The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. If that sounds somewhat counterintuitive, allow me to explain my thought process by looking at five major economic sectors: 1. How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Economy 299

Economy Economics Media Retirement 299

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

ft.com) The most active growth stage investors of 2021-22 have pulled WAY back. bloomberg.com) Ten economic questions for 2024 including 'How much will wages increase in 2024?' (ofdollarsanddata.com) It's not news that the stock market goes up most years. wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 265

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 265

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. Real Wages (November 22, 2021). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021).

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. In other words, the Great Resignation was mostly in 2021, but the after-effects are still being felt today even after Quit rates normalized.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 5, 2022

I was working on a longer piece about which economic strata the Fed has the greatest impact on (its more complicated than you might think) when Invictus DM’d me this amazing FRED chart. Wages in America (2013-2021). We looked at this idea earlier this year , but it’s worth revisiting. The Fred Blog, December 5, 2022.

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Distribution Accounting Economics 312

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021). Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. The following year similarly saw a substantial 28% rally.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 23, 2023

” That poor belief system has disadvantaged America — it has made us economically weaker, prevented the country from performing basic maintenance on its infrastructure, and generally made it a harsher place to live. Note that we undertook much of the work anyway (airports, electrical grid, roads, etc.),

Government 334

Government Economics Taxes Budgeting 334

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

In 2021, it shot up to 9.5%. Gabija Zemaityte and Danny Walker Bank Underground, 16 November 2023 Banana Ships And The Hidden Fees Of Ship Cargo GCaptain, July 3, 2022 Prices, Profits, and Power: An Analysis of 2021 Firm-Level Markups Mike Konczal Niko Lusiani Roosevelt Institute June 2022 Why Is Inflation So Sticky? It was about 5.5%

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. a year ago (October 2021). a year ago (October 2021). Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Near 50 Year Low The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7%

Economics 122

Economics 122

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

What it does reveal is that the Federal Reserve is not current with the latest research on 1) What drives inflation; 2) The fallibility of surveys and polling data; 3) An updated understanding of behavioral economics and how human decision-making works.

Economy 306

Economy Economics Investing Investments 306

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

Economics 90

Economics Economy Sales Commission 90

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

From there, we have several articles on Mergers & Acquisition (M&A) trends: M&A activity so far in 2022 is set to exceed 2021’s record pace despite economic headwinds, meaning there could simply be a ‘new normal’ of higher activity regardless of the economic environment.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 245

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. During the same period of time, the S&P 500 rose 67.9% (2020) and 28.7% (2021). 2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,729,000. percent) below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. percent)* above the November 2021 rate of 1,406,000. Lumber futures courtesy of Trading Economics. This is 11.2 percent below the revised October rate of 1,512,000 and is 22.4 percent (±12.3 percent (±13.4 percent (±11.3

Taxes 227

Taxes Numbers Economics 227

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 10, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn : Rapid rate increases provide less time for central bankers to study their economic effects ( Wall Street Journal ). They should be. ( Variety ).

Economics 292

Economics Management Accounting Portfolio 292

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. Price appreciation will decrease from the unsustainable 2021 pace but seems likely to still be in the mid-to-high single digit range in 2022." compared to the same period in 2021.

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 306

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2023

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I A brief excerpt: Pandemic economic outcomes were frequently largely unexpected. For example, early in the pandemic, there was a shortage of toilet paper.

Economics 98

Economics Accounting Marketing Marketing 98

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

History suggests that the Fed’s recognition of key market and economic indicators also is on an excessive lag. Then again in the 2020s, they remained on emergency footing post-Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. During the same period of time, the S&P 500 rose 67.9% (2020) and 28.7% (2021).

Economics 312

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 312

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. I don’t know if this explains all of the mismatch between actual economic conditions and sentiment, but perhaps it explains some… Previously : What Is the Consumer Doing…? Others are positive but invisible.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Ask any investor what their tolerance for risk is in the fourth quarter of 2021 and you will hear a very different answer than asking that same question of that same investor in the second quarter of 2022. I hope to address this in greater detail in the coming weeks… Previously : How Overrated is Sentiment in Economics?

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

“With over 71% of S&P 500 companies finished reporting revenues and earnings for Q2-2021, the revenue and earnings surprises are at their lowest levels since the pandemic recovery began. Revenues are beating the consensus forecast by 2.5%, and earnings have exceeded estimates by 5.6%.” – Ed Yardeni. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Essentially, he was referring to the entire field of behavioral economics. The 10-year returns for equities (2012-2021) when the SPX generated 16.6% Previously: Simple, But Hard (January 30, 2023) Tax Alpha (April 14, 2022) Accessing Losses via Direct Indexing (April 14, 2021) Behavioral Finance _ 1.

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Economics 246

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

New county level population growth data reveal that 2021 marked a clear break from past trends, not a continuation of them. Economic Innovation Group ). • On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

Communication 298

Communication Startup Management Economics 298

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 28, 2022

From there, we have several articles on practice management: A new report shows that RIA profitability and AUM soared in 2021, buoyed by a strong stock market and new client growth. The key considerations for advisors considering terminating a forgivable note early.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Valuation Economics 246

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation Pinched Pockets. 1] [link]. [2] 2] [link]. [3]

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

The Big Picture

APRIL 24, 2023

They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. ” A Secular Bull Market is an extended period of time (10-20 years) driven by broad economic shifts that create an environment conducive to increasing corporate revenue and earnings.

Economics 299

Economics Portfolio Valuation Marketing 299

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. -- Monday, December 19th -- 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, unchanged from 33.

Sales 97

Sales Manufacturing Economics Numbers 97

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." months in November 2021. from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

The Big Picture

JULY 22, 2022

What’s Going On…With Jobs The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don’t favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy. Problem is, they’ve forgotten what that feels like. Wall Street Journal ).

Engineering 278

Engineering Management Economy Economics 278

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 28, 2022

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • For Diving FAANG Stocks, It’s the End of an Era : The five FAANG stocks are on track for their worst simultaneous losses ever, a far cry from their late-2021 highs. The latest batch of earnings results has revealed their changing fortunes and, in some cases, dragged them lower for the year.

Startup 277

Startup Banking Food Assets 277

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351