The Big Picture

JANUARY 20, 2025

Whether it was shoddy data analysis or a deliberate attempt to misinform, I found it offensive and brought the receipts as to the fundamental errors in the economic analysis. The correlation between January 2013 and pre-Covid peak of March 2020 is 0.994. During that seven year period, however, TX had a flat $7.25/hr

Food 245

Food Economics 245

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

This week, I speak with Stephanie Kelton , Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University and Senior Fellow at the Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis. Senate Budget Committee, and was senior economic adviser for Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns.

Economics 201

Economics Budgeting Economy 201

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I A brief excerpt: Pandemic economic outcomes were frequently largely unexpected. More generally, in 2020, we saw a surge in spending on goods as many services were shut down.

Economics 246

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 YoY in January.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My I followed up with a brief post on each question. The unemployment rates was at 3.7%

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. The FOMC is expecting growth of 1.2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

Today we celebrate the recovery of all the jobs lost in 2020, and the unemployment rate matching the lowest level since 1969. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs since February 2020. in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). million jobs, and are now down 1.21

Numbers 364

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 364

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 87% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. This measure is below the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). million in October.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 932 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 89% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Leisure and hospitality gained 67 thousand jobs in December.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 495 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 94% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Leisure and hospitality gained 128 thousand jobs in January.

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

million borrowers since March 2020. While forbearances are still low compared to the height of the pandemic, the monthly increase in forbearances is the largest since May 2020 and likely driven by the effects of Hurricanes Helene and Milton.” Notwithstanding the storms, some borrowers may be experiencing other economic distress.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 402 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 95% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Leisure and hospitality gained 31 thousand jobs in March.

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 17, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8.

Economics 127

Economics Economy 127

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 88% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 369 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 410 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 95% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. Leisure and hospitality gained 105 thousand jobs in February.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47 YoY in April.

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 184 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). in September.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42 YoY in May. million from 4.47

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31 YoY in March.

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9%

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 290 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 96% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). YoY in August.

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 97% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). million from 4.07

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. During the same period of time, the S&P 500 rose 67.9% (2020) and 28.7% (2021). return is from the March 23, 2020 low.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

Advisor Perspectives

DECEMBER 26, 2023

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 20th consecutive month in November as the LEI suggests a downshift in economic activity ahead. the index's lowest reading since May 2020. The index dropped 0.5% from last month to 103.0,

Economics 121

Economics 121

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 163 thousand jobs since February 2020. So, leisure and hospitality has now added back about 98% all of the jobs lost in March and April 2020. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 23.0%

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

MAY 10, 2023

This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -0.2% YoY as of April 2023, up from -1.0% YoY in March.

Food 363

Food Economics 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in September to 4.62

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). The current collapse is to a measure of 25, from a November 2020 peak of 77; the pandemic saw a fall to 13 from 58, and the GFC saw a collapse from 55 to 7.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

percent in the second quarter of 2023 , according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This graph shows the change in quarterly GDP from the 2023 comprehensive update of the National Economic Accounts (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for the last 5 years. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2

Economics 312

Economics Government Accounting Investments 312

Advisor Perspectives

JUNE 21, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in May to its lowest level since April 2020. While the index does signal softer economic conditions lay ahead, the LEI is currently not signaling a recession. The index fell 0.5% from the previous month to 101.2.

Economics 126

Economics 126

Wealth Management

OCTOBER 3, 2022

The values of New York office properties declined nearly 45 percent in 2020 and are forecast to remain roughly 39 percent below pre-pandemic levels due to the persistence of flexible work policies, according to a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Economics 255

Economics 255

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.1% in April 2020. In April 2020, 8.15 I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. in December 2021, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%.

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363