Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. On a year-over-year basis, the DMI was 28% higher than in October 2021, the commercial component was up 29%, and institutional planning was 25% higher.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Numbers 313

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

The four largest drops occurred during distinct periods of economic distress: 1990 (recession), 2006-09 (GFC), 2020 (pandemic/recession), and today (FOMC 300 bp rate hike). Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021). Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Note that inventory is up from the record low for the same week in 2021, but still well below normal levels. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. I followed up with a brief post on each question. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. November 22, 2009). Black Friday #Fails.

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

From there, we have several articles on Mergers & Acquisition (M&A) trends: M&A activity so far in 2022 is set to exceed 2021’s record pace despite economic headwinds, meaning there could simply be a ‘new normal’ of higher activity regardless of the economic environment.

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 245

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED.

Distribution 306

Distribution Assets Numbers Economics 306

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. in December 2021, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. in December 2021, but still below the pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. by 2031 due to demographics.

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,729,000. percent) below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. percent)* above the November 2021 rate of 1,406,000. Unadjusted Numbers Year-Over-Year Starts: Down 16.4 percent Those numbers remove supply constraints in both materials and labor. This is 11.2 percent (±12.3

Taxes 227

Taxes Numbers Economics 227

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model. Otherwise, they are going to unnecessarily cause economic damage in their belated attempts to lower inflation. Powell & Co.’s

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Calculated Risk

APRIL 24, 2024

This marked the 14th consecutive month of declining billings at firms as inflation, supply chain issues, and other economic challenges continue to affect business. While inquiries into new projects have continued to grow during that period, it has been at a slower pace than in 2021 and 2022. Click on graph for larger image.

Economics 240

Economics Clients Investing Investments 240

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2024

million jobs added in 2023 was the 17th best year for job growth in US history (out of 84 years) following the two best years on record (2021 and 2022). The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and November and December payrolls were revised up by 126,000 combined. million, changed little.

Numbers 219

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 219

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Also, there are two measures of economic growth - Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) produces two measures of national output which, in theory, should be equivalent. For a discussion of recessions, see NBER's What is a recession? 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint. We have discussed in the past how this is primarily a supply issue.

Budgeting 321

Budgeting Economics Sales Media 321

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II. Two key leading economic indicators are suggesting a recession this year. Then new home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2021, but that was partly due to the huge surge in sales during the pandemic. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 28, 2022

From there, we have several articles on practice management: A new report shows that RIA profitability and AUM soared in 2021, buoyed by a strong stock market and new client growth. The key considerations for advisors considering terminating a forgivable note early.

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Valuation Management 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

"Pending home sales recorded the second-lowest monthly reading in 20 years as interest rates, which climbed at one of the fastest paces on record this year, drastically cut into the number of contract signings to buy a home," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. Falling home sales and construction have hurt broader economic activity."

Sales 189

Sales Numbers Economics 189

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2023

Also, given you have to turn DRIP on in most brokerage accounts, I wonder what percentage of investors reinvest as well (have looked but can’t seem to find this number anywhere).” Essentially, he was referring to the entire field of behavioral economics. The 10-year returns for equities (2012-2021) when the SPX generated 16.6%

Assets 246

Assets Accounting Taxes Numbers 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Nonetheless, economic cheerleaders tout the monthly data even when the household survey shows major discrepancies. Fall & Winter Double Issue With that background please consider the Philadelphia Fed Fall & Economic Insights Winter Double Issue for 2022 Q3 and Q4, emphasis mine. Q&A What's Going On? But hooray!

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 12, 2022

From there, we have several articles on Mergers & Acquisition (M&A) trends: M&A activity so far in 2022 is set to exceed 2021’s record pace despite economic headwinds, meaning there could simply be a ‘new normal’ of higher activity regardless of the economic environment.

