The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

October 2, 2017) 100-Year Bonds Can Fund Big Infrastructure Projects (September 3, 2019) Cost of Financing US Deficits Falls (December 18, 2020) Time to Stop Believing Deficit B t (September 3, 2021) MiB: Gary Cohn, Director of the National Economic Council, President of Goldman Sachs (September 30, 2023) _ 1.

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 18, 2025

And checking in on the GraniteShares YieldBoost SPY ETF (YSPY) that sells put spreads on a levered S&P 500 ETF; Yes, that is a rough start, clearly, but interestingly the math checks out. Portfolio 1 lagged by quite a bit in 2019 and then even more in 2020. YSPY sells put spreads on a 3x fund.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

The "endowment" result is very close to red line VBAIX every year except 2020 when it lagged by almost 600 basis point and 2022 when it outperformed by about 500 basis points. It did worse in the 2020 Pandemic Crash by 200 basis points which isn't problematic for how quickly everything snapped back. Is it this?

Math 52

Math Portfolio Taxes Marketing 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. 2020 Pandemic Panic ?!? ( Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. There is nothing that says TLT must get back to the $171 dollars it traded at in 2020.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 98

Discipline Funds

APRIL 19, 2023

The math on the 40% slice is much cleaner. When that 5 year instrument was yielding 0.25% like it was in 2020 that meant that every 1% increase in interest rates was offset by just 0.25% of interest along the way. So yes, as Josh notes in his interview, these criticisms were more valid in 2020 when interest rates were at 0%.

Portfolio 105

Portfolio Math Assets Management 105

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

Two of the three strategies have traded sideways in the 2020's. Simple math, it looks like the carry index has compounded at less than 3%. I said I was interested enough to start following it, having no idea what to expect. This chart from the paper doesn't paint a rosy picture. The red line for T-bills is price only.

Math 52

Math Management Portfolio Taxes 52

Sara Grillo

JUNE 24, 2024

The math behind Universal Life Insurance Interest Rates is a twisted web and most consumers are deceived. Know how the math works so you can see the potential risks that may exist with your policy. This correction was updated in 2020 with AG 49A and again in May 2023 with AG49B. Don’t be fooled! appeared first on Sara Grillo.

Insurance 59

Insurance Math Financial Advice Compliance 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 17, 2022

There's other math about outperformance but also the observation that momentum is prone to crashes. You don't see that before the 2020 Pandemic Crash though. The current event, rolling over slowly is more typical of bear market behavior as opposed to the crash in 2020. Here's the last year.

Math 98

Math Marketing Marketing 98

Discipline Funds

AUGUST 15, 2023

in 2020 to 4.2% But the math starts to change substantially when yields are 4.2% For reference, 10 year yields have moved from 0.5% over 3 years. This is the worst of all worlds because you had high interest rate risk and a low starting yield. and the Fed is approaching their terminal rate (peak interest rate).

Math 98

Math Government Assets Marketing 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 14, 2022

It doesn't look like an investment grade bond proxy and I would note that on a price basis it essentially fell the same amount as the NASDAQ during the pandemic crash in March 2020. PUTW maybe snapped back half of what the S&P 500 did in March/April 2020. PBP is the Invesco S&P 500 BuyWrite ETF.

Portfolio 72

Portfolio Math Clients Marketing 72

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

In the case of real estate a 2.29% weighting and for "private equity" companies it's about 17 basis points (looked at XLF holdings and then did a little math), that's just not going to move the needle. You may agree with Jack about not needing those things, that's valid, my point is that owning an index fund isn't a proxy for them.

Math 75

Math Portfolio Marketing Marketing 75

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And I thought, great, I just made partner.

Assets 299

Assets Clients Investing Investments 299

The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 15, 2021

As I wrote about in January 2020, starting yields tell you pretty much all you need to know about what your future returns will look like. Unfortunately, the math isn't on our side anymore. When rates went from 5% to 6%, bond investors took one step back to take three steps forward.

Math 52

Math Economy Portfolio 52

Yardley Wealth Management

OCTOBER 26, 2020

By Michael Garry Yardley Wealth Management October 26, 2020. Around 65 million Americans will receive more than $1 trillion in benefits during 2020, according to the Social Security Administration (SSA). While there always seems to be a future funding shortfall for Social Security, it’s a political problem, not a math problem.

Wealth Management 52

Wealth Management Estate Planning Financial Planning Retirement Planning 52

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JUNE 2, 2023

Alicia’s Experience One of my earliest experiences when I first decided to get into financial planning was participating in the Financial Planning Association’s Externship Program in the summer of 2020. Hannah put together a varied and diverse group of speakers that both inspired and directed my future path in financial planning.

Financial Planning 98

Financial Planning Planning CFP Financial Advisor 98

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 21, 2024

I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.

