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So along those lines, there are some venture firms that don’t really seem to care a lot about valuations and others seem to focus on a little bit. Is valuation significant, or is it, hey, we’re going to make 100 investments and if two or three workout, the valuations are irrelevant? How do you fall in that spectrum?
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. Second part of our framework is valuation fundamental work. Well, that means valuations are probably too high.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And I thought, great, I just made partner.
T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
They use several valuation metrics to know more about the company. And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. higher ROE. Nestle India Ltd.
But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. I did it during the coronavirus collapse in 2020, and I did it again in 2022. They will earn that market return less, whatever they’re paying.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. By this valuation method, the portfolio cashflow duration is in the 16 to 17-years range. Maths has a long half-life and a DCF correctly done accounts for inflation.
But in the Mustachian Era (the years since 2011 when I started writing this blog ), there has only been one: the 2020 Covid Crash which only lasted about a month. It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.).
We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. Both types of error are due to a combination of either mis-assessing the business quality or its valuation (or both). nor on valuation and IRR in order to avoid type 1 errors of inclusion. Good process, bad outcome.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. 2020 was a huge year. You know, we had a really good 2020. RITHOLTZ: That makes a lot of sense.
I got the sense that, so Churnin takes 51% for a fairly modest valuation, 10 or $15 million. Three subsequent sales in 2020. That, that gives Barstool a half a billion dollar valuation. 00:40:26 [Speaker Changed] They, they know, they know math, they know math. And that was really the end of that.
SEIDES: But market returns across — RITHOLTZ: The past decade, 2010 to 2020, we were what? RITHOLTZ: So hold the duration risk aside with those two, but just for an investor in treasuries, I know you’ve done the math before. What’s the valuation? RITHOLTZ: Oh no, it’s much worse. SEIDES: It’s lower.
Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. My favorite stat from 2020, from the lows in March till the end of the year, the equity markets gained 68 percent. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? Where are we?
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation?
But plenty of valuation measures, it has no applicability for price-to-sales. And caring about price versus anything, even if it were immune to intangibles, was not a very good thing until late 2020, since the GFC, so about 11 years. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. It can apply to earnings. ASNESS: Yeah.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. What, what was your experience during the first quarter of 2020 during the pandemic s and p down 34%. What was the career plan?
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And are you saying the recession in 2020 is similar to recession in the 1950s?
It was about $170 million valuation. So here’s the math, Barry. If you have seven $50 incremental year, then every 10 year old in America, when they enter into the fifth or sixth grade and the teacher says, Hey, today we’re gonna talk about math or compounding or stocks or capitalism, they’ll say, open up.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. 00:15:06 [Speaker Changed] But hindsight’s 2020. That is not being reflected in valuations from a top down standpoint. One is, if you think about EM, equity valuations versus the s and p, the EM index is trading at, you know, 10 to 11 times forward pe.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Literally the first check-in to Robinhood, which went public in 2021 at about a $34 billion valuation. RITHOLTZ: He was the first (inaudible) in round B at the higher valuation. Is it about the valuation? Back then I was Wallstrip was like a 400K valuation. RITHOLTZ: Valuation didn’t make much of a difference.
Then we have, you know, 2020, 2021, another — oh, not quite 25 years, but 22 years. SCHWARTZ: May of 2020. You were saying this in early 2020. And as you know, I said the increase of the money supply in 2020 was the greatest in history. Now, they grew at 25% in 2020 and about 18% in 2021. Some did better.
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