Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2022 The consensus is for a 0.2% The consensus is for 4.39

Retail 242

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 242

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 6.74 The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. However, seasonal retail hiring was down in 2022.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 3, 2023

million jobs added, 2022 was the 2nd best year for job growth in US history behind only 2021 with 7.27 The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% With revisions: The 4.81

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% Year-over-year wage growth will likely slow further next month since wage growth was strong in July 2022. YoY in June.

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

Calculated Risk

MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 3.9

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.6% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

Nerd's Eye View

OCTOBER 4, 2023

People often talk about "the economy" as a single entity whose parts move in unison, with a small number of key indicators (such as GDP, the unemployment rate, and inflation) moving reliably in relation to each other. And even though U.S.

Valuation 246

Valuation Economics Economy Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

Calculated Risk

MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.6% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

Nerd's Eye View

JANUARY 3, 2024

The sentiment is especially poignant when it comes to economic forecasting, as it's nearly impossible to get an accurate picture of the current state of the economy at any given moment. Businesses are also feeling the pinch from higher interest rates, as November saw a rapid increase in the number of Chapter 11 commercial bankruptcies.

Economics 246

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

When I put together my list of what was to blame for inflation , corporate profit-seeking was number (13 of 15). Traditional economic consensus used to be inflation occurred when too many dollars chased too few goods. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022).

Economics 336

Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.2% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.3% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022). This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in November to 3.99 YoY in November. million from 4.28

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. from October 2022. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 189

Economics Sales Economy Food 189

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

As our discussions last week suggested, most of the falloff in Goods inflation began in the middle of 2022; elevated prices in wages, autos, housing, and energy are primarily driven by a lack of workers, a shortage of semiconductors, and a tiny supply of single-family homes (elevated energy prices are war related). October 7, 2022).

Economics 312

Economics Retail Banking Economy 312

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in November. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

Retirement 327

Retirement Manufacturing Numbers Economics 327

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 11, 2023

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. 4) Participation Rate: In December 2022, the overall participation rate was at 62.3%, up year-over-year from 62.0% 4) Participation Rate: In December 2022, the overall participation rate was at 62.3%, up year-over-year from 62.0%

Economics 289

Economics Sales Retirement Numbers 289

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2024

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients 323

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 323

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. FRBNY, Center for Microeconomic Data (August 2022 Data).

Risk Tolerance 334

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 334

Calculated Risk

APRIL 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was close to expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 17,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.2% The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in March to 4.102 million from 4.067 million in February.

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 4, 2023

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was slightly below expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 49,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.0

Numbers 246

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 246

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. Instead of most states showing expansion, before recessions, that will drop to 45, 40, then 35 before a recession begins; eventually, the number of expanding states then fall to 10, 5, or 0.

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

The institutional component was varied, experiencing growth in recreational and education projects, countered by a decline in the number of healthcare and public planning projects. Specific nonresidential segments, such as data centers and life science laboratories, have thrived in 2022 and continue to support strength in planning activity.

Healthcare 313

Healthcare Education Planning Numbers 313

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Previously : Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Calculated Risk

JUNE 26, 2024

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.

Clients 320

Clients Numbers Economics Investing 320

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361