Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

APRIL 1, 2025

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI at 49% March 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in March after two consecutive months of expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M.,

Manufacturing 127

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 127

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Advisor Perspectives

MAY 17, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8.

Economics 127

Economics Economy 127

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investments 200

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

February 2025 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. The employment index was at 47.6%, down from 50.3% percent , 6.5

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My Through November the economy has added 2.55 range in 2023.

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 17, 2022

Home purchase applications continued to be held down by rapidly drying up demand, as high mortgage rates, challenging affordability, and a gloomier outlook of the economy kept buyers on the sidelines,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting.

Economy 348

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 348

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 22, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell for a 21st straight month in December as the LEI continues to signal underlying weakness in the U.S. the index's lowest reading since May 2020. The index inched down 0.1% from last month to 103.1,

Economics 133

Economics Economy 133

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

Echo Beach ) Why Japan Succeeds Despite Stagnation : For more than three decades, Japan has endured near-complete economic stagnation. The charismatic and colourful Mr Ma, who was one of China’s most prominent businessmen, had withdrawn from public life after criticising China’s financial sector in 2020.

Transportation 162

Transportation Economics Media Investments 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 49% November 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. percent is a 0.8-percentage

Manufacturing 263

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 263

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (nytimes.com) How to get free online access to the updated version of "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 264

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. She has been CEO February 2020. Stay invested.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? 2020 threw a wrench in everything. Things are very weird right now.

License 289

License Economics Banking Economy 289

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2023

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 298

Valuation Advertising Economy Food 298

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021).

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

Carson Wealth

MARCH 10, 2025

The worries are growing, from a potentially slowing economy, to a growing and more aggressive trade war, to worries over Washington policy. Then five years ago we shut down our economy during a once-a-century pandemic. Our basic conclusion was that while we did see an increase in economic risks, it did not change our baseline view.

Marketing 80

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 80

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 19, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in March to its lowest level since May 2020. The index fell 0.3% from last month to 102.4. Overall, the LEI continues to signal a fragile outlook for the U.S.

Economy 64

Economy Economics 64

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2023

March 2023 Services ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the services sector expanded in March for the third consecutive month as the Services PMI® registered 51.2 percent in December, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 The employment index decreased to 51.3%, from 54.0%. The Business Activity Index registered 55.4

Management 253

Management Economy Economics 253

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

August 2022 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in August, with the overall economy achieving a 27th consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The employment index was at 54.2%, up from 49.9% percent , 3.3

Manufacturing 188

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 188

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The fall in output was the solid overall and the second-sharpest since May 2020. ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2023

CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill. CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill.

Risk Management 293

Risk Management Manufacturing Management Government 293