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US Composite PMI Suggests the Economy is On the Verge of Recession

Mish Talk

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290
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Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363
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Thursday links: nonsensical claims

Abnormal Returns

(mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Apple New Apple ($AAPL) features could 'Sherlock' a number of third party apps. ft.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are clearly headed higher. ft.com) Economy Weekly initial unemployment claims are clearly headed higher. econbrowser.com) The Misery Index is down from its peak in 2020.

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Labor or Capital Driven Inflation?

The Big Picture

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Labor and Capital have swapped roles in 2020-era inflation: Over the 4 decades preceding the pandemic (1979 to 2019), profits contributed 11% to price growth while labor costs added more than half – about 60%.

Economics 336
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Friday links: consistent outperformance

Abnormal Returns

economist.com) Some 2023 books that stuck with Ezra Klein including Zeke Faux’s “Number Go Up.” stripe.press) Economy The November NFP report showed an increase of 199k jobs and a 3.7% bonddad.blogspot.com) 5 million more Americans are working now than in January 2020. unemployment rate.

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Four High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Calculated Risk

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 145
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Monthly NFPs Are Rounding Errors

The Big Picture

1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264