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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Wall Street Journal ) • How Models Get the Economy Wrong : Seemingly complex and sophisticated econometric modeling often fails to take into account common sense and observable reality. American Prospect ) see also Six Ways Existing Economic Models Are Killing the Economy : The alleged science doesn’t match up to the real world.

Valuation 298
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Bottoming?

The Big Picture

Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Parts of the economy suffer – notably residential real estate, new job creation, and consumer spending. Not So Fast (April 3, 2020). My take on these probabilities looks something like this: 1. The Fed gets it precisely right : Yay!

Economy 295
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Round Trip

The Big Picture

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP? Too rapid rate increases? –

Economics 246
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Should you buy Trent despite its high valuation?

Trade Brains

.’s expansion, its potential future growth, and its sustainability, and whether the valuations are justified. The sector is rapidly emerging as a driving force in the country’s economy. Financial Overview Of Trent Financial Year Mar 2020 Mar 2021 Mar 2022 Mar 2023 Mar 2024 Revenue (Crores) 3,485.00

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Tuesday links: a healthy accounting system

Abnormal Returns

Markets How major asset classes performed in October 2020. capitalspectator.com) Don't be surprised to see the stock market rally before the economy bottoms out. every.to) Q3 saw big drops in startup valuations. klementoninvesting.substack.com) Economy The Fed is most hurting the middle class through rising rates.

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Wednesday links: late strategizing

Abnormal Returns

Markets Market valuations are a lot more attractive than they were a year ago. interest rates since 2020. finance.yahoo.com) Economy Auto loan delinquencies are on the rise. blog.validea.com) Visualizing U.S. visualcapitalist.com) Strategy The hardest part of investing is holding through tough times.

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Credit Risk Happens Fast – a SVB Postmortem

Discipline Funds

The 2020 and 2021 inflation was the tsunami. And the earthquake was the irrational boom that occurred in 2020/21. As irrational exuberance took hold of the markets we saw a huge surge in the valuations of private equity firms. You don’t have to pick just one. And that’s what makes the boom so interesting.