

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a a pronounced acceleration over the 1.8%

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 3, 2022

She is on all of the “Most Powerful Women in Finance lists” including American Banker, Crains Rising Stars in Banking & Finance 2020. Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Kristen Bitterly Michell, Head of North America Investments for Citi Global Wealth. Lynn Martin’s Favorite Books.

Wealth Management 311

Wealth Management Banking Accounting Management 311

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

NDR Recession Probability Model: 1% chance of a recession currently NDR via Ryan Detrick Side note : The yield curve has been inverted for what feels like forever; note the 10 Year minus the 3-month (created by Duke Fuqua professor Harvey Campbell ) inverted in 2019, briefly in 2020, then went deep once the FOPMC began raising rates in 2022: Despite (..)

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Hardly ever, but there are 3 specific eras: Following the long, slow post-GFC recovery, just before the pandemic, January 2020 U3 was at 3.5%; Prior to that you have to go back more than a century to October 1968 to May 1969 when the Unemployment rate was at 3.4%; before that, it was soon after WWII, in 1952-53, when Unemployment was under 3%(!)

Economy 331

Economy Insurance Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Sorry, but “fake it till you make it” seems like a poor plan for thinking about the future… Previously : Time to Stop Believing Deficit B t (September 3, 2021) Stimulus, More Stimulus and Taxes (January 25, 2021) Cost of Financing US Deficits Falls (December 18, 2020) Can We Please Have an Honest Debate About Tax Policy?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investing Investments 347

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). that viewpoint was affirmed by the subsequent move in 2020 and 2021. We won’t know for sure until after the fact but it certainly hurt helps us to understand this context better. Previously : End of the Secular Bull? Bull Markets & P/E Multiple Expansion (June 22, 2018).

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI ® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percentage points lower than the 50.2

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 23, 2023

In the research data, this is reflected in a big uptick in advisors doing the most comprehensive plans: 54% of respondents offered 'Extensive' plans (with at least 13 planning components) in 2022, up from 35% in the 2020 edition of the study and 39% in 2018.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Planning Clients Financial Planner 246

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 15, 2023

While the ERC is indeed legitimate, determining eligibility is complex largely due to its phased implementation across 4 separate 'phases' spanning most of 2020 and all of 2021. Each phase has slightly different rules about who can claim the ERC and how the credit is calculated.

Clients 246

Clients Taxes Government Startup 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

BAML’s Chief Equity Technician Stephen Suttmeier likens the 2020 crash to the modern version of the 1987 crash: A substantial crash that took place 7 years into the start of a new bull. Secular Bull Market : US stocks are in the 5-6th inning of a bull market. Historical comparisons imply this market may have another 3-7 years to go.

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. Second, what looks like giant layoffs are in fact a tiny percentage of just the recent hiring (to say nothing of the total workforce) of these same firms. Amazon , now has 1.5 Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years.

Economics 325

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 325

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 30, 2022

The shipping industry is not only competitive, but it can also be regarded as technology- and information-intensive (Filom and Van Hassel 2020). 3) indicate that there is a requirement for a large amount of documentation, and the processes are rather rigid and complex (Di Vaio and Varriale 2020). The research results (Fig.

License 219

License Transportation Distribution Banking 219

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. The Fed is wrong about inflation, in magnitude and/or its direction. The Fed is right about inflation but misunderstands the underlying causes.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. (stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% unemployment rate. calculatedriskblog.com) There is some weakness is leading employment sectors. ritholtz.com) Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but no recession.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 13, 2020. Dangerous for economy. Poses a frightening systemic risk. Bubble waiting to burst. Leads to Monopolies. Concentrated portfolio risk. Sources here: [link]. Can someone explain to me how all of this dislocation and volatility is somehow being caused by low-cost passive indexing?

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investing 334

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2023

Previously : Cancelling Michael Lewis (October 5, 2023) Revisiting Liar’s Poker, 30 Years Later (April 22, 2022) MiB: Michael Lewis on Pandemic Planning (May 8, 2021) MiB: Michael Lewis on Coaches and Risk (May 25, 2020) MIB: Michael Lewis, Podcaster (April 6, 2019) MIB: Michael Lewis on a Writer’s Life (December 13, 2016) Michael Lewis’ Portrait (..)

Education 333

Education Management Planning Marketing 333