Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 18, 2022
Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.
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The Big Picture
AUGUST 12, 2024
Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?
The Big Picture
JANUARY 3, 2023
Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020.
The Big Picture
JUNE 26, 2023
Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 6, 2022
Hardly ever, but there are 3 specific eras: Following the long, slow post-GFC recovery, just before the pandemic, January 2020 U3 was at 3.5%; Prior to that you have to go back more than a century to October 1968 to May 1969 when the Unemployment rate was at 3.4%; before that, it was soon after WWII, in 1952-53, when Unemployment was under 3%(!)
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 12, 2022
This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.
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