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Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook "Uncertainty"

Calculated Risk

From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Despite elevated levels of uncertainty, the U.S. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. Further, recent surveys of households and businesses point to heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook. GDP expanded at a 2.3

Economics 162
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FOMC Minutes "Purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term"

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, September 20-21, 2022. These policy moves would therefore prevent the far greater economic pain associated with entrenched high inflation, including the even tighter policy and more severe restraint on economic activity that would then be needed to restore price stability.

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FOMC Preview: 75bp Hike

Calculated Risk

In our view, based on the median policy rate path as expressed in the September SEPs and communication from some FOMC participants like San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, the committee is likely to engage in a debate on the appropriateness of slowing the pace of policy rate hikes beginning in December. June 2022 1.5 June 2022 1.5

Banking 345
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FOMC Preview: No Change to Policy Expected

Calculated Risk

On the meeting this week from BofA: " We expect the Fed to stay on hold at the September FOMC meeting , consistent with recent Fed communications and current market pricing. The biggest focus of the September meeting should be the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Economic projections will be released at this meeting.

Banking 288
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

debt ceiling and communication from several Federal Reserve officials last week, which sent Treasury yields higher, along with mortgage rates. Economic data released over the past week have also pointed to a still-resilient economy. Added Kan, “Investors remained attuned to the uncertainty around the U.S.

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What’s Wrong With Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indexes

The Big Picture

It is a “monthly measure of how unpredictable overall economic conditions are 1 month, 3 months, and 1 year ahead.” But “uncertainty” as that word is commonly used on Wall Street 1 seems to be correlated with concerns about faltering economic conditions and/or rising market volatility. And I am okay with that.

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Weekly Market Insight – October 31, 2022

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

Stocks overcame poor earnings results from some of America’s largest companies to post gains last week as investors cheered positive earnings surprises, easing inflation and a rebound in economic growth. Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2022.

Marketing 105