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Lawler: Some Observations on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Wind-Down and Reinvestment “Strategy” (Still in Quantitative Easing Mode, Just Less So)

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler: From the beginning of 2020 to early June of 2022 the Federal Reserves balance sheet more than doubled to an almost inconceivable $8.9 Inquiring minds might want to know why the Federal Reserve did not achieve its balance sheet targets by selling longer maturity/duration assets it had previously purchased.

Assets 165
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Eight Must Reads for the CRE Industry (Oct. 4, 2022)

Wealth Management

Asset managers continue to own large office portfolios, according to Pensions & Investments. As more homebuyers step away from the market due to rising mortgage rates, home builders are selling new homes to SFR investors in bulk, reports The Wall Street Journal.

Portfolio 289
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10 Investment Must Reads This Week

Wealth Management

After 2022, many declared the 60/40 portfolio dead, but the traditional portfolio mix rebounded in 2023, writes Morningstar. BlackRock’s move into the private infrastructure investment space is part of a broader strategy for the asset manager to diversify from its strength in ETFs, according to FundFire.

Investing 277
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Four Quadrant Portfolio Check Up

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Let's dig in some more on Permanent Portfolio quadrant style. AQR Multi-Asset (AQRIX) used to be called Risk Parity and it also does some quadranty stuff. AQRIX obviously was hit the hardest in 2022 which makes sense from the standpoint of it being a risk parity strategy but the Risk Parity ETF (RPAR) was down 29% at that same point.

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Investing Behavioral Hacks

The Big Picture

After a big gap opening, latecomers piled in; many had been sitting on the sidelines following a challenging 2022, while others got panicked out during the 10% October drawdown. The problem is those behaviors are so destructive to a portfolio. and it stops you from messing with your primary portfolio. ~~~ Good investing is boring.

Investing 344
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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

What’s obvious is that cheaper is better than more expensive; that there are inherent costs in managing an active portfolio that include more than just trading and taxes but research, analysis, PMs, etc. But that is not the same as becoming one of the most dominant asset managers in the world. Concentrated portfolio risk.

Taxes 334
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Why Is the Fed Always Late to the Party?

The Big Picture

If only the Fed didn’t do X, our portfolio would have been much better” seems to be a terrible approach to managing assets for clients. Following those March 2020 rate cuts, the Fed stayed at Zero until March 2022. Previously : Farewell, TINA (September 28, 2022). June 9, 2022). Blame the Fed For Everything!

Banking 336