The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

during 2022. in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years.

Economy 331

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Previously : Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022). Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022). The Uncertainty Monster (July 21, 2022). by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

”1 I was pretty skeptical about Greedflation initially; when i ranked the top 15 sources of US inflation in mid-2022 , “ Corporate Profit Seeking ” was at the bottom, ranked 13 out of 15 inflation causes. In August 2022, Vox suggested that if you were mad about inflation you should blame your local officials.

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

The Big Picture

AUGUST 10, 2022

Source: Bloomberg , August 9th, 2022. Bloomberg, August 8, 2022. August 9, 2022). The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022). Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022). Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022). See also : Blame Election Deniers for Faltering Consumer Sentiment. by Matthew A. Politics & Investing.

Wealth Management 306

Wealth Management Economy Management Investing 306

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). Fed should make clear that rising profit margins are spurring inflation (FT, November 2, 2022). The truth about inflation (Popular Information, November 7, 2022). Reasons Are Adding Up for Optimism on Inflation (Bloomberg, November 7, 2022). October 7, 2022).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 12, 2023

Previously : For Lower Inflation, Stop Raising Rates (January 18, 2023) Inflation Comes Down Despite the Fed (January 12, 2023) Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation (November 17, 2022) Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party? October 7, 2022) How the Fed Causes (Model) Inflation (October 25, 2022) Why Aren’t There Enough Workers?

Food 351

Food Numbers 351

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022). This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. October 7, 2022) Revisiting Peak Inflation (June 29, 2022) Has Inflation Peaked? (May And you should take the long weekend to do the same!

Economy 317

Economy 317

The Big Picture

AUGUST 14, 2022

During the 2022 Abel lectures Jim Simons had a conversation with Nils A. Source: The Abel Prize , June 13, 2022. Baas and Nicolai Tangen. The lectures were held at The University of Oslo, May 25th…. A conversation with Jim Simons: Mathematics, Common Sense and Good Luck.

324

324

The Big Picture

JULY 20, 2022

Source: Bloomberg , July 19th, 2022. Previously : Rally , Multiple Compression , Earnings¯_(?)_/¯ Recession , Double Bottom (July 18, 2022). Too Late to Sell, Too Early to Buy… (June 16, 2022). Risk, Reward Two Sides of Same Coin, says Ritholtz. ?.

Wealth Management 303

Wealth Management Management Investing Investments 303

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 3, 2022

It wasn’t until March 2022, 2 years after the pandemic panic, that the FOMC deemed it ok to start raising rates. Previously : When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022). How the Fed Causes (Model) Inflation (October 25, 2022). October 7, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Planning 317

Planning Marketing Marketing 317

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2024

I’ll keep tracking this each month… Source : State Coincident Indexes: Release The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, December 29, 2023 Previously : State Coincident Indicators: November 2022 (January 4, 2023) Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) _ 1: The State Coincident Indicators (..)

Banking 331

Banking Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation. It’s natural to see a correlation between when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, and inflation peaking soon after. December 9, 2022).

Economy 347

Economy Marketing Marketing 347

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 14, 2022

See also : Bad News is Good News (Batnick, October 14, 2022). September consumer inflation: a function of the fictitious “Owners’ Equivalent Rent” + new cars : (Bond Dad, October 13, 2022). Previously : 7th Inning Stretch (September 30, 2022). August 15, 2022). Hindsight Capital (April 27, 2022). Countertrend?

Risk Tolerance 336

Risk Tolerance Sales Marketing Marketing 336

The Big Picture

MAY 2, 2024

The Zillow Observed Rent Index , with a different mix of rental apartments and houses, peaked around March 2022 at about 15%; it is now at about +3.8% What rates do you think landlords built into their lease renewals 12-24 months ago when they were drafting and negotiating those 2022 and ’23 leases? year over year.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting 363

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022). October 7, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022). Regardless, it’s a worthwhile exercise to wargame Fed actions, and consider what they might mean to your portfolio and/or personal finances.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Or anything in between: High Inflation to Tamp Down Gift Giving: Black Friday (Bloomberg November 24, 2022). NYT, November 25, 2022). Shoppers expected to spend on Black Friday, despite inflation (CNN, November 25, 2022). Inflations weighs on Black Friday shoppers (AP, November 25, 2022). Previously : Black Friday #Fails.

Retail 299

Retail Sales Accounting 299

The Big Picture

APRIL 9, 2024

The State Coincident Indicators are composed of four state-level variables: 1) Nonfarm payroll employment; 2) Average hours worked in manufacturing by production workers; 3) Unemployment rate; and 4) Wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index.

