Advisor Perspectives

DECEMBER 19, 2022

The economic tea leaves suggest that 2023 could be another challenging year for both stocks and bonds. However, the outlook is more balanced given that equity valuations are much lower and bond yields much higher.

Economics 104

Economics Valuation 104

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 21, 2024

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) inched up in February, marking the first monthly increase since February 2022. However, despite the increase, the LEI continues to signals headwinds to economic growth going forward. The index rose 0.1% from last month to 102.8.

Economics 72

Economics 72

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2023

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. a year ago (October 2022). a year ago (October 2022). Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Below 4% The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% This was up from 3.4%

Economics 130

Economics 130

Advisor Perspectives

JANUARY 17, 2023

The team at Infrastructure Capital Advisors provides key insights and advice on current market conditions and economic outlook for this month and the coming months.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing 52

Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The Performance of Multi-Factor Long-Short Portfolios in Various Economic Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect. The Performance of Multi-Factor Long-Short Portfolios in Various Economic Regimes was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Economics 120

Economics Portfolio Investing Investments 120

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” The economic collapse during the GFC sent this back over 15 briefly and spiked again during Covid over 10. This is symptomatic of robust demand.”

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Economy Banking 321

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The large declines in retail sales in December and November signals that consumer spending lost a lot of steam despite some cooling in inflation as we ended 2022. 2) January 26: GDP growth should end 2022 strong The U.S. What we’re watching this week: (pg. economy should expand 3.2 An expected 3.0 points to total growth.

Economics 52

Economics Retail Sales Engineering 52

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Stocks overcame poor earnings results from some of America’s largest companies to post gains last week as investors cheered positive earnings surprises, easing inflation and a rebound in economic growth. Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, October 28, 2022.

Marketing 105

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 105

Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 20, 2022

The post Stronger end to 2022 as consumers continue to drive economic growth appeared first on Nationwide Financial. Following the rate increases in November and December, the yield curve is now fully inverted — a highly reliable leading indicator of a recession.

Economics 52

Economics Economy Marketing Marketing 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 325

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2022

Stocks on Thursday shrugged off news of a second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth to build on Wednesday’s gains as fresh earnings continued to comfort, if not impress, investors. It was the second-consecutive quarter of negative economic growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. CNBC, July 28, 2022.

Marketing 104

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 104

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 26, 2022

Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook, inflation and the labor market on Thursday. -- Monday, November 28th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), 3rd Quarter 2022. The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.7%

Manufacturing 124

Manufacturing Sales Economics Banking 124

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 11, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease in the Second Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.64 The delinquency rate was down 47 basis points from the first quarter of 2022 and down 183 basis points from one year ago. “At

Economics 145

Economics Sales Marketing Marketing 145

Investing Caffeine

JULY 1, 2024

Ever since the Federal Reserve went on a crusade to increase interest rates and slow the progression of inflation at the beginning of 2022, investors have been cheering for a Goldilocks-type of economic “soft landing.” The not-too-hot, not-too-cold economic data have provided comfort to investors.

Economics 52

Economics Marketing Marketing Food 52

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 24, 2022

Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. 4) Mortgage Delinquency Rate at Lowest Level since at least 1979 This graph, based on data from the MBA through Q3 2022, shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due. in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% The unemployment rate is down from 4.6%

Economics 120

Economics 120

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. from October 2022. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 73

Economics Sales Economy Food 73

Advisor Perspectives

SEPTEMBER 13, 2023

Since the beginning of the year, economic data has continued to defy the recession calls of 2022.

Economics 52

Economics 52

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods.

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence the first part of 2022. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022. The sources of turbulence are clear.

Investment Advisor 98

Investment Advisor Banking License Insurance 98

The Big Picture

MAY 24, 2023

This week saw the release of the Fed’s big annual research report, Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022. August 9, 2022) WFH vs RTO (February 16, 2023) The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022) Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022) Source : Economic Well-Being of U.S.

Medical 289

Medical Media Economics Retirement 289

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. While we may not be in a recession yet, economic momentum has clearly slowed. The technical academic answer is we are not in a recession, but we are clearly slowing down economically.

Economics 321

Economics Retail Banking Economy 321

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 16, 2023

”1 I was pretty skeptical about Greedflation initially; when i ranked the top 15 sources of US inflation in mid-2022 , “ Corporate Profit Seeking ” was at the bottom, ranked 13 out of 15 inflation causes. In August 2022, Vox suggested that if you were mad about inflation you should blame your local officials.

Banking 358

Banking Economics Accounting Marketing 358

Park Place Financial

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. million per person in 2022 . 0 Comments.

Estate Planning 52

Estate Planning Economics Planning Financial Planner 52

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage. priceactionlab.com) Streaming Lionsgate ($LGF.A) down from 5.6%

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 19, 2022

Hawkish comments by the Fed and weak economic data heightened investors’ recession concerns and sent stocks lower last week. The potential for higher rates for longer, along with disappointing economic data, particularly a sharp decline in retail sales, amplified fears of a recession and sent stocks lower for the remainder of the week.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, RI includes new single-family structures, multifamily structures, home improvement, Brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs, and a few minor categories (dormitories, manufactured homes). All three sectors - offices, malls, and hotels - were hurt significantly by the pandemic.

Commission 145

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 145

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. theetfeducator.com) IPO proceeds fell off the table in 2022. nytimes.com) Policy Jane C.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 278

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 12, 2022

There was some good news last week on the economic front and out of China, which started to loosen COVID restrictions. But it was a week where good news was considered bad news, as any signs of economic resilience stoked worries of a longer rate-hike cycle. This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, December 9, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 22, 2022

Despite the week’s losses, stocks exhibited resiliency in the face of a string of troubling economic news that included flat retail sales, weak housing numbers, an inversion in the yield curve, and tepid economic data out of China. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022. New Home Sales.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Investor sentiment was also lifted by unexpectedly strong retailer earnings, upside surprises in new economic data, and a better-than-expected consumer sentiment reading. Investors looked past the continuing Covid-related challenges that have stymied China’s economic recovery and its attendant implications for global growth. .

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2022 The consensus is for 4.39 million SAAR, down from 4.71 million in September. The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

Retail 97

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 97

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. Economic Forecasts: What’s the Probability of a Recession in 2024?

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

The stock market edged lower last week as it digested a crosscurrent of conflicting economic data and contrasting comments from Fed officials. The economic picture, however, included some encouraging news as retail sales rose and producer price increases moderated. . This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, November 15, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Best of lists The best finance podcasts of 2022 including 'Masters in Business.' bigtechnology.com) The best podcasts of 2022 including 'Stolen: Surviving St. newyorker.com) Ten of the best podcasts of 2022 including 'Things Fell Apart' by John Ronson.

Media 243

Media Healthcare Economics Management 243

Nationwide Financial

JULY 20, 2022

and its impact on economic growth, George Bernard Shaw’s quote seems apropos. Undeniably, for decades, economists and deficit hawks alike have been debating the merits of rising national debt and weaker economic activity as a result. Economic theory suggests that once the level of national debt surpasses the level of GDP (i.e.,

Economics 59

Economics Budgeting Economy Government 59