Mish Talk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,729,000. percent) below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. percent)* above the November 2021 rate of 1,406,000. Unadjusted Numbers Year-Over-Year Starts: Down 16.4 percent Those numbers remove supply constraints in both materials and labor. This is 11.2 percent (±12.3

Taxes 227

Taxes Numbers Economics 227

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint. We have discussed in the past how this is primarily a supply issue.

Economics 321

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 321

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 28, 2022

From there, we have several articles on practice management: A new report shows that RIA profitability and AUM soared in 2021, buoyed by a strong stock market and new client growth. The key considerations for advisors considering terminating a forgivable note early.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Valuation Economics 246

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Also, given you have to turn DRIP on in most brokerage accounts, I wonder what percentage of investors reinvest as well (have looked but can’t seem to find this number anywhere).” Essentially, he was referring to the entire field of behavioral economics. The 10-year returns for equities (2012-2021) when the SPX generated 16.6%

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Economics 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Q&A What's Going On? But hooray!

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

From there, we have several articles on Mergers & Acquisition (M&A) trends: M&A activity so far in 2022 is set to exceed 2021’s record pace despite economic headwinds, meaning there could simply be a ‘new normal’ of higher activity regardless of the economic environment.

Financial Planner 179

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 179

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. Price appreciation will decrease from the unsustainable 2021 pace but seems likely to still be in the mid-to-high single digit range in 2022." compared to the same period in 2021.

Economics 114

Economics Sales Economy Banking 114

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." months in November 2021. from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Economy 167

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. And what you saw in 2021 and 2022 is transitory inflation that got us to 9 percent on CPI. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. 1] However, in 2022, this number spiked to 9.1% 1] [link].

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 17, 2022

The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. -- Monday, December 19th -- 10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 33, unchanged from 33.

Sales 97

Sales Manufacturing Economics Numbers 97

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. percent) below the October 2021 rate of 1,563,000. percent)* above the October 2021 rate of 1,256,000. The SAAR numbers have a way of making numbers look much bigger than they are. percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent (±12.7

Numbers 174

Numbers Economics 174

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 6.74 The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. million, changed little in December. in the previous month.

Retail 145

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 7.27 The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. With revisions: The 4.81 million, was little changed in January.

Numbers 145

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 145

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 17, 2023

In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. The 12-month change in the CPI fell for a sixth straight month and is now at its lowest level since October 2021.

Numbers 52

Numbers Economics Retail Sales 52

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

percent)* below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000. But today we see the number is 661,000. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions. In economic upturns, the Census Department understates sales. percent (±20.8

Sales 165

Sales Economics Numbers 165

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

The number of LinkedIn posts grew 41% from 2021 to 2023. Golf Digest ) Be sure to check out our Masters in Business with Gary Cohn , Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and Director of the National Economic Council from 2017-2018; he was President and Chief Operating Officer of The Goldman Sachs Group from 2006-2016.

Ethics 162

Ethics Economics Medical Numbers 162

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. Moreover, there is little to no warning for consumers, businesses, or governments that an extreme shock will occur, making for a sharp shift in overall economic conditions.

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 28% higher than in October 2021, the commercial component was up 29%, and institutional planning was 25% higher.

Healthcare 125

Healthcare Education Planning Economics 125

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Mainstream media follows the baseline number, not what matters most. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.8 But today we see the number is 661,000.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Economics Media 130

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2023

The platform had punched above its weight in pure user numbers thanks to an unrivaled ability to both distribute real-time information and make expertise available. In 2021, banks tried to kill remote work. Wall Street Journal ) see also Is Coffee Bringing People Back to the Office? Now, remote work is trying to kill banks.

Banking 162

Banking Math Distribution Investment Advisor 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 75

Economics Sales Economy Food 75

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 12, 2022

Global Leaders Investment Letter: December 2021. Intrinsic motivation appears to emanate from a number of fundamental drivers which are important both individually and within a team. We seek competitively advantaged companies as long-term protection of our businesses’ economics given our desire for longevity of return on capital.

Investing 52

Investing Investments Clients Economics 52

Gen Y Planning

MARCH 1, 2022

This year, your 2021 taxes are due on April 18th, 2022. Here are the numbers to know. . 2021 Standard Deduction: Single, $12,550. You’ll use the 2021 numbers for your return this April. But the 2022 numbers are as follows. But don’t let this impending annual chore dull your spring fever. Let’s take a look.

Taxes 52

Taxes Government Accounting Healthcare 52

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in December 2021, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. in December 2021, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. by 2031 due to demographics.

Economics 115

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 115

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

million jobs added in 2023 was the 17th best year for job growth in US history (out of 84 years) following the two best years on record (2021 and 2022). The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. million, changed little.

Numbers 87

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 87

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 1, 2021

Global Leaders Investment Letter: January 2021 jharrison Fri, 01/01/2021 - 08:53 Just want the PDF? When does crowd psychology take hope for economic return beyond what valuation can support? Or is it a convenient way to measure the relative economic value created between our starting and end points? What is Space?

Investing 52

Investing Investments Valuation Economics 52

Walkner Condon Financial Advisors

AUGUST 5, 2022

If we think back to the outset of 2021 – which feels more like 10 years ago than a year and a half – it was easy to overlook inflation, while we focused on rolling out COVID-19 vaccines and the start of a new presidency. By the time June 2021 rolled around, that was up to 3%. And by the end of 2021, it was at 4.1%. Back in Dec.

Certified Financial Planner 98

Certified Financial Planner Financial Advisor Financial Planner Fee Only 98

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2024

This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 96

Economics Clients Investments Investing 96

Nationwide Financial

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Among investors, only 39% said their 12-month outlook was optimistic, a drop of 10 percentage points from the 2021 survey. In 2021, 63% of FPs were optimistic in their 12-month outlook. In 2022, that number dropped 15 percentage points to 48%. Economic woes weigh on Americans. Mark Hackett, Chief of Investment Research.

Financial Planning 90

Financial Planning Retirement Clients Planning 90

Park Place Financial

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. million per person in 2021 to $12.06

Estate Planning 52

Estate Planning Economics Planning Financial Planner 52

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 31, 2024

There are currently more than 53 million unpaid family caregivers in the US, providing an economic value of more than $470 billion. She may not be able to remain in the workforce for an adequate number of years to help fund her own retirement, and caregivers may be called upon to help pay for medical supplies or food.

Planning 142

Planning Insurance Retirement Medical 142

Nationwide Financial

JUNE 13, 2023

Coming off the blowout jobs report and the debt ceiling agreement, last week was a slower week for economic data. Given the Fed’s guidance, we expect them to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, but retain a hawkish bias which opens the door to a July rate hike if economic activity and namely inflation do not cool sufficiently.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 145

Sales Economy Economics Investing 145