Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 0.39% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.33% as of August 31, 2023.

Portfolio 321

Portfolio Planning Numbers 321

Calculated Risk

MARCH 17, 2025

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.38% in February The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.40% of servicers portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.38% as of February 28, 2025.

Portfolio 124

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Planning 124

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 12, 2025

Let's dig in some more on Permanent Portfolio quadrant style. Next is the allocation for the United States Sovereign Wealth Fund ETF that I made up a few days ago and next to that is my most recent attempt from November to recreate the Cockroach Portfolio which is managed by Mutiny Funds. That is a very specialized type of result.

Portfolio 59

Portfolio Taxes Numbers Investments 59

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.60% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.75% in June).

Portfolio 328

Portfolio 328

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. 2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 4, 2024

Investors should be considering capturing some of that yield in their portfolios. We’re going to discuss how these changes are likely to affect your portfolios and what you should do about it. My stock portfolio is recovering. 2020 comes. We have a big downturn in 2020. amongst institutional traders.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Management Assets Banking 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 21, 2025

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases Slightly to 0.47% in December The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.50% of servicers portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.47% as of December 31, 2024.

Portfolio 124

Portfolio Planning Numbers 124

Calculated Risk

JUNE 20, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.49% in May The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.51% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.49% as of May 31, 2023.

Portfolio 246

Portfolio Numbers Planning Marketing 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

We can credit three elements for this massive outperformance: -Substantial prices resets: 57% in 2008-09 and 34% in 2020. Fiscal stimulus 2020-22. – Covid Pandemic Crash, March 2020 : Fast and furious, it took a mere 22 trading days from February 19 to March 20 to see a fall of 33.9% The next ~12 years saw gains of 608.5%

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.48% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.60% in July).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

Calculated Risk

MARCH 27, 2023

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.04% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.11% in January).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

AUGUST 17, 2022

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. Concentrated portfolio risk. Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) August 13, 2020. Lobotomized investing. Dangerous for economy.

Taxes 334

Taxes Portfolio Management Investments 334

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (1% of portfolio), 2.75% are seriously delinquent (down from 2.86% in May).

Portfolio 246

Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Staying long through the 60-day 34% drop during the 2020 pandemic; getting out of the market ahead of the 2022 rate hiking cycle; and getting back in October 2022 for the next bull leg. Consider what you would have had to do over the past 2 decades to be a successful timer.

Marketing 304

Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 2, 2023

BAML’s Chief Equity Technician Stephen Suttmeier likens the 2020 crash to the modern version of the 1987 crash: A substantial crash that took place 7 years into the start of a new bull. Secular Bull Market : US stocks are in the 5-6th inning of a bull market. Historical comparisons imply this market may have another 3-7 years to go.

Taxes 288

Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 288

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 trillion) Agency MBS portfolio with an estimate weighted average life of 8 - 9 years to just slowly roll off adds even more to this private-sector maturity transformation.

Assets 165

Assets Portfolio Accounting Marketing 165

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 20, 2023

downtownjoshbrown.com) A lot of stuff matters beside your portfolio. obliviousinvestor.com) Splitting your portfolio in two. savantwealth.com) The IRS is extending an olive branch to taxpayers who owe money from 2020-2021. (financialsamurai.com) Investing Five ways you lost money in 2023 including overtrading.

Retirement 279

Retirement Portfolio Taxes Accounting 279

Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2024

Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.

Portfolio 195

Portfolio 195

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.55% in March The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 5 basis points from 0.60% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.55% as of March 31, 2023.

Portfolio 234

Portfolio Numbers Planning 234

Abnormal Returns

JULY 18, 2022

Treasuries The MOVE index is at 2020-like levels. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. twitter.com) 60/40 Portfolio A reason why the 60/40 portfolio isn't working this time around. axios.com) Investors are shunning the 20-year Treasury.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economy Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The Fed is right about inflation but lacks the appropriate tools to address the 2020 inflation cycle. Regardless, it’s a worthwhile exercise to wargame Fed actions, and consider what they might mean to your portfolio and/or personal finances. The Fed is wrong about inflation, in magnitude and/or its direction. Before inflation falls?

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In the stock market, its anyone with a portfolio or 401k/IRA or trading account. Cars are for Driving, Sneakers are for Wearing (November 11, 2020). The Hidden World of Failure (October 23, 2020). September 18, 2020). _. They do not follow the fiduciary rule but instead swap hats on a whim. Previously : Bought or Sold?

Accounting 299

Accounting Commission Investing Investments 299

Discipline Funds

APRIL 19, 2023

This piece was inspired by this fantastic Josh Brown rant on CNBC about how the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio isn’t dead. The 60/40 stock/bond portfolio is the gold standard of portfolios. So yes, as Josh notes in his interview, these criticisms were more valid in 2020 when interest rates were at 0%. Give it a watch.

Portfolio 105

Portfolio Math Assets Management 105

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.51% in April The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 4 basis points from 0.55% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.51% as of April 30, 2023.

Portfolio 204

Portfolio Numbers Planning Taxes 204

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Today, the financial plan itself is increasingly becoming not just a ‘value-add’ supporting other services like portfolio management, but rather the whole purpose of (and primary value proposition for) the client relationship to begin with. A lot has changed since 2020, though.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Certified Financial Planner Financial Planning CFP 245

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak. The GFC and the pandemic were global phenomena; the 2022 market was the worst since 1981 for a 60/40 portfolio.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 19, 2024

We work on theoretical portfolios here all the time that blend in strategies that really are negatively correlated or at least very little correlation. Both portfolios have higher standard deviations than the Trinity Replication but much higher returns. Enduring a bear market is about both, behavior and portfolio construction.

Portfolio 93

Portfolio Accounting Clients Marketing 93

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests. (I have long been a fan of the concept of Strong Opinions, Weakly Held ).

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 24, 2024

After-tax equity returns from your non-tax-exempt portfolios. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Ari Rosenbaum of O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, now a division of investing giant Franklin Templeton. So we, for practical purposes, remove those from the portfolio.

Taxes 246

Taxes Portfolio Wealth Management Management 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 18, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.26% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.29% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.26% as of November 30, 2023.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Planning Economy Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 20, 2024

million borrowers since March 2020. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance dropped 1 basis point to 0.39%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) stayed the same at 0.31%. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Planning Marketing 162

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 8, 2023

1 This is significant for two reasons: First, it is a full 5 million more people working today than in January 2020, just before the pandemic struck. It was that 157.087 million people are employed full-time in the United States.1 This is not a popular opinion.

Numbers 264

Numbers Retirement Economy Accounting 264

Calculated Risk

JULY 22, 2024

million borrowers since March 2020. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 5 basis points to 0.44%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) stayed flat at 0.31%. Furthermore, the performance of both loan workouts and overall servicing portfolios weakened, particularly for government loans.”

Numbers 162

Numbers Portfolio Government Planning 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2024

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.23% in December The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 3 basis points from 0.26% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.23% as of December 31, 2023.

Portfolio 173

Portfolio Government Planning Numbers 173

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.31% in September The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 2 basis points from 0.33% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.31% as of September 30, 2023.

Portfolio 162

Portfolio Numbers Insurance Planning 162

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 21, 2024

million borrowers since March 2020. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 10 basis points to 0.76%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 2 basis points to 0.37%. “The Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.3

Government 162

Government Portfolio Planning Numbers 162

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340