The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. She has been CEO February 2020. Stay invested.

Distribution 273

Distribution Economy Clients Management 273

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (nytimes.com) How to get free online access to the updated version of "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 265

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? 2020 threw a wrench in everything. Things are very weird right now.

License 289

License Economics Banking Economy 289

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2023

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 298

Valuation Advertising Economy Food 298

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021).

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Advisor Perspectives

APRIL 19, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in March to its lowest level since May 2020. The index fell 0.3% from last month to 102.4. Overall, the LEI continues to signal a fragile outlook for the U.S.

Economy 64

Economy Economics 64

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Consider the Yardeni chart (top) showing earning surprises: Despite a variety of economic and geopolitical negatives, earnings have been holding up relatively well. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The fall in output was the solid overall and the second-sharpest since May 2020. ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2024

Bad things happen when the economy contracts. As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. There still has been no recession.

Economy 298

Economy Economics Consulting Marketing 298

The Big Picture

MARCH 22, 2023

CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill. CIO ) see also Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake : In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill.

Risk Management 293

Risk Management Manufacturing Management Government 293

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 90

Economics Economy Sales Commission 90

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2022

Businessweek ) see also Why the Rent Inflation Is So Damn High It’s just the latest chapter in the “everything is weird” economy. ( The “Peacewar” of Sanctions : The Economic Weapon: The Rise of Sanctions as a Tool of Modern War. ( The Atlantic ). • These are major life events that receive lots of attention. . Axios ). •

Management 299

Management Retirement Economy Accounting 299

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

The Big Picture

JULY 18, 2022

Let’s start with how we got here: A massive global pandemic led to a shutdown of the world’s economy. — avoided a catastrophic depression but supercharged the economy. with apologies to Douglas Adams) (March 9, 2020). Capitulation Playbook (May 19, 2022). Panic Selling Quantified (March 24, 2022).

Economy 278

Economy Marketing Marketing Clients 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. In the pre-2020 seller’s market, building owners found ways to make nearly every square foot of CRE property profitable. So far, these have achieved only mixed success.

Retail 195

Retail Economics Distribution Economy 195

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Along those lines, here are in chronological order, the thinkers who have helped shape how I view the world view, including how I philosophically think about the economy, markets, and investing. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., 10 Quotes That Shaped My Investment Philosophy 1.

Investing 345

Investing Investments Economy Portfolio 345

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates expansion for the 30th month in a row after contraction in April and May 2020. The Manufacturing PMI ® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5 percent; this is the index’s lowest reading since May 2020 (40.8 percentage points lower than the 50.2

Manufacturing 222

Manufacturing Business Planning Management Economy 222

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 17, 2023

March’s cooler CPI data provided further evidence that price pressures are fading in many pockets of the economy. April 20: Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) LEI points to elevated recession risk The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to retreat again in March, marking the twelfth straight month of decline.

Economics 98

Economics Retail Economy Sales 98

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

If the Fed starts cutting rates, like it did in 2020, or like it did in 2008, or like it did even in 2001, and it’s a panic. “ Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.”

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 3: ISM Services ISM services expected to fall, but remain in expansion territory The service sector grew in January following the first contraction reading in December since May 2020. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 145

Sales Economy Economics Investing 145

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy.

Banking 147

Banking Economics Retail Economy 147

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. Gold & Commodities – They largely did the same thing except they boomed in early 2020 and meandered sideways since.

Economy 89

Economy Retail Government Banking 89

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 80

Economy Sales Economics Investing 80

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 145

Sales Economy Banking Economics 145