Remove 2020 Remove Economy Remove Portfolio
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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020.

Economy 328
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Monday links: indiscriminate selling

Abnormal Returns

Treasuries The MOVE index is at 2020-like levels. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. axios.com) Investors are shunning the 20-year Treasury.

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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Dangerous for economy. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 13, 2020. Reached a mania.

Taxes 334
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At the Money: Managing a Portfolio in a Higher Rate Environment

The Big Picture

Investors should be considering capturing some of that yield in their portfolios. We’re going to discuss how these changes are likely to affect your portfolios and what you should do about it. And without that, you know, investment in the economy, we weren’t going to get the economy forward. 2020 comes.

Portfolio 162
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The Many Ways the FOMC Can Be Wrong…

The Big Picture

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. There is a real possibility that the Fed’s diagnosis is correct. Before rates drop?

Economy 352
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. This quarter, it was Sentiment. 1980-82 Double Dip Recession 2.

Media 351