The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. Shipping : The pandemic lockdown forced the economy to pivot from services to goods; demand soared as people were stuck living – and working – at home. Why Aren’t There Enough Workers? December 9, 2022).

Economy 299

Economy Economics Media Retirement 299

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm : Consider how many jobs remain unfilled today and you have a sense of so many other issues in this economy: Supply chain snarlls, leading to goods shortages, leading to inflation, etc. Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021). bottoming in June 1953 at 2.5%. Any suggestions?

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

This often prevents us from understanding the long term life cycles of the economy, markets and companies. Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021). Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021). How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021). Change is Constant : It is east to miss incremental shifts over time.

Economy 364

Economy Marketing Marketing 364

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 145

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 145

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 1, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 144

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 144

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 138

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 138

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 8, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 140

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 140

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 137

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 137

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. But also look at the year-over-year change in the Quits Rate: It spiked in percentage terms to all-time highs in early 2021, before slowly easing back towards (more or less) flat to 2019 over the ensuing 12 months. Wages in America.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. Or will the economy lose jobs? This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. This is down from 4.8

Economy 119

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 119

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

But the relationship does not hold up well once we begin looking at the specific sectors of the economy where price increases are slowing, stopping, or falling. CPI inflation has been coming down because the national economy has reopened, and our buying behaviors are normalizing. ~~~. Why Aren’t There Enough Workers? December 9, 2022).

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2022

But that does not mean the Fed’s actions won’t have long-term consequences for the economy. In January 2021, those mortgages were as low as 2.65%; today they are over 7%. That was evident in 2021 (perhaps even late 2020). How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021). worth appreciably more.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

2020: Covid : With the economy closed, people locked down, and local businesses crashing, many were expecting a replay of the previous market crash. 2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. This was a money-losing set of narratives.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 119

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 119

The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2022

When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. The alternate periods of time are Secular Bear Markets: The economy is fraught with weakness, poor consumer spending, and negative job growth.

Economy 328

Economy Marketing Marketing Economics 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years. But for context, the Nasdaq 100 is also flat since its November 2021 peak, and up a mere 3.1%

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

JULY 5, 2023

As the FRED chart below shows, consumers were quite sanguine about inflation at the beginning of its huge run-up in 2021; they were panicked about inflation at the peak, just as it was beginning its collapse. And while people’s expectations can factor into inflation, it is but one element out of many, and one that is easily changed.

Economy 306

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 306

The Big Picture

MAY 10, 2023

To get back to 2% inflation target, the economy would need some combination of ZIRP, or higher unemployment, or more than a mild recession. I expect this will continue to fall over the next few months and is likely to have a 3 handle before Christmas, maybe even Halloween. The old regime of a 2% inflation target is dead.

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Government Economy 304

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I am not sure if they quite recognize the potential damage they are doing to the economy. Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC).

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

in 2022 vs. 2021. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy. nytimes.com) Economy Where various measures of the jobs market stand. (finance.yahoo.com) Fewer ETFs launched in the U.S. etf.com) Global U.S. companies are shifting production from China to Mexico.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2024

And THAT is what led to the giant inflation spike of 2021 and 22. So, the Fed needs to have a sense of where things are headed with inflation — because rates are a tool that takes a little bit for it to work its way through the economy. It was a kind of slow burn on the economy. On its way up to just about 9%.

Economy 279

Economy Communication Food Consulting 279

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Perhaps we should consider another issue that tends to get too little ink: Workers exiting sectors of the service industry permanently. Perhaps a few anecdotes 1 might illuminate this: We tend to cook during the week and go out to eat on weekends.

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Retail Food Manufacturing Economy 320

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

to blame, but I want to suggest that the 2021-22 Inflation surge and resulting higher prices were the cost of avoiding a different fate. Oh, and the economy would have hurtled into the worst depression since the Great Depression of 1929. The public wants someone ( anyone !) Total US death count: 10 or 20 million.

Government 306

Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 17, 2023

Markets European natural gas prices are back down to Q4 2021 levels. nytimes.com) Economy Disinflation isn't moving in a straight line. ft.com) Zero day options are growing in popularity. marketwatch.com) Strategy Copycat investing is blind alley. rationalwalk.com) Share buybacks aren't good or bad, they just are.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Financial Advising Media 245

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 106

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 106

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 105

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 105

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. This has enormous ramifications for everything from our portfolios, policies and politics… See also , Failures’ Fallout (Mehlman, August 21, 2021) Teens Spend Average of 4.8

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 111

Economy Sales Economics Investments 111

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 97

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 97

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 98

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 98

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 21, 2022

Markets are like this much of the time: The economy has been doing okay, earnings are pretty good, inflation is modest, the overall trend has been upwards. One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). If you were going away for the weekend, you would have a pretty good idea of what assortment of clothes to pack for that trip. Countertrend?

Budgeting 306

Budgeting Government Marketing Marketing 306

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246