Numbers 147

Numbers Banking Investing Investments 147

Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2022

T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

Math 52

Math Assets Investing Investments 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

Commodities can easily go down with equities or in the case of the pandemic crash, the Invesco DB Commodity Tracking Fund (DBC) dropped more than the S&P 500 during the Pandemic Crash of 2020 and took longer to snap back. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7% and that is the number I will assume.

Portfolio 66

Portfolio Math Numbers Marketing 66

Nationwide Financial

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

The curve, however, continues to project cuts to the rate beginning next May, which seems optimistic given the tone of Fed officials and the math around getting inflation back close to their 2% target. Inflation data will be in focus this week, with consumer price inflation on Tuesday and producer price inflation on Wednesday.

Retail 52

Retail Math Banking Economics 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing.

Banking 204

Banking Government Insurance Taxes 204

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 29, 2022

Turns out the math checks out using Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 equities/fixed income portfolio and the Guggenheim Managed Futures Strategy Fund (RYMFX). A 20% allocation to RYMFX would have helped in the first three months of 2020 albeit with less of an impact. percentage points.

Math 40

Math Portfolio Clients Management 40

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills. The CAGR with dividends reinvested is 5.50%, 1.97% without and although its standard deviation is quite a bit lower that the S&P 500, during the Pandemic Crash of 2020 it pretty much dropped the same as the S&P 500.

Math 74

Math Retirement Numbers Portfolio 74

Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 4, 2022

If you’re good with math, then turning to financial planning or accounting or opening up a similar company could be one of the best recession proof businesses to start! The national pet industry made over $100 billion in sales for the first time in history in 2020! They aren’t likely to get rid of the person who knows the numbers.

Food 105

Food Economy Healthcare Economics 105

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

And you know, the only thing math works on recognition by peers, and there’s some prizes. And yet, the amount of math that’s been produced over the last, you know, few decades is just mind-blowing extraordinary. RITHOLTZ: So to put that into a little context, 2020, 2021, very founder-friendly deals. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Valuation 305

Valuation Investments Investing Engineering 305

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

00:21:42 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I mean, I think, well, what set us up was we, you know, we got the low right in 2020 for the right reasons. So we were very aggressive in 2020 and 2021. And nobody paid him any attention back in 2020. So right, because we agreed with Professor Siegel in April of 2020. And we did.

Valuation 162

Valuation Clients Investing Investments 162

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 16, 2022

And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. higher ROE. What is a good ROE in Indian stock market.

Pharmaceutical 59

Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Engineering Distribution 59

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics. So people really ask you, you take French and can you do math. Two reasons.

Assets 147

Assets Management Investments Investing 147

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

The blue line is equities and the red line is bonds up until the end of 2020. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% That's a pretty smooth, uninterrupted, multi-decade run for bonds. Since it only goes back to 1988 it doesn't track from the highest interest rates from earlier in the 80's, the ten year was at 8.5%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

The math is only off by a shade using leverage via UST and a little bit of SSO, remember RPAR is leveraged. In 2020, RPAR did much better than the replication, did a little worse in 2021, 2023 and 2024 YTD and in 2022 RPAR lagged the replication by 11%. The Replication is based on this from RPAR.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Assets Management Math 52

Good Financial Cents

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, by doing a little math, you can easily determine your hourly wage from your annual salary. For 2020, the federal poverty level for a single person without dependents is $12,760. For example, for a family of four in 2020, the poverty level is $26,200. 55K a Year Is How Much an Hour? However, in general, $26.44

Budgeting 64

Budgeting Taxes Transportation Insurance 64

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. I did it during the coronavirus collapse in 2020, and I did it again in 2022. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.

Investing 147

Investing Investments Management Retirement 147

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. So let’s talk a little bit about the current environment in the past couple of years starting with the 2020 pandemic. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah.

Clients 299

Clients Wealth Management Banking Investments 299

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

Over the last five years, it missed out on the stock market rally until late 2020 when it went parabolic, then drifted lower for much 2021. We dove in on the math at my old URL (sad story, no longer exists) and the math checks out. Sometimes it outperforms the S&P 500 and sometimes it doesn't.

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Clients 40

The Better Letter

DECEMBER 30, 2022

The current record – set in May 2020 using a tricked out silver Audi S6 disguised as a Ford Taurus Police Interceptor during the height of the recent pandemic, when roads were generally deserted – is 25 hours 39 minutes. More than that, however, we had purchased tickets for Disneyland for everyone for Wednesday. We wanted to go!

Planning 82

Planning Communication Investing Investments 82

Zajac Group

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

While the data isnt as black and white as other aspects of finance, the impact of behavioral finance is clearjust consider the Covid-induced crash in February 2020 or the meme stock phenomenon of 2021 (to name a few more recent events). Behavior Finance and Your Portfolio So much of the concept of investing is about logic, math, and numbers.

Taxes 52

Taxes Risk Tolerance Portfolio Investing 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We forget that there weren’t personal computers on everybody’s desk back then.

Assets 173

Assets Management Portfolio Marketing 173