Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 402 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 369 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 980 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. in February 2020)? "My I followed up with a brief post on each question. The unemployment rates was at 3.7%

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.47% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.47% as of October 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 147

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MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 410 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 184 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. This was the case in a nonsensical video depicting 100s of restaurant closings as proof the United States was in economic collapse.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 290 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 158 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 223 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6 YoY in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 163 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8 YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8%

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). The current collapse is to a measure of 25, from a November 2020 peak of 77; the pandemic saw a fall to 13 from 58, and the GFC saw a collapse from 55 to 7.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

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OCTOBER 7, 2022

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was slightly above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 11,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.20 million jobs since February 2020. million in September.

Education 246

Education Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 368 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic). million from 4.19

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.1% in April 2020. In April 2020, 8.15 We know population growth has been weak over the last several years, and that the baby boom generation is now retiring in large numbers.

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 75 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Calculated Risk

JULY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was above expectations, however April and May payrolls were revised down by 111,000 combined. Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Numbers 211

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 211

The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. I wanted to drop a quick note about the endless spate of layoff announcements — and why you should (mostly) ignore them. Amazon , now has 1.5 Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years. At least, not yet.

Numbers 326

Numbers Economics Planning Investments 326

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 8, 2023

economist.com) Some 2023 books that stuck with Ezra Klein including Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up.” bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. axios.com) The economics of the Christmas tree business. stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7%

Financial Advising 264

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 264

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining credit card utilization and its relationship with delinquency. An increasing number of borrowers missed credit card payments, revealing worsening financial distress among some households.” trillion at the end of March.

Economics 305

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 305

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don't have all data yet, but enough).

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. 2) Significant policy error. Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

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JUNE 2, 2023

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 93,000, combined. At the beginning of the pandemic, in March and April of 2020, leisure and hospitality lost 8.2 million jobs, and are now down 349 thousand jobs since February 2020.

Numbers 182

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 182