Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 117

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 117

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Bell Investment Advisors

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The economic backdrop to these losses, however, stands out. The broader economy surprises, too. A report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that gross domestic product grew at an inflation-adjusted annual rate of 4.9% The post The Economy vs. Interest Rates appeared first on Bell Investment Advisors.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Investment Advisor Numbers 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The FOMC is expecting growth of just 0.4%

Economy 109

Economy Sales Economics Investments 109

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 17, 2023

March’s cooler CPI data provided further evidence that price pressures are fading in many pockets of the economy. April 20: Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) LEI points to elevated recession risk The index of leading economic indicators (LEI) is expected to retreat again in March, marking the twelfth straight month of decline.

Economics 98

Economics Retail Economy Sales 98

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. (nytimes.com) How to get free online access to the updated version of "Poor Charlie's Almanack."

Financial Advising 263

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 263

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 78

Economy Sales Economics Investing 78

The Big Picture

JANUARY 1, 2024

Barron’s ) • Ten Economic Questions for 2024 : The purpose of these questions is to provide a framework of how the U.S. economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises – like in 2020 with the pandemic – to adjust my thinking. She has been CEO February 2020. Stay invested.

Economy 268

Economy Distribution Clients Management 268

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22.

Economy 326

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 326

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

Economics 335

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 335

Advisor Perspectives

NOVEMBER 6, 2024

When Covid-19 brought the US economy to a standstill in the spring of 2020, America’s top executives called for a “national conversation” about the need for workers to return to work, warning of an “economic catastrophe” if they didn’t.

Economy 52

Economy Economics 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 11, 2023

The Equity Beat: Old Economy Stocks Aging Like Fine Wine mhannan Fri, 08/11/2023 - 17:10 Unlike my good friends who frequent Baltimore’s finest dining establishments about as often as the division-leading Orioles win (you know who you are), I would never be confused for a wine connoisseur. was only marginally better.

Economy 98

Economy Manufacturing Clients Economics 98

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. Gold & Commodities – They largely did the same thing except they boomed in early 2020 and meandered sideways since.

Economy 76

Economy Retail Government Banking 76

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My 1) Question #1 for 2022: How much will the economy grow in 2022? "My

Economics 111

Economics Sales Economy Banking 111

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 93

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 93

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

March 3: ISM Services ISM services expected to fall, but remain in expansion territory The service sector grew in January following the first contraction reading in December since May 2020. Under normal circumstances, January’s spending would be celebrated as a sign of robust consumer activity and continued economic expansion.

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 1 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Business Cycle Dating.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Retail Tax Planning 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Or will the economy lose jobs? "My Through November the economy has added 2.55 range in 2023.

Economics 73

Economics Sales Economy Food 73

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. Analysis: Job growth still solid Nonfarm payroll growth continued to moderate in March, slowing to 236,000 — a still-solid number, but the weakest monthly growth since December 2020.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

Please consider the November 2022 Services ISM ® Report On Business ® Economic activity in the services sector grew in November for the 30th month in a row — with the Services PMI ® registering 56.5 The fall in output was the solid overall and the second-sharpest since May 2020. ISM data and discussion by permission from ISM.

Economy 190

Economy Manufacturing Economics Healthcare 190

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 289

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 289

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 6, 2023

Other economic data showed a surprising jump in housing market activity and jobless claims remained very low, while core durable goods orders and shipments when adjusted for inflation were softish. However, our forecast still represents a solid increase as labor demand remains vibrant, especially in the services side of the economy.

Economics 52

Economics Transportation Manufacturing Economy 52

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 30, 2024

This marks the first rate cut since 2020, signaling the Fed is aggressively supporting the economy amid a backdrop of softening economic data. Last week, the Federal Reserve made a significant move by cutting its overnight lending rate by 50 basis points.

Economy 52

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

It uses (13 or so) inputs 1 to extrapolate a rough approximation of economic growth. I find these to be useful models but must constantly remind myself that they are merely rough approximations of the BEA GDP , which itself is a rough approximation of the US economy.

Banking 144

Banking Economics Retail Economy 144

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020).

Economy 326

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 326

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2023

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 293

Valuation Advertising Economy Food 293

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. In the pre-2020 seller’s market, building owners found ways to make nearly every square foot of CRE property profitable. So far, these have achieved only mixed success.

Retail 190

Retail Economics Distribution Economy 190

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 350

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 350

The Big Picture

AUGUST 5, 2022

. • Blame History for Making Recession Calls So Hard : The National Bureau of Economic Research has been putting dates on downturns since 1929 — well before there was such a thing as gross domestic product ( Bloomberg ) see also Does This Look Like a Recession To You? 2020 threw a wrench in everything. Things are very weird right now.

License 284

License Economics Banking Economy 284

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 335

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 335

Validea

MAY 5, 2023

With valuations still high, the threat of a recession still looms over the economy, ushering in a prolonged period of low returns across the market, from stocks and real estate to corporate profits, as well as elevated inflation and unemployment rates. But for long-term prosperity in the U.S.

Economics 52

Economics Government Economy Banking 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Mauldin Economics

JUNE 11, 2021

This may be an economically significant problem soon. But even if the virus disappears, we are going to spend years repairing the economic damage already done… and more may be coming. Source: CDC But starting in March 2020, COVID-19 generated excess deaths every week for almost an entire year. The economy will, too.

Economy 52

Economy Healthcare Medical Economics 52

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. GDP Update: -52.8% (June 2, 2020). BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 293

Government Economy Economics Marketing 293

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

Stocks Like Rate Cuts The big story this week was the Fed cutting interest rates for the first time since March 2020. If they are cutting due to a panic (think March 2020) or due to a recession (like in 2001 or 2007) potential trouble could indeed be lurking. All this is very positive for the economy. Matching the 13.9%

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 92

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. With the economy on firm footing and sentiment turning pessimistic, we remain optimistic a significant year-end rally is still possible. The Energizer Bunny Economy You just can’t put this economy down.

Marketing 92

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 92