Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 18, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to October 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the third look at local markets in October.

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 12, 2025

The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Services less rent of shelter was up 3.8% YoY in February, down from 3.9% YoY in January. Durables were at -1.2% YoY as of February 2025, unchanged from -1.2% YoY in January.

Food 251

Food 251

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

The first graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Total payrolls increased by 12 thousand in October.

Manufacturing 306

Manufacturing Government 306

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MARCH 3, 2025

The big story for January was that existing home sales increased year-over-year (YoY) for the fourth consecutive month following year-over-year declines every month since July 2021. However, sales in January, at 4.08 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) were down from December and still historically low.

Sales 162

Sales Marketing Marketing 162

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JANUARY 20, 2025

million containers and trailers in 2024, the most since 2021; the third most ever (behind 2018 and 2021); and up 9.3% (1.17 Q3 2018 and Q2 2021 were higher among all quarters.) railroads originated 13.84 million units) over 2023. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. over Q4 2023 and the most ever for any quarter.

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162

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 363

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

million in November 2021). months in November 2021. below the November 2021 sales rate. year-over-year (blue) in November compared to November 2021. Year-over-year, sales dwindled by 35.4% (down from 6.33 Total housing inventory registered at the end of November was 1.14 million units, which was down 6.6%

Sales 362

Sales 362

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OCTOBER 17, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 33.7% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then.

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363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -8.9K Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 47.7% Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from 514 thousand.

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363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 58.0% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. Altos reports inventory is down 2.6% week-over-week and down 7.2% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image.

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361

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -4.8K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -9.9K Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 50.3% Altos reports inventory is down 0.8% week-over-week and down 2.3% from 499 thousand.

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360

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 20, 2023

million in December 2021). months in December 2021. below the December 2021 sales rate. year-over-year (blue) in December compared to December 2021. Year-over-year, sales sagged 34.0% (down from 6.09 Total housing inventory registered at the end of December was 970,000 units, which was down 13.4% from November but up 10.2%

Sales 353

Sales 353

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MAY 11, 2023

This is the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021 when it was 264,000. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 249,250. The 4-week moving average was 245,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week's unrevised average of 239,250.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 31.8% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory increased for the 4th consecutive week, increasing slightly last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Altos reports inventory is up 31.8%

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363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 1, 2023

in Q4 2021. in Q2 2021, and unchanged from 11.2% in Q4 2021. in Q2 2021. in Q4 2021. in both Q1 and Q2 2021. in both Q1 and Q2 2021. Compared to Q3, asking rent in Q4 increased by 0.3% (from $35.05 to $35.14), and effective rent edged up 0.1% (from $28.00 to $28.04). in Q4 2022, up from 18.5%

Retail 363

Retail Assets Investing Investments 363

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NOVEMBER 1, 2022

from October 2021. It appears the "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021. Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 357

Sales 357

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OCTOBER 3, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 31.1% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory increased for the 3rd consecutive week, increasing 0.8% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Altos reports inventory is up 31.1% year-over-year.

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Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2022

That’s the lowest year-over-year appreciation recorded since April 2021 and partially reflects continued cooling buyer demand due to higher mortgage rates and housing trends motivated by the COVID-19 outbreak winding down. year over year in August 2022 compared to August 2021. Although U.S. compared to July 2022. emphasis added

Sales 358

Sales Marketing Marketing 358

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OCTOBER 14, 2022

percent from September 2021. percent above September 2021. On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 8.2 From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. billion, virtually unchanged from the previous month, but 8.2 percent (±0.2

Retail 363

Retail Sales Food 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.62% in September 2021. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.83% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.95%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.55% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.57%). This is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Portfolio 363

Portfolio 363

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in December; Up 4.0% On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 4.0% in December, up from up 3.9% YoY in November. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% YoY in May 2023.

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147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.33% in November 2021. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.71%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.52% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.53%). This is slightly below the pre-pandemic lows.

Portfolio 361

Portfolio 361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 2, 2023

However, sales decreased in 2021 due to supply issues. The "supply chain bottom" was in September 2021. The impact of COVID-19 was significant, and April 2020 was the worst month. After April 2020, sales increased, and were close to sales in 2019 (the year before the pandemic).

Sales 360

Sales Marketing Marketing 360

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 28.7% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021, 2020 (milestone 3 above) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory increased for the 2nd consecutive week, increasing 0.9% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 28.7%

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Calculated Risk

MARCH 13, 2025

In Q4 2024, mortgage debt increased $100 billion, down from $105 billion in Q3, and down from the cycle peak of $459 billion in Q2 2021. In the mid 00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

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Sales Accounting 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Compared to the same week in 2021, inventory is up 60.2% Here is a graph of the inventory change vs 2021 (milestone 2 above), 2020 (milestone 3) and 2019 (milestone 4). Active inventory decreased last week. Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2023

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Peak Month June June Oct June June December -7.0% -3.8% -0.7% -2.2% -11.3% N/A In 2020, prices increased late into the year and only decline slightly seasonally (the start of the pandemic buying boom), and in 2021, median prices only declined about 3% from peak to bottom. January -8.9% -6.7% -1.2% -3.4%

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 18, 2022

percentage point above its long-run (1972–2021) average. above the average from 1972 to 2021. Capacity utilization moved up 0.2 percentage point in September to 80.3 percent , a rate that is 0.7 emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. Capacity utilization at 80.3%

Manufacturing 362

Manufacturing 362

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 30, 2023

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.25% in December 2021. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.49% are seriously delinquent (unchanged from 3.49%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.52%). This is at the pre-pandemic lows.

Portfolio 355

Portfolio 355

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but below last year and still well below normal levels. It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year, but above 2021 levels - and possibly above 2020 levels late in the year. Inventory was down 1.3%

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360

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2022

The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.46% in October 2021. For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (1% of portfolio), 3.71% are seriously delinquent (down from 3.83%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2021 (98% of portfolio), 0.53% are seriously delinquent (down from 0.55%). This is close to pre-pandemic levels.

Portfolio 353

Portfolio 353

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

After a historic tightening in 2021, multifamily occupancy has been slowly but consistently easing for over three years amid an influx of new inventory. On the supply side of the rental market, our national vacancy index now sits at 6.9

Marketing 147

Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. Purple is for 2021, and Orange is for 2022, and Red is for 2023. This data is as of June 25th. Blue is for 2020.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

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FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Change in Median House Price from January to June 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 January to June 13.7% Note: In 2020, prices increased late into the year and peaked in October, but prices peaked in June for all the other years. The NAR reported the median price was $396,900 in January 2025, down 7.0% from $426,900 in June 2024.

Sales 162

Sales 162