Calculated Risk

JANUARY 22, 2025

Firm billings have now decreased for the majority of firms every month except two since October 2022. The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. Click on graph for larger image.

Clients 270

Clients Investing Investments Numbers 270

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. a year ago (October 2022). a year ago (October 2022). Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% This was up from 3.4%

Economics 328

Economics 328

The Big Picture

JANUARY 4, 2023

UPDATE: Jan 4 2022 10:53am. ” Here is the updated chart: Sources : State Coincident Indexes November 2022 ( PDF ). The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, December 28, 2022. Are State Economic Conditions a Harbinger of a National Recession? St Louis Fed, December 28, 2022. By Kevin L.

Numbers 290

Numbers Banking Economics 290

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), 3rd Quarter 2022. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.7%

Manufacturing 313

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 313

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - were hurt significantly by the pandemic.

Commission 363

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 363

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. 4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate at Lowest Level since at least 1979 This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2022, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% The unemployment rate is down from 4.6%

Economics 306

Economics 306

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2024

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining the evolution in aggregate debt to income ratios and what that suggests about Americans’ ability to manage their debt obligations. Mortgage balances increased by $75 billion from the previous quarter and reached $12.59 trillion at the end of September.

Economics 309

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 309

Calculated Risk

MARCH 28, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for February: Personal income increased $194.7 billion (0.8 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.9 billion (0.4

Food 255

Food Economics 255

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 24, 2023

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2023 Below are my ten questions for 2024 (I've been doing this online every year for almost 20 years!). 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3

Economics 226

Economics Economy Sales Commission 226

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Early in February , I expressed my "increasing concern" about the negative economic impact of "executive / fiscal policy errors", however, I concluded that post by noting that I was not currently on recession watch. In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 7, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in January to 4.48 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in January.

Numbers 179

Numbers Economics 179

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2022 The consensus is for 4.39 million SAAR, down from 4.71 million in September. The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Retail 242

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 242

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons increased by 460,000 to 4.9 The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in February to 4.94 Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9%

Numbers 147

Numbers Economics 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2023

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part 2 • Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-March • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in February • February Housing Starts: Average Length of Time from Start to Completion increased Sharply in 2022 • Q4 Update: Delinquencies, (..)

Economics 258

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 258

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 31, 2025

Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for December: Personal income increased $92.0 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in December , according to estimates released today by the U.S. billion (0.4 billion (0.7

Food 162

Food Economics 162

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. The key point is that, given the current economic uncertainty, there are several ways that advisors can help clients prepare for potential downturns.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2024. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% The Atlanta Fed Wage tracker showed nominal wage growth increased sharply in 2021 and for most of 2022. in July 2022.

Economics 147

Economics Sales Retirement Investing 147

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

CNBC looks into how Atlanta’s recent population and economic growth has negatively affected low-income renters and homebuilders. The Department of Justice has opened an investigation into whether RealPage’s software helped apartment owners coordinate rental rates, reports Multifamily Dive.

Economics 274

Economics 274

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

And even though numerous signs are pointing to the looming possibility of a more widespread economic downturn – including the reduction of household savings, reduced lending, and the resumption of student loan payments for many borrowers – the job market remains strong. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 28, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis Brief excerpt: Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis U.S.

Economics 147

Economics Sales 147

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” The economic collapse during the GFC sent this back over 15 briefly and spiked again during Covid over 10. This is symptomatic of robust demand.”

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 321

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. from October 2022. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 321

Economics Banking Retail Economy 321

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2023

percent) in December , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through December 2022 (2012 dollars). billion (0.2 Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $49.2

Food 354

Food Economics 354

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 25, 2022

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), Second Quarter 2022 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in the first quarter.

Economics 324

Economics Investing Investments 324

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6

Government 333

Government Economics Investing Investments 333

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 13, 2025

The New York Fed also issued an accompanying Liberty Street Economics blog post examining delinquency rates in the auto loan market. said Wilbert van der Klaauw, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. HELOC balances rose by $9 billion to $396 billion, representing the eleventh consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022.

Economics 205

Economics Retail Banking Accounting 205

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through November 2022 (2012 dollars). annual rate in Q3 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1

Food 362

Food Economics 362

Calculated Risk

MAY 26, 2023

percent at a monthly rate) in April , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $79.4

Food 358

Food Economics 358

Calculated Risk

APRIL 26, 2024

percent at a monthly rate) in March , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. percent in June 2022. percent in February 2022. The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for March: Personal income increased $122.0 billion (0.5 billion (0.5 billion (0.8 Real DPI increased 0.2

Food 324

Food Taxes Economics 324

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 1, 2022

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, August 2022 and Annual Update report: Personal income increased $71.6 percent) in August , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August 2022 (2012 dollars).

Food 333

Food Economics 333

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

”1 I was pretty skeptical about Greedflation initially; when i ranked the top 15 sources of US inflation in mid-2022 , “ Corporate Profit Seeking ” was at the bottom, ranked 13 out of 15 inflation causes. In August 2022, Vox suggested that if you were mad about inflation you should blame your local officials.

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358