article thumbnail

Collapse in Prospective Home Buyer Traffic

The Big Picture

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022). This is atypical.

Budgeting 363
article thumbnail

Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 45% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 18%

Calculated Risk

Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022. Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory.

Sales 362
Insiders

Sign Up for our Newsletter

This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.

article thumbnail

Why the FED Should Be Already Cutting

The Big Picture

The Consumer Expenditure (CE) Survey asks households the share of their budget which goes towards different categories of goods and services, and is subsequently used by the CPI program to create weights for index estimation. The Housing Survey collects price observations of rental housing units across the United States.”

Budgeting 363
article thumbnail

Wednesday links: what winning looked like

Abnormal Returns

Markets 15 charts that explain 2022 returns. morningstar.com) 2022 was a good year for value. alhambrapartners.com) Commodities Managed futures returns in 2022 were front-end loaded. nytimes.com) FTX's demise is leaving a big hole in sports sponsorship budgets. blog.validea.com) Consumer sentiment is awful.

article thumbnail

Which is Worse: Inflation or Unemployment?

The Big Picture

Barry Ritholtz (@ritholtz) November 21, 2022. It’s a horrific experience, that crushes a family’s budget, gets people evicted, makes people reconsider their own career choices, and second-guess their worth; it can even lead to crime. Always return to first principles… UPDATE: November 21 2022. November 7, 2022).

Economics 325
article thumbnail

Inflation Expectations: A Dubious Survey

The Big Picture

Ask any investor what their tolerance for risk is in the fourth quarter of 2021 and you will hear a very different answer than asking that same question of that same investor in the second quarter of 2022. FRBNY, Center for Microeconomic Data (August 2022 Data). Survey of Consumer Expectations. Home price change expectations.

article thumbnail

Sussing Out Probabilities

The Big Picture

Previously : Groping for a Bottom (October 14, 2022). 7th Inning Stretch (September 30, 2022). August 15, 2022). But when the full range of possible outcomes is this challenging to assess, it makes the markets appear flighty, indecisive, and trendless. Nobody ever said discounting future cash flows was easy…. Countertrend?

Budgeting 306