The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Still, I cannot help but observe that the FOMC response to pandemic-induced inflation is blunt, excessive and unnecessarily painful to the middle and lower economic earners. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022).

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 Or will the economy lose jobs? Or will the economy lose jobs?

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. The entire discussion is worth watching, but the video below is teed up for the economic forecasting discussion. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? Previously : Slowing U.S.

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Trade Brains

SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

And now the world’s 2nd largest economy is experiencing a fall after the covid lockdown recovery. 2023 was supposed to be China’s economic comeback year. It is also not shocking that China is reducing the release of lots of public economic data. And this is not the first time China’s economy has run into trouble.

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Nationwide Financial

APRIL 24, 2023

The latest batch of economic data continue to signal that a recession is on the horizon — we still foresee a downturn unfolding in the second half of the year. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) posted its 12th straight monthly decline, falling to its lowest level since November 2020. from a year ago. jump in February.

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. morningstar.com) Economy November PCE came in at 3.2% bonddad.blogspot.com) Economic growth is trending around 2.0% (econbrowser.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Podcast links: extreme arbitrage.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

If that sounds somewhat counterintuitive, allow me to explain my thought process by looking at five major economic sectors: 1. Shipping : The pandemic lockdown forced the economy to pivot from services to goods; demand soared as people were stuck living – and working – at home. December 9, 2022). October 7, 2022).

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When the Economic Policy Institute analyzed this, they discovered: “Since the trough of the COVID-19 recession in the second quarter of 2020, overall prices in the NFC [non-financial corps] sector have risen at an annualized rate of 6.1%—a Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023?

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. Previously : GDP = -0.9% (July 28, 2022).

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

I have been fairly vocal that inflation has peaked , the Fed has already overtightened, and they run the risk of doing too much economic damage fighting a demon that has already been exorcised. Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! The Fed gets it precisely right : Yay!

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Nationwide Financial

DECEMBER 20, 2022

After a solid third quarter, the economy could be poised for even faster growth in the fourth quarter in deference to the sharp rate tightening by the Fed. The post Stronger end to 2022 as consumers continue to drive economic growth appeared first on Nationwide Financial.

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Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 23, 2023

The large declines in retail sales in December and November signals that consumer spending lost a lot of steam despite some cooling in inflation as we ended 2022. 2) January 26: GDP growth should end 2022 strong The U.S. economy should expand 3.2 What we’re watching this week: (pg. An expected 3.0 points to total growth.

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Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 28, 2023

The spike in job creation and consumer spending in January showed that the slower trend of economic growth at the end of 2022 did not carry into the new year. The post The economy remains hot, likely too hot for the Fed appeared first on Nationwide Financial.

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The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

The least contentious of which is that modest increases in minimum wages increase economic activity and create jobs. I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor.

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: economic forecasts.

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2022

Undaunted by another Fed rate hike and news of a contracting economy, the stock market rallied last week on better-than-expected corporate earnings. Powell indicated that it might become appropriate to slow the pace of future hikes, and he didn’t believe the economy had entered into recession. Economy Contracts . Factory Orders.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here were my questions from December 2022: 10) Question #10 for 2023: Will inventory increase further in 2023?

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Nationwide Financial

FEBRUARY 20, 2023

While we ended 2022 on a soft note, 2023 is beginning with much more core strength. Even with a dour long term economic outlook, consumers should continue to spend as long as the labor market remains tight. Business spending increased, but only modestly and residential investment was extremely weak in Q4. percent overall and 5.6

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. This is atypical.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. It is difficult to look at these 6 (or 7) data points honestly and draw the conclusion that the nation’s economic activity in the first half shrunk. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? Econbrowser August 26, 2022. Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? For 2022, I used a 2.6%

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Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

wsj.com) How economic sanctions are hitting the Russian economy. nytimes.com) Economy The economic schedule for the coming week. paulgraham.com) Some favorite 2022 books from FT critics including "The Good-Enough Life" Avram Alpert. (theatlantic.com) How H-1b workers help the U.S. cnn.com) How the U.S.

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Investing Caffeine

JULY 1, 2024

Ever since the Federal Reserve went on a crusade to increase interest rates and slow the progression of inflation at the beginning of 2022, investors have been cheering for a Goldilocks-type of economic “soft landing.” move thanks to the contribution of older economy stocks. Last month, this narrative remained intact.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. consensus — but also included a consumption gain of 4%.

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The Big Picture

APRIL 25, 2024

A quick note on the state of the economy in light of some recent data. economic strength.” The economy remains robust, inflation is more of a housing issue with some services concerns thrown in. That lagged economists’ consensus of 2.4%. However, it’s not quite all it appears. Business investment grew at a 2.9%

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Abnormal Returns

OCTOBER 22, 2023

arstechnica.com) Economy Another chart crime debunked. ritholtz.com) The apartment economy continues to loosen. calculatedrisk.substack.com) The economic schedule for the coming week. om.co) Alex Kantrowitz, "Since Musk bought the company in October 2022, it’s lost approximately 13% of its daily active users."

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Cornerstone Financial Advisory

OCTOBER 31, 2022

Stocks overcame poor earnings results from some of America’s largest companies to post gains last week as investors cheered positive earnings surprises, easing inflation and a rebound in economic growth. Meanwhile, positive earnings surprises from “old economy” companies powered markets higher. Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

I run through 30 charts in 30 minutes that explain where we are in the economic cycle, what markets are doing, and what it means to their portfolios. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic. 2 Regardless, something is amiss. Atlantic, Oct.

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Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. theetfeducator.com) IPO proceeds fell off the table in 2022. nytimes.com) Policy Jane C.

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James Hendries

SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May.1 1 Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.” Business Cycle Dating.

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Nationwide Financial

JULY 20, 2022

and its impact on economic growth, George Bernard Shaw’s quote seems apropos. Undeniably, for decades, economists and deficit hawks alike have been debating the merits of rising national debt and weaker economic activity as a result. Economic theory suggests that once the level of national debt surpasses the level of GDP (i.e.,

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Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

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The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

Laurence Ball, Professor of Economics at Johns Hopkins and Research Associate at the National Bureau Of Economic Research, made the case in 2013 that 4% was a more rational target. The economy was sluggish, job creation as weak, consumer spending was soft. 4 Consider : We had 2% inflation expectations the entire post-GFC era.

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Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for this year: Ten Economic Questions for 2024. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2.6% How much will the economy grow in 2024? New home sales and single-family starts turned down in 2022 in response to higher mortgage rates. Q4-over-Q4 in 2024.

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James Hendries

JULY 13, 2022

We may not be flying into a storm, but there’s been plenty of turbulence the first part of 2022. How businesses, households, and central banks steer through the rough air will set the tone for markets over the second half of 2022. The sources of turbulence are clear.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

during 2022. in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years.

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