AdvicePay

APRIL 12, 2023

The economic challenges of 2022 combined with the rapid increase of inflation and interest rates motivated clients to seek out more than just investment management services from financial professionals. People not only want real financial planning, they need it. So what does this mean for financial firms and professionals?

Financial Planning 88

Financial Planning Planning Clients Economics 88

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 29, 2024

In 2022, positive economic data typically led to a sell-off in the stock market, and weak data often led to a rally. Strong economic growth and better data should be viewed positively, as it shows the economy isn’t falling into a recession. And that is what is happening now. We expect rate cuts in 2024, perhaps starting in May.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 12, 2024

The late week rebound was supported by better economic data, including some good jobs-related numbers. But as the week progressed things calmed down and better economic data showed fears of a recession were once again overblown. This recent patch of volatility is really quite normal, even for good years for stocks.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Economy 95

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 30, 2023

While economic growth may have peaked in the third quarter, we expect the economy to remain supportive. Surging interest rates crushed the housing market in 2022, which was not unexpected. Keep in mind the trajectory of economic growth was not a given, considering the scale of the shocks. What Does This Mean for the Fed?

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Government 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 16, 2024

DOWNLOAD OUR 2024 MARKET OUTLOOK The Macroeconomic Backdrop As we look to the year ahead, our proprietary Leading Economic Index (LEI) indicates even lower odds of a recession than 2023. Our Market Views This economic environment should support solid earnings growth and improved margins, leading to a good year for markets.

Investments 96

Investments Investing Marketing Marketing 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 24, 2023

We just received a tremendous amount of data to round out the economic picture in the second quarter (Q2). All This Points to Strong Economic Growth The Atlanta Fed puts out a “nowcast” of quarterly real GDP growth that is updated with major economic data releases. It’s a Bird. It’s a Plane! It’s … the U.S. over the past year.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 98

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 13, 2025

As you can see, policy rate expectations have been creeping up since last summer, mostly as the labor market data has come in better than expected (along with other economic data). It was strong even in 2022 and 2023, which was another clue that a recession wasnt imminent. Compliance Case # 7521978.1._011325_C

Marketing 68

Marketing Marketing Economy Compliance 68

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Many economists believed factors such as the yield curve, M2 money supply, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), and credit markets indicated trouble was coming and the consumer was cracking. billion in October, which was more than in October 2022 at the bottom of a vicious bear market. onshoring).

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Retail 96

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

A Strong Labor Market Is Key A lot of hiring took place in 2021 and 2022, with the economy more than recovering all the jobs lost in 2020. If a worker can get higher pay by switching jobs, which is what happened in 2021-2022, employers may have to pony up more to keep them. at the end of 2022 to 2.6% equities in particular.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 96

Carson Wealth

AUGUST 19, 2024

Given the somewhat gloomy economic expectations still baked into the market following the weaker-than-expected August 2 jobs report, the market response was decisively positive. S&P 500 Index gains weren’t the only sign that the retail sales report shifted the market picture of the economic outlook. versus a 0.2%

Retail 95

Retail Marketing Marketing Sales 95

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

As the chart below shows, the primary driver of disinflation over the past year, from a peak of 9% in June 2022 to 3% in June 2023, was falling energy prices. Housing inflation ran at an annualized pace of 8-10% between June 2022 and February 2023. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose 0.6%

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Retail 95

Carson Wealth

APRIL 1, 2024

The Conference Board’s widely followed Leading Economic Index finally had its first monthly gain after 23 consecutive months of declines. Throughout the current rally, we have deferred to our proprietary leading economic index, created by our Chief Macro Strategist Sonu Varghese, whose Ph.D. While our U.S.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 96

Carson Wealth

JANUARY 2, 2024

The Manufacturing Renaissance is Here Sonu Varghese, VP and Global Macro Strategist I’ve never seen an economic chart like this, especially one related to factory construction. in October 2022 and causing a heap of pain since the summer of 2020. The year 2022 was painful across asset classes (sorry to bring it up!),

Marketing 86

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 86

Carson Wealth

JUNE 10, 2024

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) actually measures this, via a metric called “part-time employment for economic reasons.” annualized, but well off the red-hot levels of 10%+ in 2021-2022 (when inflation surged), so the Fed should have little concern that the current rate could drive inflation higher.

