Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 10, 2024

We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well. Outperformed long term but down a sickening 43% and still down about 25% from its late 2021 highwater mark.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

That's pretty much what happened starting at the very end of 2021. I don't see the diversification benefit which as an ongoing theme forces us to think differently about how to build a 60/40 portfolio. It is important to understand the math though. No portfolio concept can always be best. That's a year to date chart.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

WENGER: Well, we reserve a lot of funds for follow-on, and we have a very sort of, I think, sophisticated reserves methodology that we’ve honed over many funds cycles now, where we actually built kind of a Monte Carlo analysis of the portfolio to see how much money we think we need to keep in reserve. RITHOLTZ: Right. There you go.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

So I mentioned 2021 was sort of aberrational. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about some imbalances, and I’m thinking about the sort of meme stock mania that began in 2020, when everybody was stuck at home during the pandemic, and just exploded in 2021. RITHOLTZ: That’s interesting. RITHOLTZ: Quite fascinating. MARTIN: Yeah.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

As a quick reminder, a 67% allocation to 90/60 generally equates to a 100% allocation to a 60/40 portfolio like you might get from Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). For this post I assembled a less dramatic portfolio more in line with Krom's thinking. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7%

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Steve Sanduski

AUGUST 4, 2022

I’ll go straight to the punch line —> The average RIA firm had negative revenue growth over the past five years if you exclude market movement using a traditional 60/40 market portfolio as a proxy for RIA investment allocations. The S&P 500 total return for the 5 years ending December 2021 was 112.9%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 29, 2023

This year, its performance has it the top 1% of mutual funds but in “2021 and 2022 it was ranked in the bottom 100th percentile.” Here I am talking not just portfolio management but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios. So it is today with bonds.

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The Better Letter

MARCH 18, 2025

Both 2021 and 2022 each had 14 upsets; there were 10 upsets in 2023 and nine in 2024, if only three in 2007. Six 11 seeds have made it to the Final Four: LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006, VCU in 2011, Loyola Chicago in 2018, UCLA in 2021, and NC State last year. It applies to your personal portfolio, too. quintillion.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

A little more specifically the need for diversified portfolios persists with the implication that bonds are the way to get this done. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% down to 0.50% let alone from the all time high of 15% down to 0.50%.

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Darrow Wealth Management

MAY 22, 2023

Interest rates have skyrocketed since the end of 2021. Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. Cash vs stocks: growth of $1M With an average annualized return under 1%, the cash portfolio only gains $92,000 over a decade.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. And so, getting to your question about equities where we’re positioned right now, equities absolutely can conserve an important part in the portfolio. I was econ and kind of geeky.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. I buy everything.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

If at the start of the year, someone put 100% into the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio, then to employ a portable alpha strategy, they could use leverage to add something to hopefully make it additive to returns. So adding a potential alpha source on top of beta (the basic building blocks).

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Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2022

T he stock market has been like a rocket ship over the last three years 2019/2020/2021, advancing +90% as measured by the S&P 500 index, and +136% for the NASDAQ. Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. Source: Calafia Beach Pundit.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

What I took from it was that the safe withdrawal rate in 2021 was 3.3%, last year it was 3.8% If the 4% treasury portfolio pays out $50,000 today, it will pay the same $50,000 in 2038 with no growth in account value. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 29, 2024

Risk parity portfolios are particularly vulnerable when their active weighting algorithms fail to predict shifts in asset correlations." In the same period Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio compounded at 10.89% with a standard deviation of 12.43%. The table/chart goes back to FAPYX' inception.

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The Better Letter

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Based on the above, nobody should be surprised that 2022 looks like it will be the worst year for the classic 60:40 portfolio since 1937’s -22 percent. Source: Crestmont Research Over the past 50 years (1972-2021), the S&P 500 has provided an excellent annualized total return of 9.4 Things are no better overseas.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

So I came down, met with our head of the portfolio review department, which oversees our external managers, met with our head of brokerage, and then met with the head of bind indexing, who was Ken Volpert at the time. And she was like, “You should come down and talk to some people at Vanguard.”

