The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent.

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The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. But if Stagflation is your reason for being negative, you run into a similar problem: Growth has been robust, unemployment low, and inflation is way below its June 2022 highs.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. This is the reason why a $20 trillion, complex global economy with so many different moving parts cannot rely on an oversimplified and dumbed down definition 1 — like two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? by Menzie Chinn.

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Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation. It’s natural to see a correlation between when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, and inflation peaking soon after. December 9, 2022).

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

during 2022. in Q4 2023 – up ~36% since the October 2022 lows, and up 24.2% While some folks are suggesting that this is “Too far too fast,” I suggest putting it into context: As the chart above shows, the S&P 500 has been ~flat since its November 2021 peak, and essentially flat over 2022-23 calendar years.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

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Economy 317

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

However, they are significant — and rising rates this year have been a headwind for both equities and the economy. But the -23% of the SPX may not be the biggest story of 2022: The single most important change has been the end of the bond bull market that dates back to 1981. 1 and 2 are good, I suspect 3 is problematic.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S. Economy in 2022 was $25,439.70B; in 2009, it was $14,478.06B; ignore that also? That none of these things occurred makes me wonder why we still pay attention to these deficit hawks. population? Do we just ignore that?

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

Generally speaking, high-profit margins are not a sign of an economy that is overheating. Economic Policy Institute, April 21, 2022). Fed should make clear that rising profit margins are spurring inflation (FT, November 2, 2022). The truth about inflation (Popular Information, November 7, 2022). October 7, 2022).

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Economics Economy Retail Numbers 336

The Big Picture

APRIL 9, 2024

As the charts above show, the economy on a state-by-state basis has markedly improved from Q4 2023’s softening. Since it’s been a few months, I thought we could take a quick look at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators out for both January and February 2024.1 ” The 12-month change is +2.9%

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Banking Manufacturing Economy 306

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2022

Inflation is vanquished, the economy makes a soft landing, rainbows and sprinkles and unicorns! Parts of the economy suffer – notably residential real estate, new job creation, and consumer spending. This is why I put a 50% probability of markets finding a bottom sometime between October 2022 and March 2023. August 15, 2022).

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 6, 2022

Job Openings: Total Nonfarm : Consider how many jobs remain unfilled today and you have a sense of so many other issues in this economy: Supply chain snarlls, leading to goods shortages, leading to inflation, etc. Previously : The Great Resignation Is Long Over (July 27, 2022). bottoming in June 1953 at 2.5%. Any suggestions?

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Economy Insurance Marketing Marketing 331

The Big Picture

JANUARY 12, 2023

Shipping : The pandemic lockdown forced the economy to pivot from services to goods; demand soared as people were stuck living – and working – at home. Not surprisingly as economies re-opened, the demand for shipping containers for goods plummeted, along with prices reflected in the Baltic Dry Index and shipping costs.

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 30, 2022

A perfect way to end the 2022 annus horriblis is to remind readers that not just individual stocks, but entire sectors fall in and out of favor. The S&P acts as a snapshot that illuminates which companies and industries are the largest in the economy at any given time. Source: QAD Blog.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

This week, we speak with Kyla Scanlon , creator, host of YouTube’s,“Let’s Appreciate” podcast , writer of daily short-form videos about economy + markets. Her new book “ In This Economy?: Cutter has put-up impressive numbers since its 2022 launch, and now manages more than $500 million in institutional assets.

Healthcare 294

Healthcare Economy Numbers Assets 294

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 2, 2024

capitalspectator.com) 2023 was a welcome respite from 2022, market-wise. albertbridgecapital.com) Strategy 10 predictions for 2024 including 'The economy overheats.' theinformation.com) Economy State coincident indicators show a slowing economy. Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2023.

Financial Advising 286

Financial Advising Economy Media Assets 286

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2023

Markets Just how bad was the 2022-23 bond drawdown? ft.com) Why you should look at returns from 2022-23 as a whole. morningstar.com) Economy November PCE came in at 3.2% priceactionlab.com) Streaming Lionsgate ($LGF.A) is splitting Starz from its studio business. axios.com) What would a Warner Bros. down from 5.6% at the peak.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Media Economy Economics 279

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

However, this will only be known in the fullness of time, after inflation is tamed and the economy does not suffer too greatly from the cure. Previously : Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). When Your Only Tool is a Hammer (November 1, 2022). October 7, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022).

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

JANUARY 3, 2023

Holding onto expectations of major shifts in key drivers of the markets and the economy – merely due to the changing of the calendar – is a carryover from the days when the calendar mattered much more. 2022 can be understood as part of that process. through January 4, 2022. Alas, utterly nothing.

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy. See also : State Coincident Indexes ( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia , July 27, 2022). Previously : GDP = -0.9% (July 28, 2022). Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Economics 321

Economics Retail Banking Economy 321

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 19, 2023

” 1 The second issue is simply how astounding survey data has been over the past decade; e.g., people’s self-reported emotional state in 2022 was worse than the very worst events of the past few decades. The economy is not on the right track, even as Americans’ Net Worth Surged by Most in Decades During Pandemic.

