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Nobody Knows Anything, Dot Plot Edition

The Big Picture

When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else. They may be terrible economic forecasters but give them credit for not burying bad predictions like so many on Wall Street tend to do. Go to the Fed’s website, and search for “ Summary of Economic Projections.”

Economics 325
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At the Money: Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President on Tariffs, Inflation and Monetary Policy

The Big Picture

How should investors view the relationship between trade policy and inflation in the current economic environment? Gwinn Professor of Economics Masters in Business (coming soon) ~~~ Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here , and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts , YouTube , Spotify , and Bloomberg. What was it about?

Economy 162
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Question #6 for 2023: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 6) Monetary Policy: In response to the increase in inflation, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from "0 to 1/4 percent" in January 2022, to "4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent" in December. What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2023?

Economy 236
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Friday links: a complex reality

Abnormal Returns

Markets No matter how you measure it, 2022 is one of the worst years for bonds in history. theirrelevantinvestor.com) A proper asset allocation is a precondition to avoid market-related panic. theirrelevantinvestor.com) A proper asset allocation is a precondition to avoid market-related panic. year-over-year.

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Best Financial Markets To Trade in 2024 – Top Trading Markets

Trade Brains

Best Financial Markets to Trade : Are you looking to explore the best financial markets to trade in 2024? It is obvious that we may occasionally get confused in our decision-making when faced with the many different pieces of advice regarding financial planning, trading, and investments. What are Financial Markets?

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FOMC Minutes: Participants continued to anticipate ongoing rate increases

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, December 13–14, 2022. In light of the heightened uncertainty regarding the outlooks for both inflation and real economic activity, most participants emphasized the need to retain flexibility and optionality when moving policy to a more restrictive stance.

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Slower momentum heading into 2023

Nationwide Financial

Key Takeaways: Economic Review: Demand for workers supports resilient labor market. Financial Markets: Nervousness about 2023 increases investor anxiety. 2022 provided investors with no place to hide. Long treasuries fell by nearly 30 percent while equities flirted with a bear market for much of the year.

Economy 98