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

In 2021 it was up roughly the same 27% as the S&P 500. Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX replicates 100% into a 60/40 portfolio which leaves 33% left over to do something. Not exactly.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 6, 2022

And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. BERRUGA: So many of our clients were struggling to find alternative sources of income for their portfolios.

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Validea

JUNE 14, 2023

The Math Behind the Growth Let’s take a step back and think about what it would take for a company like Apple to reach a $10 trillion market cap. trillion (the total value was $52 trillion at the end of 2021, source ). A well-diversified portfolio can help protect against the unpredictable nature of the stock market.

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Zajac Group

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

While the data isnt as black and white as other aspects of finance, the impact of behavioral finance is clearjust consider the Covid-induced crash in February 2020 or the meme stock phenomenon of 2021 (to name a few more recent events). Behavior Finance and Your Portfolio So much of the concept of investing is about logic, math, and numbers.

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 16, 2022

And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, The product portfolio includes dominant brands such as Pampers, Gillette, Whisper, Old Spice, Head & Shoulder, Ariel, etc. Company 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Average 5 yr. higher ROE. Nestle India Ltd.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 10, 2024

So we were very aggressive in 2020 and 2021. And that’s why in 2021 into 21, we said, okay, this is the peak of the cycle rate of change. And so the last six and a half years, that portfolio has outperformed the s and p by almost 800 basis points annually. We kinda came into the pandemic, more bearish than most.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2023

So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. And then I was looking for something more applied. The second is excess returns.

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Brown Advisory

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

The New Normal It is difficult for investors and individuals alike not to have been directly impacted by the rapid rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022, the succeeding interest rate hikes by global central banks and the ensuing effects these economic events have had on financial markets, including the mortgage market.

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FMG

DECEMBER 22, 2022

When LPL bought Waddell & Reed in 2021, it opened some doors as the pay structure was more conducive for small practices and they offer a lot of optional add-on services, like virtual assistants. The math speaks for itself- over half our population is female, yet only around 20% of financial advisors are women.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 15, 2023

That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. That allows you to do two things.

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The Big Picture

JULY 4, 2023

.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee. They get trained at great places.

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The Better Letter

FEBRUARY 9, 2023

Math is powerful. Winning as a gambler is tough generally , but there are typically several Super Bowl bets where simple math demonstrates that the line is off (in terms of reality if not in terms of equalizing the total bets). If you know and can apply it, math is a major edge in gambling about football and elsewhere.

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The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2023

By the time you got to ’87, right, the futures were five years old, people thought there was going to be portfolio insurance, that there was going to be this massive, always liquidity that you could stay longer stocks and that you could sell futures against it. And so it’s one of these things that math works.

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The Big Picture

JULY 19, 2022

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Antti Ilmanen, Co-Head, Portfolio Solutions, AQR , is below. BARRY RITHOLTZ; HOST; MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Antti Ilmanen is AQR’s Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group. CO-HEAD, AQR’S PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS GROUP: Thanks, Barry.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 21, 2023

You’re accidentally waiting into yet another quant controversy, whether you need both these characteristics in every stock, or whether you can have some stocks that are great on one and simply average on the other and the portfolio comes out. I was a fixed income portfolio manager and trader, which is a ton of fun.

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The Big Picture

MARCH 12, 2024

So that’s an active part of portfolio trimming and opt and optimization. The good news is no one event has a big impact on the portfolio. Well, I think that same thing’s been happening in commercial now for the last, you know, since 2021 is that physical occupancy is the leading indicator to economic occupancy.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 22, 2024

As I read the FT article, I had a thought about how to try to make the fund work as part of diversified portfolio, not the entire portfolio. The way Portfolios 1 and 2 are weighted, the math works for being a 60/40 portfolio and then from there we add portable alpha/capital efficiency/return stacking. It has a 0.78

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 10, 2023

Michael Lewis ] 00:01:42 So this friend reaches out in September of 2021, and I’d never heard of Sam Bankman Fried or F T X , I hadn’t been paying much attention to crypto. Because he was all sure he was a totally isolated math. So, so he’s brilliant at math. He goes to m i t to study, study physics and math.

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