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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. 2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022.

Banking 336
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Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment “Strategy” (Still in Quantitative Easing Mode, Just Less So)

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 Inquiring minds might want to know why the Federal Reserve did not achieve its balance sheet targets by selling longer maturity/duration assets it had previously purchased.

Assets 165
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Four Quadrant Portfolio Check Up

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Let's dig in some more on Permanent Portfolio quadrant style. AQR Multi-Asset (AQRIX) used to be called Risk Parity and it also does some quadranty stuff. It had a big drawdown in the 2020 Pandemic Crash which, ok, something like that sure but it had a surprisingly big drawdown in 2022 as you can see at 13%.

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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. But that is not the same as becoming one of the most dominant asset managers in the world. Concentrated portfolio risk.

Taxes 334
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The “Art” of Market Timing

The Big Picture

Low Stakes : The most successful market timers are often those people who do not have actual assets at risk. Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. It’s utterly laughable.

Marketing 304
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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition

The Big Picture

From the perspective of an asset management and financial planning firm, the challenge is getting people to ignore the day-to-day noise in favor of thinking about where prices will be a decade hence. Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc.

Economics 363
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak. The GFC and the pandemic were global phenomena; the 2022 market was the worst since 1981 for a 60/40 portfolio.

Marketing 336