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This year, its performance has it the top 1% of mutual funds but in “2021 and 2022 it was ranked in the bottom 100th percentile.” Here I am talking not just portfoliomanagement but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. So that’s the kind of more investment side of things.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. We had really good 2021 in terms of inflows. You have the liquidity, the tax efficiency, the transparency.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Those have compounded over the centuries and have managed to amass a huge amount of, of capital. So in 2021 was the equivalent of March, 2000, right?
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. So I, as a discretionary portfoliomanager, if you hand me cash, I can look at the market and say, you know what?
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. And my maternal grandmother was also home, and she spoke primarily German to me.
So, first, I found the book to be quite fascinating, very in depth and you managed to take some of the more technical arcana and make it very understandable. You began as a central bank portfoliomanager in Finland. So, that relationship actually already started when I was a portfoliomanager, right? ILMANEN: Yes.
I was a fixed income portfoliomanager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of PortfolioManagement. My mom was a math teacher so — RITHOLTZ: Okay. But it wasn’t like whatever skills they taught me in the PhD. RITHOLTZ: Meaning what?
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. By the end of 2021, our sell side indicator was at the most bullish levels we’d seen since Oh really?
I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. HOFFMAN: And at some point, I don’t know, late, just from 2021, talking to my publisher, I was like, “You know, Paul, not a lot of failure at the end of the day.” He was right on the thesis.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. He helps portfoliomanagers make sense of the world. And people looked at him in like 2021, like he had two heads and he turned out to be dead. So at that point, I had a pretty big career. Not, not useful.
That’s why the markets are much more of a mind game than a math game. And that’s why markets will always be exceedingly hard, even when the math seems easy or the future seems certain. Broadly speaking, in 2021, economists wrongly expected inflation to prove “transitory.” Stop with the math.`
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