Financial Planner 179

Financial Planner Retirement Healthcare Numbers 179

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. million jobs added in 2021. Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. million jobs in 2022.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Note: The pandemic has distorted the economic data, and as I've noted many times, we can't be a slave to any model. Another exception was in late 2021 - we saw a significant YoY decline in new home sales related to the pandemic and the surge in new home sales in the second half of 2020. 2) Significant policy error.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 31, 2024

The number of job openings (black) were down 10% year-over-year and Quits were down 12% year-over-year. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Jobs openings decreased in June to 8.18 million from 8.23 million in May. There were 114,000 jobs added in July, and the unemployment rate was at 4.3%.

Manufacturing 189

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 189

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

in November "In essence, the residential real estate market was frozen in November, resembling the sales activity seen during the COVID-19 economic lockdowns in 2020, " said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun." months in November 2021. from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. Unsold inventory sits at a 3.3-month

Sales 167

Sales Economics Retail Accounting 167

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 9, 2023

The 2022 economic climate has been bumpy for most and, in some cases, even bumpier for retirees. Americans and the world at large dealt with the economic ramifications of the Russia-Ukraine war, post-pandemic industrial effects, and rising inflation and interest rates. 1] However, in 2022, this number spiked to 9.1% 1] [link].

Accounting 97

Accounting Retirement Economics Financial Planning 97

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000. percent) below the October 2021 rate of 1,563,000. percent)* above the October 2021 rate of 1,256,000. The SAAR numbers have a way of making numbers look much bigger than they are. percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent (±12.7

Numbers 174

Numbers Economics 174

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. And what you saw in 2021 and 2022 is transitory inflation that got us to 9 percent on CPI. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 17, 2023

In other economic news, the NFIB small business survey showed decreasing optimism among small business owners, many of whom have a negative outlook on the economy and expected sales for 2023. The 12-month change in the CPI fell for a sixth straight month and is now at its lowest level since October 2021.

Numbers 52

Numbers Economics Retail Sales 52

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 30, 2023

Special Note on Government Shutdown : If the Republicans shut down the government again, then some economic releases will be delayed. The number of job openings (yellow) were down 22% year-over-year. This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. The impacted releases are highlighted in RED. million from 9.17

Government 189

Government Sales Manufacturing Numbers 189

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

However, this shouldn’t be a big surprise because we knew Hurricanes Milton and Helene would weigh on the numbers. September payrolls were revised down by 31,000 to +223,000 jobs, and August was revised down by 81,000 to +78,000 (the first sub-100,000 monthly payroll number since December 2020). But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

percent)* below the October 2021 estimate of 671,000. But today we see the number is 661,000. In declining sales environments and economic downturns (now), the Census Department dramatically overstates sales, even if we ignore revisions. In economic upturns, the Census Department understates sales. percent (±20.8

Sales 165

Sales Economics Numbers 165

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 24, 2023

Flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968 were followed by economic downturns while the 1918 Spanish flu was extremely disruptive to the entire society at the time. Moreover, there is little to no warning for consumers, businesses, or governments that an extreme shock will occur, making for a sharp shift in overall economic conditions.

Economy 119

Economy Economics Government Transportation 119

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Mainstream media follows the baseline number, not what matters most. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, a decrease in the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth from 4.8 But today we see the number is 661,000.

Sales 130

Sales Numbers Economics Government 130

The Big Picture

MARCH 31, 2023

The platform had punched above its weight in pure user numbers thanks to an unrivaled ability to both distribute real-time information and make expertise available. In 2021, banks tried to kill remote work. Wall Street Journal ) see also Is Coffee Bringing People Back to the Office? Now, remote work is trying to kill banks.

Banking 162

Banking Math Distribution Investment Advisor 162

Brown Advisory

JANUARY 12, 2022

Global Leaders Investment Letter: December 2021. Intrinsic motivation appears to emanate from a number of fundamental drivers which are important both individually and within a team. We seek competitively advantaged companies as long-term protection of our businesses’ economics given our desire for longevity of return on capital.

Investments 52

Investments Investing Clients Numbers 52