Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 345

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 345

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 7, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 343

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 343

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

The Coincident State Indexes for October 2022 snuck out last week right before Thanksgiving. The economy is slowing, and some states are doing great, some okay, some less so. Previously : Signs of Softening (July 29, 2022). Why Recessions Matter to Investors (July 11, 2022). Soft Landing RIP (July 25, 2022).

Banking 279

Banking Economy 279

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2022). As an example, when the pandemic hit, I switched from being mostly positive on the economy to calling a recession in early March 2020. Here is a graph from Realtor.com showing active inventory through November 2022. This was correct.

Economics 285

Economics Sales Banking Economy 285

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 10, 2024

2) Employment: Through November 2023, the economy added 2.6 million jobs added in 2022, and 7.3 Or will the economy lose jobs? The bad news - for job growth - is that a combination of a slowing economy, demographics and a labor market near full employment suggests fewer jobs will be added in 2024. million jobs in 2023.

Economy 298

Economy Manufacturing Economics Sales 298

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 22, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 297

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 297

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

In 2022, both new home sales and single-family starts turned down in response to higher mortgage rates. An exception for this data series was the mid '60s when the Vietnam buildup kept the economy out of recession. The YoY change in new home sales in late 2022 and early 2023 suggested a possible recession.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 13, 2023

1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021. How much will the economy grow in 2023? Defaulting on the debt with an already weak economy will likely push the economy into recession. For 2022, I used a 2.6% 2022 1 2.0%

Economy 278

Economy Sales Economics Investing 278

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 265

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 265

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 31, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 264

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 264

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 29, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 263

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 263

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 26, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 5, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 17, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 244

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 244

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 10, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 15, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 245

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 245

Calculated Risk

JULY 25, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 246

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 246

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 16, 2023

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Fourth Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.96 The delinquency rate was up 51 basis points from the third quarter of 2022 but still down 69 basis points from one year ago.

Economy 246

Economy Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 28, 2022

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2022 Below are my ten questions for 2023 (I've been doing this every year for over a decade!). economy will perform in 2023, and if there are surprises - like in 2020 - to adjust my thinking. How much will the economy grow in 2023? million jobs in 2022. in early 2022.

Economics 347

Economics Economy Sales Commission 347

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 6, 2023

million SAAR in December 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), down 6.3% Light vehicle sales in 2022 were at 13.73 Sales in 2022 were impacted significantly by supply chain disruptions, and sales were still down 19% from the 2019 level. The dashed line is the December 2022 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR).

Sales 237

Sales Economy 237

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 28, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 237

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 237

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 231

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 231

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 12, 2023

2) Employment: The economy added 4.5 million jobs in 2022. This makes 2022 the second-best year for job growth in US history, only behind the 6.7 Or will the economy lose jobs? If the Fed drives the economy into recession (to cool inflation), then we could see job losses in 2023. Or will the economy lose jobs?

Economy 235

Economy Economics Sales Numbers 235

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 225

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 225

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 217

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 217

Calculated Risk

MARCH 7, 2025

economy continues to be in a good place. Recent Economic Data Economic growth The economy has been growing at a solid pace. Inflation Inflation has come down a long way from its mid-2022 peak above 7 percent without a sharp increase in unemploymenta historically unusual and most welcome outcome. Policy is not on a preset course.

Economics 162

Economics Economy Food Communication 162

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

Most observers of the economy assumed the answer to his question was “some amount,” but I believe di Giovanni and his co-authors are the first to quantify it: “Our analysis of the relative importance of supply-side versus demand-side factors finds 60 percent of U.S. Liberty Street Economics, August 24, 2022). November 7, 2022).

Medicine 363

Medicine Medical Economics Economy 363

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. Sure, RRE/CRE is a huge part of the economy, so its health is always important. But for the purposes of our discussion about the state of the economy and rising interest rates, Real Estate is where the rubber meets the road. This is atypical.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting Economy Taxes Numbers 363

The Big Picture

AUGUST 10, 2022

US Economy Facing Growth Recession. ?. Source: Bloomberg , August 9th, 2022. Bloomberg, August 8, 2022. August 9, 2022). The Trouble with Consumer Sentiment (July 8, 2022). Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022). Sentiment LOL (May 17, 2022). Too Many Bears (May 3, 2022). by Matthew A.

Wealth Management 306

Wealth Management Economy Management Investing 306

The Big Picture

MAY 4, 2023

I have been nurturing a pet thesis as to why higher minimum wages are a net positive for an economy: It acts as a transfer of revenue allocation from low-wage employers and franchisees from Capital to Labor. It stays local and is likely to benefit the regional economy. It has aa much smaller impact on the local economy.

Food 364

Food Economy Retail Retirement 364

The Big Picture

JUNE 26, 2023

Rising rates, falling savings, increased deficits, dubious GDP : Ever since the yield curve inverted and warnings of “imminent recession” filled the air, the Philly Fed’s map of State Coincident Indexes has provided a good real-time snapshot of the state of the economy. Previously : Are We in a Recession? (No)

Economy 321

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 321

The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

What I have instead are questions about what the rest of 2022 looks like, and how deep into 2023 any damage persists. How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? How much will the economy slow in Q3 and Q4? The economy, corporate revenues, earnings, and consumer spending are to some degree path dependent.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 3, 2022

This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red). Black is 2020, Blue is 2021 and Red is 2022. The red line is for 2022, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2021. Purple is for 2021, and Red is for 2022.

Economy 189

Economy Transportation Numbers Sales 189

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

First Half 2022, NBER Edition. This is the reason why a $20 trillion, complex global economy with so many different moving parts cannot rely on an oversimplified and dumbed down definition 1 — like two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. The FRED Blog , August 29, 2022. The “recession…of H1 2022”? by Menzie Chinn.

Manufacturing 324

Manufacturing Economy Economics Sales 324

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. But if Stagflation is your reason for being negative, you run into a similar problem: Growth has been robust, unemployment low, and inflation is way below its June 2022 highs.

Advertising 321

Advertising Economics Banking Economy 321

The Big Picture

JANUARY 13, 2023

it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation. It’s natural to see a correlation between when the Fed began raising rates in March 2022, and inflation peaking soon after. December 9, 2022).

Economy 347

Economy Marketing Marketing 347