Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 351

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 351

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. I ignored that downturn as a pandemic distortion.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Economy 309

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. Demand conditions worsened as the fourth quarter progressed, with new orders across the private sector falling in November at the fastest pace since the initial pandemic wave in May 2020.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.51

Numbers 165

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust), and in March 2020 (pandemic). 2020 -2.8% -1.5% Or will the economy lose jobs? 2009 -2.6%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

The Big Picture

MARCH 14, 2025

We discuss US fiscal policy, recession risks, and her New York Times bestseller “ The Deficit Myth: Modern Monetary Theory and the Birth of the Peoples Economy.” Senate Budget Committee, and was senior economic adviser for Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. She served as chief economist on the U.S.

Economics 201

Economics Budgeting Economy 201

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2023

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 10.0

Numbers 361

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 361

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 8.36

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investing Investments 347

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 11.2

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

The overall economy continued in expansion for the 58th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., percent in February , 0.6 percentage point lower compared to the 50.9 percent recorded in January.

Manufacturing 113

Manufacturing Economy Economics Management 113

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 7.37

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data. This is a measure of labor market turnover. million from 9.7

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333