The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021).

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. 2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

What it does reveal is that the Federal Reserve is not current with the latest research on 1) What drives inflation; 2) The fallibility of surveys and polling data; 3) An updated understanding of behavioral economics and how human decision-making works.

Economy 306

Economy Economics Investing Investments 306

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years. But for context, the Nasdaq 100 is also flat since its November 2021 peak, and up a mere 3.1%

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). economy will likely perform in 2024, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 with the pandemic - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2024?

Economics 90

Economics Economy Sales Commission 90

The Big Picture

AUGUST 4, 2022

“With over 71% of S&P 500 companies finished reporting revenues and earnings for Q2-2021, the revenue and earnings surprises are at their lowest levels since the pandemic recovery began. It appears investors are relying on earnings to stay robust even if the economy suffers a short, shallow recession. Revenues , too).

Economics 264

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 264

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. 4 Consider : We had 2% inflation expectations the entire post-GFC era.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

JANUARY 31, 2024

Bad things happen when the economy contracts. As it turns out, there are ways investors can tell if an economic contraction is really coming. Tell us what happens to the economy during a recession. Claudia Sahm : A recession is a broad-based contraction in economic activity. There still has been no recession.

Economy 298

Economy Economics Consulting Marketing 298

The Big Picture

JULY 22, 2022

What’s Going On…With Jobs The June jobs report was cheered by economic bulls given its strength in level terms, but rates of change among leading indicators don’t favor a soft-landing outcome for the economy. Problem is, they’ve forgotten what that feels like. Wall Street Journal ). I’d rather watch the sunset!’:

Engineering 278

Engineering Management Economy Economics 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Q4-over-Q4 in 2023. 2008 0.1% -2.5%

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investing 111

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. compared to the same period in 2021.

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. Inflation Pinched Pockets. 1] [link]. [2] 2] [link]. [3]

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." months in November 2021. from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Historical impact of pandemics on the economy Historically, health pandemics have caused significant shocks to the U.S. Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. percent in mid-2021. What is transitory inflation?

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 27, 2023

Analysis: Acceleration in consumer inflation increases the odds of further Fed action Robust spending and income for January was in line with other strong economic data for the month, showing renewed economic vigor despite the Fed’s efforts to cool inflationary conditions. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) climbed by 1.8

Economics 98

Economics Sales Manufacturing Economy 98

Nationwide Financial

MARCH 22, 2023

Whether the Fed raises rate or holds steady on Wednesday, we see the unfortunate banking developments and ensuing tightening of lending standards as reinforcing our view that the economy is headed for a moderate recession in the second half of the 2023. This should drive economic growth at around an annualized 2.5-3.0

Economics 98

Economics Banking Sales Retail 98

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 15, 2023

theatlantic.com) The IRS is still working through 2021 paper returns. wsj.com) Has economics run out of big ideas? awealthofcommonsense.com) The labor economy is already cooling off. bloomberg.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. nytimes.com) Why the labor economy is still so tight. nytimes.com).

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Economy Retail Economics 130

The Big Picture

JULY 18, 2022

Let’s start with how we got here: A massive global pandemic led to a shutdown of the world’s economy. — avoided a catastrophic depression but supercharged the economy. Enormous government response — most notably $5 trillion in fiscal stimulus from the U.S.

Economy 278

Economy Marketing Marketing Clients 278

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 25, 2022

” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices. Ben Carlson, October 21, 2022).

Government 290

Government Assets Retail Manufacturing 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs added in 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2022. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 94

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 94

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession.

Economy 80

Economy Sales Economics Investing 80

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 4, 2022

(on.ft.com) 2022 ETF launches are lagging behind 2021's pace. morningstar.com) Economics The economics profession has a sexual harassment problem. morningstar.com) Economics The economics profession has a sexual harassment problem. statnews.com) Economy The November NFP shows a slowing, but still growing, economy.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Startup Economics Economy 130

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 5, 2024

The resulting impact on CRE land and liabilities is a risk factor for the banking sector, and potentially a threat to the broader economic system. In prior circumstances, the biggest threat was the state of the economy. So far, these have achieved only mixed success.

Retail 195

Retail Economics Distribution Economy 195

Discipline Funds

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Let’s look at the scorecard: Bitcoin – it boomed in 2020 well in advance of the big inflation spike in 2021 & 2022 and weirdly busted as inflation reared its ugly head. TIPS – Like most bonds, TIPS surged in 2020 & 2021 and then got clobbered when inflation spiked. 3) The “This is Fine” Economy.

Economy 89

Economy Retail Government Banking 89

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And what you saw in 2021 and 2022 is transitory inflation that got us to 9 percent on CPI. Oh my god, the economy’s falling apart, people are losing their jobs, we’ve got to start to stimulate the economy, we have to stop a recession.” Now, I’m fond of saying the term two things could be true at once.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

JANUARY 30, 2024

One definition , according to a speech delivered by Tom Barkin, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, is “where inflation completes its journey back to normal levels while the economy stays healthy”. One might then wonder 1) what are normal inflation levels and 2) what defines a healthy economy. during this period.

Economy 75

Economy Financial Advisor Banking Economics 75

The Irrelevant Investor

APRIL 13, 2024

Articles Instead of viewing behavioral economics as a window, we should regard it as a mirror. (By By Ben Carlson) Podcasts The movie. The post These Are the Goods appeared first on The Irrelevant Investor.

Economy 97

Economy Economics Planning 97

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). See: Better Measure of Output: GDP or GDI?

Sales 145

Sales Economy Economics Investing 145

Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago. jump in February.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Sales Food 52

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels.

Economics 75

Economics Sales Economy Food 75