Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 360

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 360

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. The overall fall in activity was the second-fastest since May 2020 as inflation, rising borrowing costs and economic uncertainty weighed on demand. November even saw increasing numbers of suppliers, factories and service providers offering discounts to help boost flagging sales.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.6 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 361

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 4, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.4

Numbers 331

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 10.5 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 356

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 356

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings increased to 10.7 The number of hires edged down to 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The number of job openings (black) were up slightly year-over-year.

Numbers 354

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 354

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 8, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.4 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 349

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 349

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 3, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 The number of total separations was little changed at 5.3 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 147

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 31, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Numbers 333

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

JULY 6, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 6.2 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.9

Numbers 328

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Numbers 335

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 335

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.4

Numbers 311

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 311

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.6

Numbers 301

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 301

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Rising Fed Funds Rates make capital and credit more expensive; the calculus around both debt and equity shifts.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

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APRIL 2, 2024

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.6

Numbers 283

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 283

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Blue is for 2020.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. See my post in 2019: Don't Freak Out about the Yield Curve ) For the economy, what I focus on is single family starts and new home sales. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investments 361

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2023

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings decreased to 9.9 Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. million and 5.8

Numbers 246

Numbers Economy Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

emphasis added Unfortunately, in 2020, one of those low probability events happened ( pandemic ), and that led to a recession in 2020. The other two times were in early 2007 (housing bust / financial crisis), and in March 2020 (pandemic). New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363