Media 351

Media Economy Economics Wealth Management 351

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 4, 2023

Markets 15 charts that explain 2022 returns. morningstar.com) 2022 was a good year for value. alhambrapartners.com) Commodities Managed futures returns in 2022 were front-end loaded. concoda.substack.com) Companies Google ($GOOGL) and Meta's ($META) share of digital advertising fell below 50% in 2022.

Financial Advising 265

Financial Advising Advertising Budgeting Economy 265

The Big Picture

MAY 3, 2023

“ The long and variable lag of monetary policy ” is a complex phrase that suggests ambiguity about when, where, and how higher rates manifest in a large and interconnected economy like that of the United States. The truth is we simply don’t know.

Economy 353

Economy 353

The Big Picture

AUGUST 19, 2022

August 15, 2022). Shift Your Perspective (July 22, 2022). The Uncertainty Monster (July 21, 2022). Who Is to Blame for Inflation, 1-15 (June 28, 2022). But rational people can reasonably disagree on anything market-related — after all, someone has to be on the other side of your trade. James Mackintosh.

Marketing 321

Marketing Marketing Risk Tolerance Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 27, 2024

nytimes.com) How China plans to boost the economy. sherwood.news) Economy Lower interest rates do not guarantee a soft landing. wsj.com) Do you remember the 'recession' of 2022? (sherwood.news) China The bounce back in Chinese stocks this week was impressive. axios.com) On a year-over-year basis, PCE inflation is 2.2%.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Food Economy Media 279

The Big Picture

MAY 10, 2023

To get back to 2% inflation target, the economy would need some combination of ZIRP, or higher unemployment, or more than a mild recession. I expect this will continue to fall over the next few months and is likely to have a 3 handle before Christmas, maybe even Halloween.

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Government Economy 304

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 23, 2022

ft.com) The 2022 fundraising scene is completely different than the prior 11 years. cbsnews.com) Economy Is crude oil losing its salience as an economic indicator? awealthofcommonsense.com) What falling tax withholding numbers say about the state of the economy. ft.com) The best books of 2022 including "Trust" by Hernan Diaz.

Financial Advising 245

Financial Advising Advertising Economy Economics 245

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 Previously : Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

Calculated Risk

APRIL 13, 2023

Earliler the Census Bureau released the population estimates for July 2022 by age, and I've updated the table from the previous post. The table below shows the top 10 cohorts by size for 2010, 2022 (released recently), and the most recent Census Bureau projections for 2030. population by age in July 2022 according to the Census Bureau.

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Economy Numbers 145

The Big Picture

APRIL 27, 2023

Together they paint a fascinating picture of an economy robust enough to withstand the fastest set of rate increases in history, but also one that is showing signs of slowing. Previously : The Tide of Price over Volume (April 21, 2023) Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022) Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 304

Economy Economics Banking Numbers 304

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 1, 2023

We talked about how you should think about Wall Street forecasts about the economy. Economy, State by State (November 22, 2023) Can Economists Predict Recessions? September 29, 2023) Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Source : U.S. Previously : Slowing U.S.

Economy 288

Economy Economics Portfolio Marketing 288

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 1, 2023

Markets Global stocks and bonds lost more than $30 trillion for 2022. finance.yahoo.com) Apple ($AAPL) lost $846 billion in market cap in 2022. marketwatch.com) 2022 was a big year for ETFs, except for a spot Bitcoin ETF. theetfeducator.com) IPO proceeds fell off the table in 2022. nytimes.com) Policy Jane C.

Financial Advising 279

Financial Advising Medical Economics Media 279

The Big Picture

JANUARY 18, 2023

Today, the Producer Price Index and Consumer Retail Sales both showed the economy is decelerating and not on an inflation-adjusted basis. Supply Chain Is 40% of Inflation (November 17, 2022). Behind the Curve, Part V (November 3, 2022). October 7, 2022). How the Fed Causes (Model) Inflation (October 25, 2022).

Economics 312

Economics Retail Economy Banking 312

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 145

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 145

Abnormal Returns

JANUARY 3, 2023

Markets How major asset classes performed in December 2022. capitalspectator.com) 2022 was the third worst year for the 60/40 portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) The Dow lead the major indices in 2022. in 2022 vs. 2021. nytimes.com) The UK has 'deconverged' from the rest of the global economy. etf.com) Global U.S.

Startup 242

Startup Valuation Financial Advising Distribution 242

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Payroll jobs in the nation remained essentially flat from March through June 2022 after adjusting for QCEW data. employment for the bulk of 2022.

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Even as inflation peaked in June of 2022 and fell from 9% to 3%, people remained angry. Oh, and the economy would have hurtled into the worst depression since the Great Depression of 1929. Recall that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now in June 2020 showed the economy had been cut in half, down -52.8%.

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Government Medicine Economy Healthcare 306