The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. 2020 Pandemic Panic ?!? ( Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

Risk parity portfolios are particularly vulnerable when their active weighting algorithms fail to predict shifts in asset correlations." In the same period Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio compounded at 10.89% with a standard deviation of 12.43%. The table/chart goes back to FAPYX' inception.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 14, 2022

It doesn't look like an investment grade bond proxy and I would note that on a price basis it essentially fell the same amount as the NASDAQ during the pandemic crash in March 2020. PUTW maybe snapped back half of what the S&P 500 did in March/April 2020. The nucleus of non-gameover portfolios will always be equities.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

A little more specifically the need for diversified portfolios persists with the implication that bonds are the way to get this done. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. The blue line is equities and the red line is bonds up until the end of 2020. Portfolio 2 above has 65% in growth.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

As a quick reminder, a 67% allocation to 90/60 generally equates to a 100% allocation to a 60/40 portfolio like you might get from Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). For this post I assembled a less dramatic portfolio more in line with Krom's thinking. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 29, 2022

A 20% allocation to the average systematic trend fund in a 60/40 portfolio would have resulted in an annual drag of about 1.45 Turns out the math checks out using Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 equities/fixed income portfolio and the Guggenheim Managed Futures Strategy Fund (RYMFX).

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Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2022

T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

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The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And there was a problem with 168 of them at the end of 2008.

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The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 15, 2021

As I wrote about in January 2020, starting yields tell you pretty much all you need to know about what your future returns will look like. Unfortunately, the math isn't on our side anymore. Two, I don't know anybody who holds an entire portfolio of long-term bonds. The increase in income quickly made up for the price decline.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills. We've also looked at countless ways to incorporate a small allocation to covered calls funds to help reduce portfolio volatility, so using them as alts in a matter of speaking. Covered call funds have many favorable attributes.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. I buy everything.

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

The social impact score is especially helpful for analyzing and sourcing MBS outside of the growing, but still limited, labeled bond universe, allowing us to build a more diversified portfolio. According to the National Association of Realtors, low-income homeowners comprised just 27% of all homeowners in 2020, down from 38% in 2010.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 21, 2024

I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.

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Brown Advisory

JANUARY 17, 2024

One of our colleagues, Ken Stuzin, likens portfolio construction to Darwinian Investing – it is about survival of the fittest. In a concentrated portfolio, it is the losers that kill you. What sort of hit rate should we then expect within their portfolio? 5 As Table 2 below highlights, this team appears to be seriously good!

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 16, 2022

And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, The product portfolio includes dominant brands such as Pampers, Gillette, Whisper, Old Spice, Head & Shoulder, Ariel, etc. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. higher ROE. Nestle India Ltd.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

So I came down, met with our head of the portfolio review department, which oversees our external managers, met with our head of brokerage, and then met with the head of bind indexing, who was Ken Volpert at the time. And she was like, “You should come down and talk to some people at Vanguard.”

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

00:21:42 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I mean, I think, well, what set us up was we, you know, we got the low right in 2020 for the right reasons. So we were very aggressive in 2020 and 2021. And nobody paid him any attention back in 2020. So right, because we agreed with Professor Siegel in April of 2020. And we did.

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

But in the Mustachian Era (the years since 2011 when I started writing this blog ), there has only been one: the 2020 Covid Crash which only lasted about a month. It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.).

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Brown Advisory

JUNE 16, 2022

We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. Today the Global Leaders portfolio cash flow duration in real terms is in the 15 to 17-year range using this calculation. The last time U.S. and appeared to be going higher.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. And so, getting to your question about equities where we’re positioned right now, equities absolutely can conserve an important part in the portfolio. I was econ and kind of geeky.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

WENGER: Well, we reserve a lot of funds for follow-on, and we have a very sort of, I think, sophisticated reserves methodology that we’ve honed over many funds cycles now, where we actually built kind of a Monte Carlo analysis of the portfolio to see how much money we think we need to keep in reserve. RITHOLTZ: Right. There you go.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. BERRUGA: So many of our clients were struggling to find alternative sources of income for their portfolios.

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The Better Letter

DECEMBER 30, 2022

The current record – set in May 2020 using a tricked out silver Audi S6 disguised as a Ford Taurus Police Interceptor during the height of the recent pandemic, when roads were generally deserted – is 25 hours 39 minutes. More than that, however, we had purchased tickets for Disneyland for everyone for Wednesday. We wanted to go!

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing. ADMATI: Yes.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But you know exactly how they’re going to interplay within a portfolio, hugely powerful. You know, it’s not the equity market, and I run some big equity portfolios, you know, different. But, you know, it’s been in a portfolio for a long time. Last year, it’s in our tactical portfolios.

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The Big Picture

MAY 30, 2023

BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. I mean, there’s 50,000 kids in the Atlanta public school system, so you can do the math there. I believe I love math because it doesn’t have an opinion, that’s a Melody Hobson quote. RITHOLTZ: Right. BRYANT: Number two, money is emotional. RITHOLTZ: Yes.

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The Big Picture

JULY 4, 2023

.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee. LMR in 2020 was 4.6

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

But last year, 2020, how do you look at these breaking new stories and all the buzz and mania around an IPO for both good and bad? RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about some imbalances, and I’m thinking about the sort of meme stock mania that began in 2020, when everybody was stuck at home during the pandemic, and just exploded in 2021.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. 2020 was a terrible year for XYLD. I have 75/50 in mind as sort of a benchmark.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 18, 2024

Three subsequent sales in 2020. 00:40:26 [Speaker Changed] They, they know, they know math, they know math. 00:49:16 [Speaker Changed] You know, I have a, a chapter and, and an upcoming book about, you are responsible for your portfolio. Nobody cares about your portfolio. That’s a whole nother thing.

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The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

Math is powerful. Winning as a gambler is tough generally , but there are typically several Super Bowl bets where simple math demonstrates that the line is off (in terms of reality if not in terms of equalizing the total bets). If you know and can apply it, math is a major edge in gambling about football and elsewhere.

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Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The prime-age employment-population ratio is 80.6%, matching the highest recorded in the last cycle in January 2020, when the economy appeared to be in pretty good shape (pre-COVID). It indicates that more people are working and want to work than at any point between 2001 and 2020. in October 2023).

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

I think what’s important, though, and what’s key is that we found ourselves at a very interesting point in time, in 2020, in the wake of George Floyd, in the middle of COVID. RITHOLTZ: Why is it not surprising that a math nerd is also a placekicker? And many of those gentlemen have gone on to do incredible things as well.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

SEIDES: But market returns across — RITHOLTZ: The past decade, 2010 to 2020, we were what? That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. RITHOLTZ: Oh no, it’s much worse. SEIDES: It’s lower. It’s lower.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 27, 2023

She was a partner and a portfolio manager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. And so if you compare that to today, if you remember Oaktree raised $15 billion fund in 2020, on its own. For example, you talk about the 2020 distressed cycle, and it’s interesting to me that it was so short, so shallow.

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