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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Our planet has done this about 4.54

Economy 328
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How Many Bear Markets Have You Lived Through?

The Big Picture

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. My economic future was uncertain, but I felt confident I could make a go of it. From a purely economic perspective, these first few crashes were meaningless. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336
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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. The latest plot line was simply the animal spirits have been awoken and they have run amok and that’s how we have avoided an economic contraction. The following year similarly saw a substantial 28% rally.

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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. 2020s : Remained on emergency footing post Covid, despite broad evidence of economic recovery. During the same period of time, the S&P 500 rose 67.9% (2020) and 28.7% (2021).

Banking 336
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Fed’s Inflation Fight Has Some Economists Fearing an Unnecessarily Deep Downturn : Rapid rate increases provide less time for central bankers to study their economic effects ( Wall Street Journal ). Here’s how to clean up your portfolio without feeling ashamed. Wall Street Journal ). •

Economics 292
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When, Where, and for How Long

The Big Picture

They all have different sensitivities to economic factors like trade, inflation, commodities, and growth. Within the equity portion of your portfolios, they can provide some measure of diversification. Oversimplifying them into narratives or relying on context-free myths will not serve your portfolio well.

Economics 299
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What Else Might be Driving Sentiment?

The Big Picture

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351