Calculated Risk

MARCH 1, 2025

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. -- Monday, March 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. 12:30 PM: Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell , Economic Outlook , At The University of Chicago Booth School of Business 2025 U.S.

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Sales Economics Manufacturing Government 162

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DECEMBER 17, 2022

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. -- Monday, December 19th -- 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, unchanged from 33.

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Sales Manufacturing Numbers Economics 243

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. I know of no better authority to cite than Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, from his June 16, 2021 presser : “The dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves. To wit: The Dot Plot.

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Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

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DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth increased sharply in 2021 and for most of 2022. I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question. in July 2022.

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The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. During that time, consuming lots of academic research, I reached a few logically supported conclusions. But there are other surprises around the minimum wage. Previously : Why Aren’t There Enough Workers?

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Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

The Big Picture

JUNE 1, 2023

Regardless, credit Adam Hale Shapiro, a senior economist in the Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, for calling out that his boss is wrong about this issue… Source : How Much Do Labor Costs Drive Inflation? (

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OCTOBER 5, 2022

From Moody’s Analytics Senior Economist Lu Chen: Office continues its bumpy ride, and Retail remains flat Office vacancy has been persistently stuck at over 18% since early 2021 , a consequence of excess inventories and strains on companies’ expansion plans. in Q3 2021. Q2 2021 at 18.5% in Q1 2021, and down from 11.3%

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MAY 10, 2023

This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at -0.2% YoY as of April 2023, up from -1.0% YoY in March.

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Food Economics 363

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JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million to 1.5

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DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Inventory was up 3.0%

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Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Our planet has done this about 4.54

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Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

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JUNE 13, 2023

This is a topic I discussed in Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2. The second graph shows that goods prices started to increase year-over-year (YoY) in 2020 and accelerated in 2021 due to both strong demand and supply chain disruptions. Durables were at 0.0% YoY as of May 2023, up from -0.2% YoY in April.

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Food Economics 356

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DECEMBER 9, 2022

On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 25% higher than in November 2021, the commercial component was up 28%, and institutional planning was 21% higher.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 23, 2023

Microsoft laid off 10% of its 221,000 workforce bringing headcount back to mid-2021 levels. Amazon , now has 1.5 million employees, more than half of whom were hired in 2020-2022. Google just fired 12,000 people; they hired 57,000 over the past two years. Last, the Labor market remains very robust. At least, not yet.

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NOVEMBER 16, 2022

the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Economic headwinds have been steadily mounting, and finally led to weakening demand for new projects,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7,

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2025

Prior to joining Raymond James, Sunaina founded Cebile Capital , which was acquired by Raymond James in 2021. Additionally, Sunaina serves as Chairman of the Board of Directors of SFC Energy AG and on the boards of the Stanford Institution for Economic Policy Research and the Stanford LEAD Council.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 30, 2023

In 2020, all you had to do was Hodl Meme stocks; In 2021, it was day trade your way to wealth; before that, just be a Crypto bro, or you can “ Have fun being poor !” Remember the Dunning Kruger couple ( video ) we discussed in September 2021 ? 2 * sigh * A few economic truisms: Anything worthwhile requires time and effort.

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JANUARY 6, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 6.74 Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9 The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.5%.

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Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

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FEBRUARY 3, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 7.27 Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 With revisions: The 4.81 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% in December.

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Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

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DECEMBER 10, 2022

The key economic reports this week are November CPI and Retail Sales. The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 50 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate. -- Monday, December 13th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, December 14th -- 6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November.

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Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 130

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JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. Prior to the pandemic, economic activity was mostly in the 2% range since 2010.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. If that sounds somewhat counterintuitive, allow me to explain my thought process by looking at five major economic sectors: 1. How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

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Economy Economics Media Retirement 299

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NOVEMBER 30, 2024

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book , an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. -- Thursday, December 5th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. The consensus is for 55.5,

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Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

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JANUARY 4, 2025

Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit and November Job Openings. -- Monday, January 6th -- No major economic releases scheduled. -- Tuesday, January 7th -- 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. This graph shows the U.S.

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Government Economics 147

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. Real Wages (November 22, 2021). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021).

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Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

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FEBRUARY 7, 2024

monthly change from December 2021 to January 2022. With the volatility we saw last year, it was a welcome sign for the industry to have a calmer month,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry Insights for Cox Automotive. “We The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) remained at 204.0 but down 9.2%

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The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. In other words, the Great Resignation was mostly in 2021, but the after-effects are still being felt today even after Quit rates normalized.

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NOVEMBER 8, 2022

On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 28% higher than in October 2021, the commercial component was up 29%, and institutional planning was 25% higher.

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Healthcare Education Planning Numbers 313

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. Wages in America (2013-2021). We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. The Fred Blog, December 5, 2022.

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Distribution Accounting Economics 312

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. In fact, it felt horrible.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021). Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022).

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

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Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

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JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in December 2021. Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question). 2021 62.0% in December, down 0.4 2009 64.6% -1.2 2016 62.7%

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Economics Sales Investing Investments 242

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

ft.com) The most active growth stage investors of 2021-22 have pulled WAY back. bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264

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NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Mortgage originations modestly declined to $386 billion in Q3 2023 and are well below the robust quarterly origination volumes observed between 2020 and 2021. Other balances, which include retail cards and other consumer loans, increased by $2 billion. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. There is much more in the report.

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Retail Banking Accounting Economics 314

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

In 2021, it shot up to 9.5%. Gabija Zemaityte and Danny Walker Bank Underground, 16 November 2023 Banana Ships And The Hidden Fees Of Ship Cargo GCaptain, July 3, 2022 Prices, Profits, and Power: An Analysis of 2021 Firm-Level Markups Mike Konczal Niko Lusiani Roosevelt Institute June 2022 Why Is Inflation So Sticky? It was about 5.5%

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Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

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NOVEMBER 9, 2022

Beginning in June and continuing through today, we have seen a moderation in housing demand caused by significant increases in mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty.” In general, cancellation rates doubled or tripled in the most recent quarter compared to 2021. There is much more in the article.

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Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 245