Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.55% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.60% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.55% as of March 31, 2023.

Portfolio 234

Portfolio Numbers Planning 234

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2024

Investors should be considering capturing some of that yield in their portfolios. We’re going to discuss how these changes are likely to affect your portfolios and what you should do about it. My stock portfolio is recovering. 2020 comes. We have a big downturn in 2020. amongst institutional traders.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Management Assets Banking 162

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. That is a significant number to recall whenever people posit we either are in, or just were in, or are about to tumble into a recession. This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Accounting Economy 264

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 trillion) Agency MBS portfolio with an estimate weighted average life of 8 - 9 years to just slowly roll off adds even more to this private-sector maturity transformation.

Assets 165

Assets Portfolio Accounting Marketing 165

Abnormal Returns

JULY 18, 2022

Treasuries The MOVE index is at 2020-like levels. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. nytimes.com) Covid did a number on global childhood vaccinations.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economy Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains at 0.22% in April he Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of April 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Planning Marketing 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. My portfolio was tiny; I had no 401k, and my wife’s 403(b), with less than a decade’s worth of contributions, was barely 5-figures.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.23% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.23% as of June 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.31% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.33% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.31% as of September 30, 2023.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Planning 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Jim Bianco, Chief Strategist at Bianco Research, and His firm has been providing objective and unconventional research and commentary to portfolio managers since 1990, and it is top rated amongst institutional traders. It’s a state program.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.34% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.34% as of September 30, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Government 162

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.23% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.23% as of December 31, 2023.

Portfolio 173

Portfolio Government Planning Numbers 173

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.26% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.29% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.26% as of November 30, 2023.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Economy Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

APRIL 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains at 0.22% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of March 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Numbers 147

Numbers Planning Portfolio Marketing 147

Discipline Funds

APRIL 19, 2023

This piece was inspired by this fantastic Josh Brown rant on CNBC about how the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio isn’t dead. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. Let’s put some numbers to this to explain why. Give it a watch. These are mostly quibbles applicable to specific investors.

Portfolio 105

Portfolio Math Assets Management 105

The Big Picture

JANUARY 24, 2024

After-tax equity returns from your non-tax-exempt portfolios. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Ari Rosenbaum of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, now a division of investing giant Franklin Templeton. So we, for practical purposes, remove those from the portfolio.

Taxes 246

Taxes Portfolio Wealth Management Management 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 23, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.31% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.31% as of August 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 147

Portfolio Planning Numbers Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 18, 2025

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.40% in January The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 7 basis points from 0.47% of servicers portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.40% as of January 31, 2025.

Numbers 133

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 133

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of February 29, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Taxes Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.22% in January The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 1 basis point from 0.23% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.22% as of January 31, 2024.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Numbers Economics 162

The Big Picture

JUNE 21, 2023

Their numbers are few – they are the exception that proves the rule. of publicly traded companies that put up those giant performance numbers over an extended period of time. A portfolio of passive low-cost indexes should make up the core of your holdings. John Neff, Julian Robertson, and Will Danoff round out the list.

Management 312

Management Investments Investing Numbers 312

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

The Trinity Replication captures some of the effect of the market longer term, maybe enough, maybe not enough, you can look at the other post to get more numbers, but that is what real diversification looks like. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

Calculated Risk

JUNE 24, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.21% in May The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance declined slightly to 0.21% as of May 31, 2024. million borrowers since March 2020.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 21, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.39% in July The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.44% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.39% as of July 31, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Retirement Numbers 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Here's CWB compared to a couple of other funds we've looked at recently as possible game over funds and Vanguard Balanced Income Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. In terms of numbers comparing CWB, PUTW and VAMO; Same stats for the S&P 500 and VBAIX. The best year for CWB which was in 2020 skews the CAGR to 9.82

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Numbers Clients Management 75

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 2, 2023

Sturgeon’s law suggest 300,00 of them are not crap – and that number seems generous. Hence, whatever your views are about the economy, markets, your portfolio, etc., We model the economy, we model markets, we create Monte Carlo simulations of how our portfolios will perform. moment for me, and stood the test of time.

Investments 345

Investments Investing Economy Portfolio 345

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

We will say this about the election — we could see some market volatility this week, although the extra days it took to determine the winner in 2020 actually saw market strength. However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise because we knew Hurricanes Milton and Helene would weigh on the numbers. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.44% in June The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from [0.49%] of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to [0.44%] as of June 30, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. So I interviewed with a bunch of banks, got a number of job offers by the end of the week, and joined Goldman Sachs in October 1998. I ended up being hired onto the high yield desk as a research analyst and did that for a number of years, a couple of years.

Assets 299

Assets Clients Investments Investing 299

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 9, 2025

A portfolio strategy that goes narrower than a couple of broad based index funds probably has some exposure to dividend stocks already so the decision about whether to make any changes can be moot, you already have some exposure. To be clear, Portfolio 3 does use the portable alpha approach, it is leveraged by 40%.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Taxes 52

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.29% in October The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.31% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.29% as of October 31, 2023.

Portfolio 130

Portfolio Planning Numbers 130

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Austin Goolsbee. The supply side was healing on the supply chain, and there was a big surge of labor force participation from a number of groups. I think number one. Inflation as a driver of returns. It’s a very noisy series.

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

Fortune Financial

OCTOBER 14, 2024

It has been my experience when reviewing portfolios that diversification is typically expressed simply as a number of various stocks owned, or owning a handful of asset classes, usually stocks of various sizes and geographies, and bonds of varying maturities.

Asset Allocation 131

Asset Allocation Government Portfolio Financial Advisor 131

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

Torsten Slok blogged about how ineffective bonds have been in terms of providing any return or diversification benefits lately in the context of a 60/40 portfolio. The third portfolio is just the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). Despite all the leverage, Portfolio 1 has a very smooth ride including up a lot in 2022.

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Asset Allocation Assets Management 52

Indigo Marketing Agency

MARCH 20, 2025

drop in the first 48 trading days of the year marks its worst start since 2020, such declines are not unprecedented. When clients see red numbers flashing across their screens, their instinct is often to panic, pull out of investments, or assume the worst. A notable example is 2003, when the S&P 500 reversed an 8.6%

Communication 69

Communication Financial Advisor Marketing Marketing 69