Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 23rd.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

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OCTOBER 31, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 30th.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

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AUGUST 29, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 28th.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 13th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

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OCTOBER 17, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 15th.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

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DECEMBER 26, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 25th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 4th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 8th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of August 14th.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 27th.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

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JULY 25, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of July 24th.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

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NOVEMBER 3, 2023

railroads averaged 499,331 per week in October 2023, the most for any month since June 2021 — a span of 28 months. Part of the increase relates to intermodal seasonality and concerns over Panama Canal capacity, but part also reflects an economy that remains resilient. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: Total originated carloads on U.S.

Economy 189

Economy Numbers 189

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DECEMBER 19, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 18th.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

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DECEMBER 12, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of December 11th.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

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NOVEMBER 21, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of November 20th.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs added in 2021. Or will the economy lose jobs? Job losses in construction haven't started yet because a record number of housing units are under construction. If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023.

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of October 2nd.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. Previously : How Everybody Miscalculated Housing Demand (July 29, 2021).

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

There will be plenty of "gray hairs" walking around in 2030, but the key for the economy is the population in the prime working age group is now increasing. And below is a table showing the ten most common ages in 2010, 2021, and 2030 (projections are from the Census Bureau, 2017 ). And this is a positive for the economy.

Economy 363

Economy Numbers 363

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. This attests to the robustness of the labor economy, recession or not. In other words, the Great Resignation was mostly in 2021, but the after-effects are still being felt today even after Quit rates normalized. Wages in America.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession). And other measures of the economy were also positive, especially employment. I disagreed and noted I wasn't even on recession watch! And guess what?

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investing 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 7, 2022

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. This has happened , but this usually leads the economy by a year or more.

Sales 361

Sales Economy Engineering Investing 361

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 1, 2023

I am not sure if they quite recognize the potential damage they are doing to the economy. Lack of Single Family Homes : We’ve discussed this before most notably in 2021, but home builders have wildly underbuilt the number of houses relative to population growth following the financial crisis (GFC).

Food 317

Food Economy Numbers Sales 317

Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

APRIL 10, 2023

Fundamental changes are taking place in the labor economy, especially within the service sector. Immigrants used to fill the gap but we seem to have reduced the total number of legal immigrants over the past decade (some recent data suggests that’s improving). The post Help Wanted! appeared first on The Big Picture.

Retail 320

Retail Food Manufacturing Economy 320

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DECEMBER 26, 2022

As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. year-over-year in November compared to November 2021. Price appreciation will decrease from the unsustainable 2021 pace but seems likely to still be in the mid-to-high single digit range in 2022."

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 9, 2022

This was an out-of-the-consensus call and helped me call the bottom for the US economy in mid-2009. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. This graph shows the total number of registered vehicles in the U.S. Note: the number of registered vehicles is estimated for 2021 and 2022.

Sales 208

Sales Numbers Economy 208

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. There is not a lot the Fed can do to increase the number of workers, create more single-family homes, end the Russian war in Ukraine, produce more semiconductors, or untangle snarled supply chains.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

The Big Picture

MAY 8, 2023

The problem is that most of the time, those are bad reasons… Source: Irrelevant Investor Previously : One-Sided Markets (September 29, 2021) Is Partisanship Driving Consumer Sentiment? Consider : – Unemployment at 3.4%

Banking 321

Banking Media Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

MARCH 13, 2024

And there’s a fair number of people who say 70%, two thirds of the stock market without any risk at all, market risk that is – sign me up for that. And what you saw in 2021 and 2022 is transitory inflation that got us to 9 percent on CPI. It’s a number that’s put out every Thursday for the previous week.

Numbers 288

Numbers Insurance Economy Marketing 288

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

After a monstrous 68% recovery from the March 2020 pandemic low, and another nearly 30% gain in 2021, markets decided to have one of their all-too-regular spasms. Were you a late FOMO buyer in 2021? are fast-growing, highly profitable key players in the modern economy. Blame whatever you want – Too far, too fast? End of ZIRP?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. Their PTSD is palpable.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2024

And THAT is what led to the giant inflation spike of 2021 and 22. So, the Fed needs to have a sense of where things are headed with inflation — because rates are a tool that takes a little bit for it to work its way through the economy. It was a kind of slow burn on the economy. On its way up to just about 9%.

Economy 279

Economy Food Communication Consulting 279

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 4, 2024

If the economy remains strong (as we expect), that would matter much more than just about anything else. Here’s What the October Payroll Report Really Tells Us About the Economy October payrolls were a big disappointment, with job growth clocking in at just 12,000. But those numbers are backward looking.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 95

Calculated Risk

JULY 9, 2023

As we lap the surge in inventory that occurred in 2022 as higher mortgage rates priced out many home shoppers, the number of homes for sale is not keeping up. The number of newly listed homes has been lower than the same time the previous year for the past 52 weeks–an entire year. Inventory was down 2.1%

Sales 182

Sales Numbers Economy Marketing 182

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Methodology Preliminary (not-yet-benchmarked) state employment estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) continue to be subject to significant revisions around turning points in the economy. The QCEW data for October, November, and December 2021 were released on June 8, 2022. Q&A What's Going On?

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2 The current move from 2021 highs is shown in red. Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336