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Observations to Start 2023

The Big Picture

Consider: From 2010 through 2021, The S&P500 Index gained 330% — a little over 13% annually (not including dividends). Monetary stimulus (ZIRP/QE) from 2009-2021. But Tesla’s annus horribilis followed a strong 2021 at +49.8%. over 2021-22, but Amazon dropped more, losing 48.9% What’s already priced in?

Economy 328
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Research links: falling for something

Abnormal Returns

papers.ssrn.com) A rave review for Alan Blinder's "A Monetary and Fiscal History of the United States 1961-2021." mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Why not build portfolios with semi-volatility in mind? (sherwood.news) Monetary policy Better monetary policy is making for more predictable currency rates.

Sales 277
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Retail Lobby: “We Lied About Organized Theft”

The Big Picture

billion in retail inventory losses in 2021 was not “attributable to organized retail crime.” retailers retracted its claim that “organized retail crime” accounted for nearly half of all inventory losses in 2021 after finding that incorrect data was used for its analysis.” In 2021, he told a U.S. for over a decade.”

Retail 353
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Wednesday links: a new revenue model

Abnormal Returns

(allstarcharts.com) Bitcoin hit its highest level since November 2021. blockworks.co) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Investing on hopes and hunches — making emotional decisions — is why so few portfolios earn the actual market return." behaviouralinvestment.com) Why the 60/40 portfolio isn't going anywhere.

Valuation 279
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Personal finance links: closing out the year

Abnormal Returns

downtownjoshbrown.com) A lot of stuff matters beside your portfolio. obliviousinvestor.com) Splitting your portfolio in two. savantwealth.com) The IRS is extending an olive branch to taxpayers who owe money from 2020-2021. (financialsamurai.com) Investing Five ways you lost money in 2023 including overtrading.

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

2021 Inflation Surge : In March 2021, CPI shot through the feds upside target of 2%. If you believed these stories, and acted on them, your portfolio probably did poorly in markets over this era. Instead, markets rallied 69% as the tech sector provided the means for the services sector to operate remotely.

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What Does the Relative Performance of Equal Weight S&P500 Mean?

The Big Picture

Desmond loved to ask professional portfolio managers “What percentage of stocks would you expect would be making new highs at the top day of the bull market when the Dow Jones was making its absolute high?” He noted that markets get increasingly narrow by cap size (capitalization) as longer secular bull markets approach their ends.