Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 108

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 108

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 5, 2022

Today we celebrate the recovery of all the jobs lost in 2020, and the unemployment rate matching the lowest level since 1969. The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. million jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 369 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My I followed up with a brief post on each question. The unemployment rates was at 3.7%

Economics 111

Economics Sales Economy Banking 111

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 10, 2023

March’s employment report showed a continued moderation in job growth, but the number of hires was still solid. The new orders components in both surveys provide evidence of weakening economic demand, and the surveys are consistent with a slowing economy. percent, its highest level since February 2020. percent from 4.6

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 402 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 144

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 144

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 125

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 125

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 184 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 123

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 123

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 163 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 118

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 118

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.47% as of October 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 57

Portfolio Planning Economics Numbers 57

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 290 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 122

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 122

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 495 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs since February 2020. million jobs since February 2020.

Retail 141

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 141

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 932 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 145

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 410 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 132

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 132

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 130

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 130

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Amazon , now has 1.5 Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years. At least, not yet.

Economics 324

Economics Numbers Planning Investing 324

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). million from 4.19

Numbers 98

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 75 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 87

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 87

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 83

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 83

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 73

Economics Sales Economy Food 73

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 368 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 98

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 30, 2023

The Verge ) • We’ve got a data-quality problem : And US economic data is especially important for monetary policy right now. New Republic ) • The State of the Planet in 10 Numbers : Here is a snapshot of the warming world, from sea-level rise to fossil fuel subsidies to renewable energy growth.

Education 263

Education Assets Economics Numbers 263

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2024

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations; however, December and January payrolls were revised down by 167,000 combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 17 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 67

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 67

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs since February 2020. million in September.

Education 98

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 98

Indigo Marketing Agency

MAY 5, 2020

How To Grow Your Retirement Plan Business In The 2020 Economic Crisis. We’ve partnered with the experts at The Retirement Learning Center to update advisors on how the retirement plan landscape has been altered by the 2020 economic crisis. I’m super excited to welcome the team at Retirement Learning Center.

Retirement 52

Retirement Economics Retirement Planning Financial Planning 52

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.34% as of September 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Government 62

Government Portfolio Planning Economics 62

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week. That is, over the last 50 years, an extraordinarily low number. It’s a state program.

Numbers 286

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 286

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 93,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 349 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 70

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 70