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So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And I thought, great, I just made partner.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. So let’s talk about managing through volatility. 2020 was a huge year. BERRUGA: Yeah.
But yes, I was given my own column and by that point, having seen all these star managers come and go, you know, I had become an index fund devotee, and in column after column I banged the drum for index funds to the point where my editors were asking me, Hey, could you write about something else? It’s, it’s a temporary move.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. So I, as a discretionary portfoliomanager, if you hand me cash, I can look at the market and say, you know what?
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. What does that do in terms of resetting the cycle? Just buy stocks that are going up.
Even with 75% accuracy we only move from an investable universe where 30% of constituents outperform to now selecting the portfolio from a pool with a 56% win rate. We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. This is why industry hit rates are so low.
She was a partner and a portfoliomanager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. And so if you compare that to today, if you remember Oaktree raised $15 billion fund in 2020, on its own. If you think of the biggest bankruptcy in 2020 was Hertz. So the magnitude is not even comparable.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. ’cause and, and this isn’t a, a beat obsession on arc, but since in inception she’s underperformed the s and p 500, including one year, I think it was 2020 where she was up something like 168%. So, so you set to retire as portfoliomanager this year, you mentioned your two successors.
I was a fixed income portfoliomanager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of PortfolioManagement. I think, you know, kind of near the end of 2020, maybe people were being quiet about that affiliation for a while. I then got just very lucky.
HOFFMAN: You know, go back to early 2020, I mean, every beat was a COVID beat pretty quickly too, right? HOFFMAN: You know, I start the book kind of in earnest at Davos 2020, which will to me just go down as like the most absurd gathering of human beings in history. ” This is the end of January of 2020. RITHOLTZ: Right.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And are you saying the recession in 2020 is similar to recession in the 1950s?
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. What, what was your experience during the first quarter of 2020 during the pandemic s and p down 34%. What was the career plan?
Matt Eagan has spent his entire career in fixed income from credit analyst to portfoliomanager. Now he’s the head of the discretion team at Loomis Sales, which manages well over $335 billion in client assets. I started out math and, and physics, and in high school I was a rock star in math and physics.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Which was interesting because I actually started my career at JP Morgan Asset Management in the high yield and investment grade credit research team. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. 00:15:06 [Speaker Changed] But hindsight’s 2020. And I just learned a tremendous amount.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. He helps portfoliomanagers make sense of the world. And so you have, hindsight is great, but always, 00:48:21 [Speaker Changed] But 2020. So at that point, I had a pretty big career. Not, not useful. And they have problems, you know, themselves.
He was elected to the Institutional Investor Hall of Fame in 2020. William Priest, chairman, co-chief investment officer, and a portfoliomanager at TD Epoch, picked Meta (+66 percent), which handily beat the S&P 500, but his other four picks did not. His 2024 year-end target was 4,200, down almost 9 percent.
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