Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Lists 9 surprising things that happened in 2022 including 'The Federal Reserve opening pushed for the stock market to fall.' awealthofcommonsense.com) 4 mistakes from 2022 including the idea of more funds equaling more diversification. morningstar.com) 35 ideas from 2022 including 'Long term investing is hard.'

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Valuation Media Economy 243

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and August and September payrolls were revised down by 112,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6

Retail 109

Retail Numbers Economics Sales 109

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.0% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons changed little at 4.6

Numbers 120

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 120

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This brings us to the chart: The one above shows the traffic of prospective buyers looking at a new home (2014- 2022); the one below goes back to the 1980s. Aspirational Pricing (May 25, 2022). This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2023

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2023). Another example from last year: In December 2022, housing inventory was very low, but increasing quickly, and house prices were declining month-to-month , and I expected prices to decline slightly in 2023. from October 2022. Inventory was up 3.0%

Economics 73

Economics Sales Economy Food 73

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2022

pionline.com) The number of different ETF issuers in the U.S. etf.com) Books The five best economic history books of 2022 including "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century". fivebooks.com) The best fiction of 2022 including "Wolf Den" by Elodie Harper. by Brad DeLong.

Financial Advising 219

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 219

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

As our discussions last week suggested, most of the falloff in Goods inflation began in the middle of 2022; elevated prices in wages, autos, housing, and energy are primarily driven by a lack of workers, a shortage of semiconductors, and a tiny supply of single-family homes (elevated energy prices are war related). October 7, 2022).

Economics 310

Economics Retail Economy Banking 310

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. ft.com) The best books of 2022 including "Trust" by Hernan Diaz.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

That you can tank up in 2024 for $50-75 is an economic miracle, but people still love to complain about gas prices. For most of us who are not regularly crunching the numbers in spreadsheets, it may not feel that way. Houses are another legitimate and big complaint. We have discussed in the past how this is primarily a supply issue.

Economics 320

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 320

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

We currently see none of the pre-recession warnings that are typical before economic contractions. Instead of most states showing expansion, before recessions, that will drop to 45, 40, then 35 before a recession begins; eventually, the number of expanding states then fall to 10, 5, or 0.

Economy 302

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 302

The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2023

It is one of those round numbers that people just kinda made up and started with for no apparent reason. But the 2% inflation target is LITERALLY a random number 2 that originated in New Zealand in the 1980s. If there was something magical about 2% as the ideal balance between prices and jobs, that would be one thing.

Economy 246

Economy Economics Numbers Banking 246

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? Will the economic slowdown continue into 2023? It’s hard to extrapolate much worse than a modest economic contraction from where we are today.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 26, 2023

tker.co) A link to the 2022 Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) institutionalinvestor.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is increasing the number of same-day shipping options. Sentencing Commission show judges rejected more than 80% of compassionate release requests filed from October 2019 through September 2022. annual shareholder report.

Ethics 243

Ethics License Financial Advising Startup 243

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2022

The key economic reports this week are October Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. 10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for October 2022 The consensus is for a 0.2% The consensus is for 4.39

Retail 97

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 97

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.6% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons rose by 346,000 to 4.6

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Payrolls vs Employment Since March 2022 Nonfarm Payrolls: +2,692,000 Employment Level: +12,000 Full Time Employment: -398,000 Employment fell by 138,000 in November. The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls.

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2023

Meaning, you do not get the 8-10% long-term gains without living through a significant number of market events, ranging from cyclical drawdowns to longer secular bear markets, and full-on crashes. The first bear I experienced was utterly meaningless economically but still felt bad. In fact, it felt horrible.

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Economics Portfolio 336

Calculated Risk

JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.4

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.8

Numbers 108

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 108

Park Place Financial

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Estates Estate Planning in this Economic Climate Schedule a Complimentary Financial Review CLICK HERE TO SCHEDULE. Between inflation, increasing interest rates, federal changes to monetary policies, and global conflict, many factors are putting a strain on the current economic situation. million per person in 2022 . 0 Comments.

