Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? For 2022, I used a 2.6%

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

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Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. As a result, uncertainty about how the economy may unfold, even along the shortest time frames, is the default.

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Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. manufacturing sector, by the measures of employment and service prices, has been in a recession for nearly 12 months.

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Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.”

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs in 2022. 2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs in 2022. This makes 2022 the second-best year for job growth in US history, only behind the 6.7

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. This is atypical.

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. Previously : GDP = -0.9% (July 28, 2022).

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The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor.

Food 364

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Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This will be something to watch. annual rate in Q2.

Investing 352

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

If that sounds somewhat counterintuitive, allow me to explain my thought process by looking at five major economic sectors: 1. Shipping : The pandemic lockdown forced the economy to pivot from services to goods; demand soared as people were stuck living – and working – at home. December 9, 2022). October 7, 2022).

Economy 299

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here were my questions from December 2022: 10) Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! The Fed gets it precisely right : Yay!

Economy 295

Economy Economics Valuation Marketing 295

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? New home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2022 in response to higher mortgage rates. Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

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Calculated Risk

MAY 29, 2023

Two examples: not reaching a fiscal agreement and going off the "fiscal cliff" probably would have led to a recession, and Congress refusing to "pay the bills" would have been a policy error that would have taken the economy into recession. See Pandemic Economics, Housing and Monetary Policy: Part I and Part II.

Sales 363

Sales Economy Banking Economics 363

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. consensus — but also included a consumption gain of 4%.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. We don’t know if the Fed is right about anything – Economics is at best a squishy and imperfect soft science. Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). October 7, 2022).

Economy 352

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The recession callers were back in the first half of 2022, and some like ARK's Cathie Wood and Home Depot's Ken Langone claimed the US was already in a recession. We did see negative real GDP growth in Q1 and in Q2 - but that didn't mean the US economy was in a recession (and this has never been the definition of a US recession).

Sales 363

Sales Economy Economics Investments 363

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

What does this rock traversing through the vast emptiness of space have to do with economic expansion, corporate revenues & profits, inflation, or interest rates? 2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. Alas, utterly nothing. Historically, SPX averages about 8% with dividends.

Economy 328

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 328

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. morningstar.com) Economy November PCE came in at 3.2% bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage.

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 278

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. theetfeducator.com) IPO proceeds fell off the table in 2022. nytimes.com) Policy Jane C.

Financial Advising 278

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: economic forecasts.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

The Big Picture

MARCH 6, 2025

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162

Economy Economics Food Banking 162

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. But this does not mean the Fed should inflict pain on millions of people (especially those earning at or below median wages ) because they are waiting for an update to an economic model.

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

And it was a miserable economic time, with both of these elevated measures together creating a period of unhappy people that the Misery index neatly captured. As Zunbrun observes, “ The Misery Index, as commonly constructed, doesn’t adequately capture how overall economic conditions affect attitudes.”. November 7, 2022).

Economics 325

Economics Budgeting Economy Taxes 325

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

2000-13 : Secular bear market did not make new highs until March 2013 2018 : ~20% pullback as the economy slowed, FOMC hiked. 2020 : Pandemic crash of 34%, fastest top fall (but fastest recovery) 2022 : Stocks & bonds both down double digits since 1981 All of these meet the unofficial definition of a bear of a 20% move off of the peak.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

wsj.com) How economic sanctions are hitting the Russian economy. nytimes.com) Economy The economic schedule for the coming week. paulgraham.com) Some favorite 2022 books from FT critics including "The Good-Enough Life" Avram Alpert. (theatlantic.com) How H-1b workers help the U.S. cnn.com) How the U.S.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Economy Economics Media 245

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2022

In September, most participants expected seventeen 25bp rate hikes in 2022. Current Wall Street forecasts are for GDP to increase slightly in 2022 Q4 over Q4 in line with FOMC projections. in 2022 (4Q/4Q) and expect growth to slow to -0.9% June 2022 1.5 June 2022 1.5 June 2022 3.6 June 2022 5.0

Banking 345

Banking Communication Economy Economics 345

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 Previously : Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022). Nominal GDP is plus 7.8%

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 2, 2022. From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.8

Economy 353

Economy Economics Marketing Marketing 353

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

If these two markets appear to be suggesting two different future economic results, it is more likely a reflection of those investor differences than a result of markets collectively forecasting two different things. August 15, 2022). Shift Your Perspective (July 22, 2022). The Uncertainty Monster (July 21, 2022).

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