Banking 306

Banking Manufacturing Economy 306

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

No) (June 1, 2022) What Data Makes NBER Recession Calls? September 1, 2022) The Post-Normal Economy (January 7, 2022) 10 Bad Takes On This Market (May 19, 2023) Sources : State Coincident Indexes Current Report ( PDF ) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, May 2023 The post What Recession? Previously : Are We in a Recession?

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

But if Stagflation is your reason for being negative, you run into a similar problem: Growth has been robust, unemployment low, and inflation is way below its June 2022 highs. January 25, 2024) Why the FED Should Be Already Cutting (May 2, 2024) Transitory Is Taking Longer than Expected (February 10, 2022) Has Inflation Peaked? (May

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Economy Banking 321

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) November 21, 2022. Always return to first principles… UPDATE: November 21 2022. Previously : When Narratives Collapse (November 18, 2022). Unconventional Wisdom (November 9, 2022). November 7, 2022). Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). WSJ, November 18, 2022. __.

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Taxes Economy 325

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

crossingwallstreet.com) The best books Ben read in 2022 including "Die With Zero" by Bill Perkins. awealthofcommonsense.com) A look at the best charts of 2022. safalniveshak.com) The markets were bad in 2022, but things could always be worse. ritholtz.com) 11 ideas that stuck from 2022 including the 'power of quitting.'

Financial Market 279

Financial Market Portfolio Investing Investments 279

The Big Picture

AUGUST 22, 2022

Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman and CIO & “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, says he looks at the sell-off in the first half of 2022 as a “cyclical bear within a longer secular bull.” Source: Bloomberg , August 19th, 2022.

Wealth Management 305

Wealth Management Management Media Marketing 305

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

Times, September 14, 2022). How financial advisors can create a more inclusive future for the industry (Financial Planning, September 13, 2022). Amid heat and motorcycles, Ritholtz and Robasciotti kick off new Future Proof ‘festival’ (Financial Planning, September 11, 2022).

Financial Planning 340

Financial Planning Financial Advice Food Financial Advisor 340

The Big Picture

AUGUST 24, 2022

I direct you to today’s “ Exceptions to the Rule, ” where Ben dives into the nitty gritty of the conflicting data between market action and inflation data: BULL : The S&P 500 has recovered half of its 2022 bear market losses. Wealth of Common Sense, August 23, 2022. Previously : What Does the Market “Know?” (August 19, 2022).

Marketing 327

Marketing Marketing Investing Investments 327

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 1, 2022

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers.

364

364

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 7, 2022

Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022). Normalization vs Inflation (March 14, 2022). 2000s : Kept rates too low for too long following 9/11 and dotcom implosion – FOMC Rate did not get over 1% until 2004.

Banking 336

Banking Economics Portfolio Assets 336

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Source : State Coincident Indexes December 2023 The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, January 26, 2023 Previously : State Coincident Indicators Slipping (January 2, 2024) State Coincident Indicators: November 2022 (January 4, 2023) Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) The post State Coincident (..)

Banking 286

Banking 286

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. See also : Weak Earnings Reports Aren’t Fazing Investors After Brutal Year for Stocks ( WSJ , July 24, 2022). Previously : Risk & Reward: Two Sides of Same Coin (July 20, 2022).

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

The Big Picture

APRIL 3, 2023

trillion as of the end of 2022. Given the rough year markets had in 2022, including all of the held asset classes, it is an impressive, albeit curious showing. The group also names 2022’s Best of, including Fund, Asset Class, Region, and Industry of the Year (all found here ). Its an amazing collection of charts and data.

Assets 312

Assets Consulting Taxes Marketing 312

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

Perhaps for a little context, we might consider these indices in a broader time frame than YTD: For example, looking back 2 years shows us that most of these 2023 year-to-date gains are simply a recovery of the 2022 drop, as rates rose and fears of a profit collapse unfolded.

Numbers 325

Numbers Investing Investments Management 325

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

As our discussions last week suggested, most of the falloff in Goods inflation began in the middle of 2022; elevated prices in wages, autos, housing, and energy are primarily driven by a lack of workers, a shortage of semiconductors, and a tiny supply of single-family homes (elevated energy prices are war related). October 7, 2022).

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

The Big Picture

MAY 3, 2023

October 7, 2022) Transitory Is Taking Longer than Expected (February 10, 2022) Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022) The post Press Pause appeared first on The Big Picture.

Economy 353

Economy 353