Estate Planning 52

Estate Planning Economics Planning Financial Planner 52

Calculated Risk

MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.9% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.5

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

A cooling inflation number ignited a powerful rally on Thursday, sending stocks to strong gains for the week. Both numbers were below market expectations of 0.6% A look behind the numbers shows that October’s 7.7% This Week: Key Economic Data. Index of Leading Economic Indicators. CNBC, November 10, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

The Big Picture

JUNE 22, 2023

Source: FRED Wealth disparities get ever more lopsided the higher up the economic strata you climb; there is more disparity with the top 1% than the top 10%, but the biggest spreads are at the top 0.1% (and above). Consider the chart at top, created by Invictus via FRED. Let’s Talk About the 0.01 Percent By Howard R.

Distribution 304

Distribution Assets Economics Numbers 304

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

DECEMBER 12, 2022

There was some good news last week on the economic front and out of China, which started to loosen COVID restrictions. But it was a week where good news was considered bad news, as any signs of economic resilience stoked worries of a longer rate-hike cycle. This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, December 9, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Calculated Risk

APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.1% Part Time for Economic Reasons From the BLS report : " The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.3

Numbers 126

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 126

The Big Picture

MAY 5, 2023

Rather than accept the volatility of month-to-month economic datapoints — NFP, Consumer Spending, Manufacturing, Inflation, etc. Instead, there is a tendency to put too much weight onto the numbers themselves, encouraging a variety of changes and modifications to portfolios due to whatever the latest data suggests.

Economics 363

Economics Financial Planning Manufacturing Numbers 363

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

JULY 11, 2022

In a holiday-shortened trading week, stocks rallied despite mixed economic data and vacillating energy prices and bond yields. Technology shares were the week’s big winners as investors appear to have turned to companies with earnings growth potential during a weakening economic environment. This Week: Key Economic Data.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2022

Consider : Questioning investors as to their risk tolerance does not typically result in an accurate description of their true tolerance for drawdowns and lower returns; instead, we get a number highly dependent upon the performance of equity markets over the prior three to six months. FRBNY, Center for Microeconomic Data (August 2022 Data).

Risk Tolerance 333

Risk Tolerance Budgeting Numbers Banking 333

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

Instead, the elevated inflation number not only undercut those easing hopes but raised the possibility of a more significant rate hike. That number was well above the 5.9% This Week: Key Economic Data. Thursday: Index of Leading Economic Indicators. The Wall Street Journal, September 16, 2022. year-over-year.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. YoY in March 2022 and was at 4.4% Year-over-year wage growth will likely slow further next month since wage growth was strong in July 2022. YoY in June.

Numbers 124

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 124

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

AUGUST 22, 2022

Despite the week’s losses, stocks exhibited resiliency in the face of a string of troubling economic news that included flat retail sales, weak housing numbers, an inversion in the yield curve, and tepid economic data out of China. This Week: Key Economic Data. The Wall Street Journal, August 19, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 3, 2023

economy appears to be in the late stage of expansion, with strong economic activity but labor and supply chains remain constrained. in November and a wide gap between the number of job openings and unemployed persons seeking work, roughly two-to-one, according to the most recent data release. in the medium term.

Economics 59

Economics Marketing Marketing Economy 59

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

Investor sentiment was also lifted by unexpectedly strong retailer earnings, upside surprises in new economic data, and a better-than-expected consumer sentiment reading. Investors looked past the continuing Covid-related challenges that have stymied China’s economic recovery and its attendant implications for global growth. .

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Economics Taxes 59

Cornerstone Financial Advisory

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

The stock market edged lower last week as it digested a crosscurrent of conflicting economic data and contrasting comments from Fed officials. The economic picture, however, included some encouraging news as retail sales rose and producer price increases moderated. . This Week: Key Economic Data. CNBC, November 15, 2022.

Marketing 59

Marketing Marketing Taxes Economics 59

Nationwide Financial

JANUARY 30, 2023

Headline real GDP growth remained solid in the fourth quarter underpinning a rebound in the second half of 2022 that more than recovered the decline recorded in the first half of the year. Hear more in our podcast “GDP growth ended 2022 with an unhealthy mix (15 min)”. Key Takeaways: What we learned last week: (pg.

Economics 52

Economics Manufacturing Numbers Education 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2023

Did the palpable panic in June/October 2022 lead to ill-advised sell(s)? Recall John Kenneth Galbraith’s observation: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” Some folks who are more familiar with the numbers than I have suggested it will not be pretty. The reason?

Economics 246

Economics Valuation Marketing Marketing 246

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic. By any measure, we still have an enormous number of unfilled positions. Previously : Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Medicine 330

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 330