Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Then new home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2021, but that was partly due to the huge surge in sales during the pandemic. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million in 2021 (the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. Or will the economy lose jobs? This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? million jobs in 2023. This is down from 4.8

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

railroads averaged 499,331 per week in October 2023, the most for any month since June 2021 — a span of 28 months. Part of the increase relates to intermodal seasonality and concerns over Panama Canal capacity, but part also reflects an economy that remains resilient. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: Total originated carloads on U.S.

Economy 189

Economy Numbers 189

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably under 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? 2) Employment: Through November 2022, the economy added 4.3

Economics 347

Economics Economy Sales Commission 347

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor. It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy. It has aa much smaller impact on the local economy.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

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NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. And second, should we ignore changes that have taken place over that 15-year period?

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investing Investments 347

Calculated Risk

JULY 31, 2022

The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 2.66%, likely due to the weaker economy. Last year, in July 2021, 30-year mortgage rates average 2.87% according to the Freddie Mac PMMS. Here is a graph from Mortgagenewsdaily.com that shows the 30-year mortgage rate since 2017.

Economy 359

Economy 359

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs added in 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs? I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends).

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2022

from June 2021 , marking the 125th consecutive month of year-over-year increases. Though annual appreciation was still strong, it slowed from the previous month for the second consecutive month, reflecting reduced buyer demand in part due to higher mortgage rates and worries about a slowing economy. Nationwide, home prices grew by 18.3%

Economy 321

Economy Sales Marketing Marketing 321

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

How much will the economy grow in 2024? A year ago, I argued that "the economy will avoid recession" in 2023, even though some key indicators suggested a possible recession, the FOMC was forecasting an employment recession, and many Wall Street analysts were forecasting an economic recession. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 200

Economy Sales Economics Investing 200

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

Real Wages (November 22, 2021). One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021). Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021). The Great Reset (June 2, 2021). But rational people can reasonably disagree on anything market-related — after all, someone has to be on the other side of your trade.

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. Shipping : The pandemic lockdown forced the economy to pivot from services to goods; demand soared as people were stuck living – and working – at home. Why Aren’t There Enough Workers? December 9, 2022).

Economy 299

Economy Economics Media Retirement 299

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm : Consider how many jobs remain unfilled today and you have a sense of so many other issues in this economy: Supply chain snarlls, leading to goods shortages, leading to inflation, etc. Elvis (Your Waiter) Has Left the Building (July 9, 2021). bottoming in June 1953 at 2.5%. Any suggestions?

Economy 331

Economy Insurance Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

This often prevents us from understanding the long term life cycles of the economy, markets and companies. Gradually, Then Suddenly (October 1, 2021). Why the Apple Store Will Fail (May 20, 2021). How News Looks When Its Old (October 29, 2021). Change is Constant : It is east to miss incremental shifts over time.

Economy 364

Economy Marketing Marketing 364

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). And this is a positive for the economy.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 10, 2022

If you were expecting August rail traffic to provide a definitive statement regarding the state of the economy, well, get used to disappointment. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022: U.S. That’s the best weekly average for any month since May 2021 and up 2.3% over August 2021. from August 2021. from August 2021.

Economy 237

Economy 237

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 7, 2022

As such, it doesn’t provide definitive evidence regarding the state of the overall economy. Carloads in 2020, 2021 and 2022: In July 2022, U.S. railroads originated 906,903 total carloads — up 0.2% (2,213 carloads) over July 2021. intermodal in 2020, 2021 and 2022: (using intermodal or shipping containers): U.S

Economy 245

Economy 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 26, 2023

(ft.com) The most active growth stage investors of 2021-22 have pulled WAY back. nytimes.com) Economy Case-Shiller showed a 4.8% calculatedriskblog.com) What if the economy in 2024 was just 'normal'? news.crunchbase.com) Global Is China's stock market finally cheap enough for another look? wsj.com) Japan has a trucking problem.

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Economy 264