Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2024

million in 2022, and 7.3 million in 2021 (2021 and 2022 were the two best years ever), but still a solid year for employment gains. in early 2022. 10) Housing Inventory: Housing inventory decreased sharply during the pandemic to record lows in early 2022. Will there be a recession in 2025? million jobs in 2024.

Economics 290

Economics Economy Sales Commission 290

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. In November, we saw the first positive score for multi-family since 2022. From the AIA: ABI December 2024: Business conditions end the year on a weak note The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score fell to 44.1

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 2, 2024

Below 2022 Peak • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 3.6% . • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 4.2% year-over-year in August • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family and Multi-Family Serious Delinquency Rates Increased in September • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.5%

Marketing 264

Marketing Marketing 264

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2025

in December 2022. The following graph uses Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) existing home inventory from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and new home inventory from the Census Bureau (only completed and under construction inventory). Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 22.4%

Marketing 278

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 278

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers 278

Numbers Economics 278

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2025

below the peak in 2022. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 4.2% Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is 0.6%

236

236

Calculated Risk

MARCH 11, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 Below is a comparable table for the end of 2022. trillion, with most of the decline reflecting decreases in Treasury and Agency MBS holdings.

Assets 165

Assets Portfolio Accounting Marketing 165

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

in June 2023 from June 2022 , their first decline in three months. million) were up 0.6% (32,547( carloads) over the same period in 2022 and were the highest since 2019. decline from June 2022 was their 16th straight. Carloads in 2021, 2022 and 2022: Total originated carloads (which don’t include intermodal) on U.S.

Retail 357

Retail Numbers 357

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

in December 2022. It took a number of years following the housing bust for new home inventory to return to the pre-bubble percent of total inventory. Then, with the pandemic, existing home inventory collapsed and now the percent of new homes is 25.1% of the total for sale inventory, down from a peak of 27.2%

Marketing 214

Marketing Marketing Numbers Sales 214

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. Personal saving was $843.2 billion in December and the personal saving ratepersonal saving as a percentage of disposable personal incomewas 3.8 emphasis added The December PCE price index increased 2.6 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.4 percent YoY, unchanged from 2.8

Food 162

Food Economics 162

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2023

I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. This data is as of June 25th.

Transportation 352

Transportation Numbers Sales 352

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

below the peak in 2022. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Private residential (red) spending is 4.9% Private non-residential (blue) spending is at a new peak. Public construction spending is 0.1%

179

179

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2023

billion, and an average loss of $5,400 per borrower since the first quarter of 2022. As in the fourth quarter of 2022, Western states posted the largest annual home equity losses: Washington (-$74,300), California (-$59,600) and Utah (-$37,700). The report shows that U.S. year over year, representing a collective loss of $108.4

Numbers 363

Numbers Distribution Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 26, 2023

in August, unchanged since early 2022. in August 2022. in August 2022. in August 2022 and a high of 4.3% Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from August 2022. in August, also a historic low. • foreclosure rate held steady at 0.3%

Marketing 331

Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

HELOC balances increased by $7 billion, representing the tenth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022, and stood at $387 billion. Mortgage balances increased by $75 billion from the previous quarter and reached $12.59 trillion at the end of September. Credit card balances increased by $24 billion to $1.17

Economics 309

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 309

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

”1 I was pretty skeptical about Greedflation initially; when i ranked the top 15 sources of US inflation in mid-2022 , “ Corporate Profit Seeking ” was at the bottom, ranked 13 out of 15 inflation causes. In August 2022, Vox suggested that if you were mad about inflation you should blame your local officials.

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

Calculated Risk

JULY 8, 2024

I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through last August (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). LBR is currently at $446.00 Click on graph for larger image.

348

348

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 25, 2023

I stopped the weekly updates of high frequency indicators at the end of 2022. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue), 2022 (Orange) and 2023 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. compared to the same week in 2022.

Transportation 321

Transportation Numbers Sales 321

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2023

Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.99% in February 2022. Note that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and were at 0.13% in February, up from 0.08% in February 2022. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in February was 0.65%, down from 0.66% January. Fannie Mae reported earlier.

360

360

Calculated Risk

JUNE 22, 2023

million units, 18% above like-2022, and stronger than Q1’s 8% gain. million units, up 13% from January-June 2022’s 6.78 Light-Vehicle Sales Pegged for 21% Gain; Q2 to Roll in at 2-Year-High 15.7 Million SAAR (pay content). Brief excerpt: Deliveries in the second quarter will total 4.1 First-half 2023 volume will total 7.67

Sales 358

Sales Marketing Marketing 358

Calculated Risk

JUNE 16, 2023

I've now switched to a new physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through May 16th (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red). Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons.

349

349

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 4, 2025

million in September 2010 to a low of 380,634 in June 2022. Bankruptcy totals for the previous 12 months are reported four times annually. For more than a decade, total filings fell steadily, from a high of nearly 1.6 Total filings have increased each quarter since then, but they remain far lower than historical highs.

189

189

Calculated Risk

APRIL 26, 2023

Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 0.92% in March 2022. Note that multi-family delinquencies have been increasing and were at 0.13% in March, up from 0.08% in March 2022. Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in March was 0.62%, down from 0.65% February.

354

354

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later. Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

APRIL 17, 2023

Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels. compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 59.1%), and down 52.4% The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 51.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 50.9%).

361

361

Calculated Risk

JUNE 12, 2023

Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels. compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 18.4%), and down 52.4% The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 12.8% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 53.7%).

363

363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

during 2022. in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

Calculated Risk

MAY 1, 2023

Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels. compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 52.5%), and down 51.3% The red line is for 2023. The black line is for 2019. Inventory was up 46.7% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 52.1%).

361

361

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

Note that inventory is up from the previous two years (the record low was in 2022), but still well below normal levels. compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 39.7%), and down 53.1% The black line is for 2019. It appears likely inventory will be down year-over-year in Q3. Inventory was up 34.4%

353

353

Calculated Risk

APRIL 25, 2024

The NCHS reports: The provisional number of births for the United States in 2023 was 3,591,328, down 2% from 2022. births per 1,000 females ages 15–44, down 3% from 2022. births per 1,000 women in 2023, a decline of 2% from 2022. The general fertility rate was 54.4 The total fertility rate was 1,616.5

Numbers 298

Numbers 298

Calculated Risk

JULY 3, 2023

compared to the same week in 2022 (last week it was up 4.3%), and down 51.9% It appears likely same week inventory will be below 2022 levels for the remainder of the year, but above 2021 levels - and possibly above 2020 levels late in the year. Inventory was down 1.3% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week down 51.8%).

360

360

Calculated Risk

JUNE 19, 2023

This marks the sixth straight month that builder confidence has increased and is the first time that sentiment levels have surpassed the midpoint of 50 since July 2022. It has declined steadily since peaking at 36% in November 2022. • The average price reduction was 7% in June, below the 8% rate in December 2022. •

Sales 358

Sales Numbers Marketing Marketing 358