Marketing 142

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 142

Carson Wealth

OCTOBER 14, 2024

Last Saturday marks the official two-year birthday of the bull market that started on October 12, 2022. As long-time readers know, Carson Investment Research has been on record since November of 2022 that the lows were indeed in and prices were going higher, and that the economy would surprise to the upside and avoid a recession.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Numbers Food 95

Carson Wealth

APRIL 8, 2024

However, a break in early 2022 indicated elevated odds that the rest of the year could be dicey. These include some of the worst years in stock market history, including 1973, 1974, the tech bubble, 2008, and 2022. However, wage growth has eased since 2022, and that hasn’t changed despite the recent acceleration in hiring.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 96

Carson Wealth

FEBRUARY 26, 2024

NVIDIA Earnings Show AI Demand Ramping Up Faster than Supply The economic story behind NVIDIA’s blockbuster earnings is very simple in some ways and goes back to Econ 101. billion in the fourth quarter of 2022. It highlights a large, but still early, shift in demand for AI chips and hardware that simply can’t be met by current supply.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economy 96

Carson Wealth

MARCH 25, 2024

Going into this meeting, a big question was whether Fed members would lower that projection to just two cuts in their summary of economic projections (the dot plot). Fed officials upgraded their economic growth projections for 2024 from 1.4% However, the economy managed to avoid a recession in 2022-2023 despite rates at 5.4%.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 6, 2024

So, it is likely that markets will continue to focus on the economic resilience and business resourcefulness that have been clearly demonstrated. It’s clear how inflation broadened out in June 2022 relative to December 2019. The picture for March 2024 looks closer to what it did in December 2019, rather than June 2022.

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 20, 2023

Headline inflation has pulled all the way back from 9% year-over-year in June 2022 to 3.2% Inflation broadened significantly for these items by September 2022. We believe this is evidence that a significant economic slowdown may not be necessary to move core inflation toward the Fed’s target. in October.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Distribution 95

Carson Wealth

JULY 17, 2023

Energy prices drove the inflation surge in 2022, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Rental inflation was averaging a 9% annual pace between June 2022 and February 2023. Perhaps the best news is that inflation is falling, and poised to fall even further, without a rise in unemployment and an economic slowdown.

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Food Compliance 98

Risk Management Guru

OCTOBER 24, 2022

The country’s financial sector plays a significant role in its economic expansion. Because banks are vulnerable to more world economic interconnections and utilize a large level of technology while providing finance and banking services, it is crucial to control operational risk for banks.

Risk Management 40

Risk Management Banking Management Assets 40

Carson Wealth

MARCH 11, 2024

Near bear markets in 2011 and 2018, a 100-year pandemic bear market in 2020 and then another bear market in 2022 made it anything but an easy 15 years. The big “risk” right now is that people continue to underestimate the strength of the economy, even as the consensus moves toward where the economy has actually been since late 2022.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Retirement 96

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The 10-year yield had been rising for a few months on the back of one strong economic data point after another, culminating in the third quarter GDP report, which showed the economy growing at 4.9%. And if economic growth is at risk, the Fed could act even more aggressively. Powell doesn’t sound like someone who wants that.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 96

Carson Wealth

JULY 10, 2023

We continue to hear predictions of a stock market fall and economic recession, but we disagree with both assessments. The S&P 500 has not broken the August 2022 peak, and consumer discretionary is outperforming consumer staples. Headwinds from 2022 are fading, and that’s positive for future returns.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Carson Wealth

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

Economic output regained its pre-pandemic level by the first quarter of 2021, with 8 million fewer workers, which translated to higher productivity per worker. Productivity subsequently fell in 2022, “reversing” the gains from 2020-2021. Quarterly productivity data can be quite noisy, so it helps to broaden the horizon.

Marketing 96

Marketing Marketing Economy Startup 96

Carson Wealth

MAY 22, 2023

Economic data continues to come in strong, including for retail sales and vehicle production. Housing starts and permits data are turning around as builders become more confident about the economic outlook. Housing may no longer be a drag on economic growth the rest of this year. The housing market is showing signs of recovery.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 52

Carson Wealth

DECEMBER 18, 2023

In their updated “ Summary of Economic Projections ,” they revised their estimates of core inflation for 2023 down from 3.7% Markets were off to the races after the Fed released its statement and economic projections. has now raced ahead of other developed markets in economic growth since the pandemic. 31, 2018, through Dec.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Economy Investments 95

Carson Wealth

JULY 8, 2024

In other words, it isn’t easy to find a job if you’re looking for one right now, a very different situation from what we saw in 2021/2022 through early 2023. What’s likely happening is that companies did a lot of hiring in 2021/2022 (maybe too much) and are now easing up. for 7 months now. It averaged 1.2%

Marketing 97

Marketing Marketing Economy Numbers 97

Carson Wealth

MAY 15, 2023

In the face of banking and economic concerns, stocks are holding the line. Stocks tend to lead the economy, so just because the economic headlines are poor now doesn’t mean they will be in the future. Stocks continued to hang tough last week in the face of economic and banking worries. between June 2022 and February 2023.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Food Economy 52

Carson Wealth

JUNE 12, 2023

Now with stocks up 20%, they have officially entered a new bull market and the 2022 bear is over. Carson’s leading economic index indicates the economy is not in a recession. Interestingly, the tide has been shifting recently , as a string of relatively stronger economic data has been reported.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Manufacturing 52

Diamond Consultants

AUGUST 7, 2023

Things like culture, ease of doing business, perceived economics, and firm leadership all play an important role. And through that lens, it’s clear that while Edward Jones continues to add new advisors to its ranks, it’s still struggling to keep pace in the so-called recruiting wars (the firm lost a net 181 experienced advisors in 2022).

Recruitment 52

Recruitment Compliance Budgeting Financial Advisor 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 24, 2023

Market and economic sentiment remain bearish. Housing was a drag on GDP in 2022 and is likely to have been so in the first quarter. Note how popular stocks were relative to bonds in January 2022, just as stocks peaked and entered a vicious bear market. Negative sentiment could be positive for stocks down the road.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Economy Sales 52

Carson Wealth

MARCH 18, 2024

But here’s the big picture: Inflation has eased a lot since June 2022, when it hit 9%. No other category is contributing as much as shelter, and despite the February increase, the contribution from energy prices is nothing compared to what we saw in 2022. CPI inflation for full-service meals rose just 0.1%

Food 96

Food Marketing Marketing Economy 96

Carson Wealth

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

Yes, we remain overweight equities, which is where we have been since December 2022. The good news is that the preponderance of economic data clearly tells us we’re not in a recession right now. Many told us to be fearful and expect summer weakness, but we held firm and expected a nice rally and that fortunately has happened.

Marketing 65

Marketing Marketing Economy Economics 65

Carson Wealth

JUNE 20, 2023

This was the first meeting in which the Fed held back from rate hikes since March 2022. The Fed is (Finally) Acknowledging the Economy’s Resilience Along with interest rate projections, Fed members also updated their economic projections. The higher projection makes sense within the context of the current economic strength.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Food Economy 52

Carson Wealth

APRIL 3, 2023

As good as the labor market is right now, American companies re-shored a record 365,000 manufacturing jobs in 2022. The 2022 number is a 53% increase from 2021, which itself saw a 54% increase from 2020. Electric vehicle batteries were the most active product to be re-shored in 2022! And there’s even more evidence.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Manufacturing Electronics 52